Financial Times
Demise of Mugabe shows how Maduro’s rule might end
Zimbabwe offers lessons to Venezuela, another rich land betrayed by corrupt leaders JOHN PAUL RATHBONE Add to myFT Read next fastFT Bitcoin sets another record high as crypto fever reaches Venezuela Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's president, recognised the parallels with Zimbabwe when he referred to the African nation as a 'brother country' © Reuters Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Save Save to myFT John Paul Rathbone in Mexico City 5 HOURS AGO 2 From Brazilian agricultural expertise to more general examples about military juntas, Latin America has often provided useful lessons for Africa. Lately, though, the instruction is flowing the other way, at least when it comes to Venezuela. Indeed, the overthrow of Robert Mugabe in Harare may show how the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas might end one day. The similarities are legion, running from the macroeconomic to the marital. Even Mr Maduro tacitly recognised the parallels when he condemned last month’s coup in Zimbabwe, “this brother country”. Zimbabwe’s Zanu-PF finds its corollary in Venezuela’s Socialist party. Both regimes are formally democratic but military-backed and authoritarian. Both survived economic isolation longer than expected, sat out mass civilian protests and out-manoeuvred opposition parties. Both regimes also portrayed themselves as bulwarks against imperialism, currying favour with China and Russia, while elites robbed the country. Even their first ladies have much in common. The vindictive “Gucci Grace” Mugabe has her counterpart in the Machiavellian Cilia Flores, or Venezuela’s “first combatant” as this ambitious and nepotistic politician prefers to be known. But change in Zimbabwe also suggests how Mr Maduro’s rule could end. First is the importance of losing superpower support. China strenuously denied any role in Mr Mugabe’s demise. But as one intelligence report from his spies, reviewed by Reuters, said on October 30: “China and Russia are after change . . . They are sick and tired of Mugabe’s leadership.” The same could happen in Venezuela. China has a strategic interest in Venezuela’s vast energy reserves, but only if they are pumped out of the ground. Instead, output is shrinking fast. This supports energy prices and, as the world’s largest energy importer, it runs counter to China’s geo-economic interests. Beijing, which is owed $20bn by Venezuela, has shown itself unwilling to bail out Caracas much more. Second, is the key role of insiders. In Zimbabwe, the impetus for transition came from within the corridors of power, rather than from the opposition or the streets. Mr Maduro is sensitive to such dangers. That is why he purged potential rivals last week, including the country’s ambassador to the UN, and placed generals in top positions at PDVSA, the state oil company. Having a major general, with no energy experience, run PDVSA is unlikely to improve the struggling company — just as having generals control the economy has done nothing to stop hyperinflation. It also sends a bad message to foreign partners. But by keeping the army happy, Mr Maduro cemented political control and headed off potential schisms — at least for a while. So-called “dialogue” with the opposition, as happened this weekend, buys further time. Recommended The Big Read: Venezuela debt — US, Russia and China play for high stakes Exodus the only answer for thousands of Venezuelans Zimbabwe’s neighbours take lessons from ‘soft coup’ Third, if the impetus for transition comes from within the regime, ousted figures also need a safe exit, as that makes the changeover quicker and less violent. Mr Mugabe reportedly secured a $10m payout as part of the transition deal, while corrupt insiders secured a three-month amnesty to return some of their stolen loot. Doing the same in Venezuela may seem morally repugnant, given human rights abuses and the estimated $300bn that has been stolen. It may also be a necessary quid pro quo for change. There is always a danger of over-generalising from the particular. Each country has its own dynamics. Venezuela is more squarely in US sights than Zimbabwe ever was. Nor does Mr Maduro enjoy the same stature that Mr Mugabe once did, as a former liberation fighter. But the parallels seem clear, not least the fourth lesson, the most sobering of all. The Zanu-PF under Mr Mugabe reigned for 37 years. In Venezuela, “chavismo” has ruled for just 17. Although near bankrupt, on the verge of declared default and with a population almost literally starving, it could last much longer yet.
