in base a cosa dici che siamo in accumulo?
Io ho guardato il cot questa settimana e i commercial sono short sul grande e hanno ridotto fortemente le posizioni long sul piccolo.
Gli small traders sono long sia sul piccolo che sul grande. Fai un po' te chi sta accumulando e chi distribuendo....
Sui Cot hai ragione, ma questo, non inficia l'accumulo, ed è velocemente transitorio; la realtà è che i risparmiatori, soprattutto in america stanno ancora uscendo alla grande dai fondi azionari speculativi ed i tassi sono favorevoli ai mercati azionari, gli hedge founds poi in questo periodo,
non sono assolutamente corti.
Quando le Società quotate preferiscono tirare fuori i soldini, piuttosto che dare azioni in cambio, si dovrebbe capire che ogni storno è occasione di acquisto.
Eccoti 25 buone ragioni americane per il long:
1) Bernanke Put / QE2: Fed is not likely to disappoint in scope
2) Election : Republican momentum
3) Bush Tax Cut Extension : Some version thereof
4) 3Q EPS : Expect S&P 500 aggregate EPS to beat by 2 to 3% share weighted
5) Company Buybacks On use for high cash balances
6) Jobs : Despite a non-normalized recovery expect jobs to temporarily catch up to fixed investment
7) Performance Chase : Active managers YTD trailing benchmark by 27%
8) Synthetic Short : Hedge funds are underinvested
9) Job Security : Raise cash/short market = lose job
10) Valuation : S&P 500 is trading only 13.88x with est. 36% YoY EPS growth
11)Mergers&Acquisitions:Activity is heating up across sectors including bidding wars
12) Timing /Bear story :Euro contagion, slowing China, slow US EPS growth doesn’t manifest in 4Q
13) Low Beta Exposure : Macro Hedge fund beta estimated at -0.29
14) Soft Stimulus : Small & Mid Size Capex and Employment incentives
15) Global QE : Japan sent a significant shot over the bow of the boat
16) Low Interest Rates : Forces risk for investor that cant lock-in at historically low rates and meet obligations
17) Diverging Economic Reports : Reports are likely to not definitively validate either the Bull or Bear story through yearend
18) Election Cycle : Midterm election mid Sept to yearend tend to be positive
19)Re-flation: Fed cant re-flate the housing market.new real asset focus-stock market
20) Slowdown not a double dip : Potential PE contraction to 11, 12 or 13x wont happen in 2010, at best a 2011 phenomena
21) Un-American : I didn’t like Wall Street 2 but greed is back
22) Low corporate borrow costs : Will drive Capex
23) Emerging markets : Growth story is slowing not broken… will assist developing country exports
24) Leverage: Leverage has been taken out of the system and is creeping back in due to need
25) Rowing the Same Boat : Everyone is looking for the same pullback… to get long
