Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 2 (86 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
- Data di Inizio
Magician
Forumer attivo
Summary
According to the February Platts survey, Venezuela's oil production hit 1.57 million b/d.
The contrarian view isn't that Venezuela's oil production will decline, it's how much will it decline.
The implications of lower Venezuela oil production will be seen in real time via lower crude imports in the EIA weekly oil storage reports.
U.S. crude imports are coming in below the five-year average for the rest of 2018, and, as a result, we expect storage deficit to the five-year average to increase into year-end.
Venezuela's oil production will decline. This is a given and no longer a contrarian viewpoint. But looking at all the sell-side models, along with IEA's estimates, Venezuela's oil production is expected to exit 2018 year-end right around the ~1.5 to ~1.6 million b/d mark.
But, wait, Venezuela's oil production is already there? Is consensus then expecting Venezuela's oil production to remain flat for the rest of 2018? How much Venezuela's oil production will decline is now the contrarian viewpoint you can have to differentiate yourself.
For us, we don't see a scenario in which Venezuela's oil production will exit 2018 higher than 1.4 million b/d. We think the conservative view would be to assume production to decline to around ~1.3 to ~1.4 million b/d and stay flat. The aggressive view could see Venezuela's oil production decline to ~1.1 million b/d, or another ~470k b/d lower.
Whatever your assumption, just know that most sell-side and consensus estimates do not assume a steady declining Venezuela oil production for the rest of 2018. This, as we've stated before, is a contrarian viewpoint you can hold.
We are already seeing severe declines in Venezuela crude imports on a year-over-year basis. If production continues to deteriorate, then crude imports into the U.S. will drop further. Remember that Venezuela signed oil for loan agreements with China and Russia; so for every barrel lost now due to decline, the exports to other parts of the world will decline 1-for-1.
The decline in Venezuela crude exports to the U.S., along with lower year-over-year OPEC exports, are why we have crude imports into the U.S. below the five-year average for the rest of 2018. In turn, this would translate into more crude storage declines in the U.S. and increase the deficit to the five-year average.
Venezuela Oil Production Hits Its Lowest Level Since 1988 | Seeking Alpha
According to the February Platts survey, Venezuela's oil production hit 1.57 million b/d.
The contrarian view isn't that Venezuela's oil production will decline, it's how much will it decline.
The implications of lower Venezuela oil production will be seen in real time via lower crude imports in the EIA weekly oil storage reports.
U.S. crude imports are coming in below the five-year average for the rest of 2018, and, as a result, we expect storage deficit to the five-year average to increase into year-end.
Venezuela's oil production will decline. This is a given and no longer a contrarian viewpoint. But looking at all the sell-side models, along with IEA's estimates, Venezuela's oil production is expected to exit 2018 year-end right around the ~1.5 to ~1.6 million b/d mark.
But, wait, Venezuela's oil production is already there? Is consensus then expecting Venezuela's oil production to remain flat for the rest of 2018? How much Venezuela's oil production will decline is now the contrarian viewpoint you can have to differentiate yourself.
For us, we don't see a scenario in which Venezuela's oil production will exit 2018 higher than 1.4 million b/d. We think the conservative view would be to assume production to decline to around ~1.3 to ~1.4 million b/d and stay flat. The aggressive view could see Venezuela's oil production decline to ~1.1 million b/d, or another ~470k b/d lower.
Whatever your assumption, just know that most sell-side and consensus estimates do not assume a steady declining Venezuela oil production for the rest of 2018. This, as we've stated before, is a contrarian viewpoint you can hold.
We are already seeing severe declines in Venezuela crude imports on a year-over-year basis. If production continues to deteriorate, then crude imports into the U.S. will drop further. Remember that Venezuela signed oil for loan agreements with China and Russia; so for every barrel lost now due to decline, the exports to other parts of the world will decline 1-for-1.
The decline in Venezuela crude exports to the U.S., along with lower year-over-year OPEC exports, are why we have crude imports into the U.S. below the five-year average for the rest of 2018. In turn, this would translate into more crude storage declines in the U.S. and increase the deficit to the five-year average.
Venezuela Oil Production Hits Its Lowest Level Since 1988 | Seeking Alpha
sandrino
Forumer storico
36.5
Magician
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With Venezuelan hyperinflation, multinationals buck price controls
.....
Thousands of companies across the country have slowed production and at least 20 percent have stopped operating for lack of raw materials or customers, according to the most recent survey by industry association Conindustria.
Foreign companies, betting on the possibility of an eventual recovery, are maintaining minimal operations with skeleton workforces that in some cases show up only to eat at company cafeterias.
With Venezuelan hyperinflation, multinationals buck price controls
.....
Thousands of companies across the country have slowed production and at least 20 percent have stopped operating for lack of raw materials or customers, according to the most recent survey by industry association Conindustria.
Foreign companies, betting on the possibility of an eventual recovery, are maintaining minimal operations with skeleton workforces that in some cases show up only to eat at company cafeterias.
With Venezuelan hyperinflation, multinationals buck price controls
Esad
Forumer attivo
marcob77
Moderator
sul lux c'è un bid a 40 (6000 pezzi) (non sono io)
alderan74
Forumer attivo
hhah ma tu sei quello che li vuole vendere a 72?oppure e' sandrino?
sandrino
Forumer storico
Per la 43949435 volta ribadisco che non ho più un centesimo di Elecar (mi pare di aver venduto a settembre l'ultime cosette)
Esad
Forumer attivo
Ok... ora, appurato che in Germania biddano 42... che ne pensi?
Per essere un cadavere... è un cadavere costoso.
alderan74
Forumer attivo
pazientare ed aspettare se no vendere se no si ripete sempre quella..