https://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/2049922
Rating e outlook ciìonfermati da s&p.
Ottima notizia visto che s&p ésolitamente l’agenzia più severa
Argentina Long-Term Ratings Affirmed At 'B+'; Outlook Remains Stable
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RATINGS
Foreign Currency: B+/Stable/B
Local Currency: B+/Stable/B
For further details see Ratings List.
OVERVIEW
- Despite increased pressures on inflation following the deprecation of the
peso amid pronounced market volatility, we expect the Macri
Administration to implement adjustment measures in the coming six months
that stabilize the Argentine economy.
- We expect that steps to credibly tighten fiscal and monetary policies,
along with a likely agreement with the International Monetary Fund,
should help sustain investor confidence and maintain the government's
access to capital market funding for its large fiscal deficits.
- We are affirming our 'B+' long-term sovereign credit ratings on Argentina
and our 'B' short-term ratings. We are also affirming our 'BB-' transfer
and convertibility assessment.
- The stable outlook incorporates our expectation that the Macri
Administration will implement austerity-based economic measures that soon
reverse the recent worsening of inflation dynamics, reduce the fiscal
deficit, and stabilize the economy.
RATING ACTION
On June 4, 2018, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B+' long-term sovereign
credit ratings on the Republic of Argentina. The outlook on the long-term
ratings remains stable. We also affirmed our short-term sovereign credit
ratings on Argentina at 'B'. At the same time, we affirmed our 'raAA'
national-scale ratings and our transfer and convertibility assessment of
'BB-'.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook incorporates our expectation that the Macri Administration
will implement additional austerity-based economic measures in the coming six
months to contain and soon reverse the deterioration in inflation dynamics,
reduce the fiscal deficit, and stabilize the economy. We expect the
government's decision to enter into an agreement with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) will help sustain investor confidence and maintain its
access to capital market funding for its large fiscal deficits. We expect that
effective implementation of corrective economic policies, including revised
budgetary targets for this year and next, will set the stage for better policy
predictability and continuity over the next several years.
We could lower the rating within the next 12 months if additional adverse
external shocks, poor economic management, or unexpected political setbacks
undermine the government's ability to accelerate the pace of economic
adjustment and implement additional austerity policies. The resulting
weakening of investor confidence would have a negative impact on the exchange
rate, inflation dynamics, government debt burden, and economic growth
prospects, leading to a downgrade.
Skillful political and economic management that results in sustained lower
inflation after a spike this year, a reduction in external vulnerabilities,
and a better-than-expected fiscal consolidation could improve Argentina's weak
financial profile, raise investor confidence, and improve prospects for
long-term GDP growth. It could also raise the predictability of long-term
economic policy-making in a country that has seen sharp changes in policies
following changes in government in the past. Signs of greater institutional
and governance effectiveness, along with progress in improving Argentina's
external and fiscal profile, could lead to an upgrade over the next 24 months.
RATIONALE
The ratings on Argentina reflect its weak fiscal and external profile, limited
monetary flexibility despite greater fluctuation of the peso, and a growing
debt burden, which is predominantly denominated in foreign currency. They also
reflect a moderate economic risk profile and our assessment of weak
institutional and governance effectiveness.
Argentina's GDP growth prospects and inflation outlook worsened in the second
quarter of 2018 following capital outflows that contributed to a depreciation
of the currency. The central bank responded to currency pressures by initially
selling foreign exchange reserves and then raising its policy interest rates
to 40% from 27% in May 2018 to try to staunch depreciation of the peso. In
addition, the government announced it would seek an IMF program to bolster
access to additional official funding and reduce uncertainty in and maintain
access to financial markets. A quick policy response is needed to stabilize
the economy and contain pressure on the currency (and on inflation). However,
the recent developments imply a further hit to GDP growth, which was already
constrained by a drought that has hurt farm output, and contribute to a rise
in inflation in 2018.
The ratings on Argentina are constrained by its reliance on external funding
to finance persistent and high fiscal deficits. We estimate the change in net
general government debt to average above 12% of GDP in 2018-2021, reflecting
fiscal deficits and the hit to the debt level coming from exposure to foreign
currency and indexation to inflation. We expect recent currency depreciation
and higher inflation to boost net general government debt and interest
payments, worsening the sovereign's debt profile.
Argentina has limited monetary flexibility despite its floating exchange rate
because of its small domestic capital markets and high inflation rate.
Political polarization and institutional weaknesses constrain the
effectiveness of democratic Argentina's institutions of governance, creating
greater uncertainty about the long-term stability of key economic policies.
Institutional and economic profile: Despite recent improvement in the quality
of economic policies, Argentina has weak political institutions