Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 2 (22 lettori)

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF


The collapse of Venezuela's oil industry is nearly unprecedented. The only worse case in history is Iran starting in 1976. The other 20 or so episodes of large output declines look like nothing compared to Venezuela.

 

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF


We think Venezuela's economy will shrink 25% this year. Even more if blackouts persist. The cumulative contraction since 2013 is worse than Zimbabwe's in the late 90s, the deepest we could find in modern times.

 

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF


Venezuela's oil exports are falling due to sanctions and blackouts. Exports to the US dropped to zero and Europe bought substantially less since January. Asian markets remain open but it looks unlikely that they could increase demand enough to fully offset losses elsewhere.

 

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF



Venezuela's oil exports are falling sharply due to sanctions and blackouts. The drop is fast but still small in absolute terms compared to Iran's case. As waivers expire in May and repairing electricity infrastructure is unlikely, we expect exports to continue dropping.

 

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF


Venezuela's oil production fell below one mbpd in March, and has been pretty much in free fall since sanctions were imposed in January. It is conceivable that oil output falls 40% this year, leading to further import compression.

 

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF


The cost of living in Venezuela measured in black-market dollars is increasing. Technically, this is called a real appreciation and is quite common in hyperinflations. In all but one past hyperinflation where we have black market data, the cost of living in dollars increased.

 

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF


Despite lack of market access, Venezuela's external debt continued to climb in recent years due to arbitration awards and PDVSA arrears. Relative to Venezuela's capacity to generate FX (ie, exports), debt is increasing even faster because the oil industry is collapsing.

 

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF


Data through mid-March show Venezuela's oil exports continue to fall, especially if you net out oil going into floating storage. The pace of decline didn't increase with sanctions, though. It's been around 13% per month since November.

 

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF


Pressure on Indian companies to cut oil imports from Venezuela appears to be working. In the first half of March, imports fell to 373k bpd, from a high of 468k in February.

 

[tommy271]

Sergi Lanau‏ @SergiLanauIIF

Data through March 8 show US imports of Venezuelan oil are dropping like a stone due to sanctions. With Indian companies under pressure to cut imports too, the impact of sanctions may soon be significant.