Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro.

[tommy271]

Irlanda: l'opposizione, vinte le elezioni, prepara governo

lunedì 28 febbraio 2011 09:28






DUBLINO (Reuters) - In Irlanda il principale partito d'opposizione ha detto che inizierà urgentemente i colloqui oggi per trasformare la valanga di voti ottenuta alle elezioni in un mandato per rinegoziare l'accordo di salvataggio con l'Europa.
Il Fine Gael, che ha surclassato il Fianna Fail al potere nel voto di venerdì in un momento politico durissimo, ha promesso di muoversi rapidamente per far uscire l'economia dell'ex "Tigre Celtica" dalla più grave recessione del mondo industrializzato.
Il leader del partito Enda Kenny ha solo quattro settimane per convincere la Germania, "contabile" d'Europa, ad allentare i rigidi termini imposti per concedere il prestito di 85 miliardi di euro Ue-Fondo Monetario prima che il pacchetto teso a risolvere la crisi del debito in Europa sia concordato nel summit del 24 e25 marzo.
Il Fine Gael di centrodestra è stato lanciato al potere sulla spinta di elettori arrabbiati per la crisi finanziaria del Paese e la promessa di rinegoziare il prestito con Unione Europea e Fondo monetario. E' in corsa per un vantaggio di 75 ma di poco al di sotto della maggioranza. Funzionari del partito hanno indicato come preferenza un accordo di coalizione con i laburisti di centrosinistra. ma un portavoce ha detto che si attendono i risultati definitivi oggi prima di iniziare i colloqui.
Un'alleanza con i laburisti, che si prevede conquisteranno 35 seggi, creerebbe una maggioranza di 110 dei 166 seggi, dando un forte mandato alla trattativa con i partner Ue.

 

[tommy271]

Irish Voters Reject Government, But Accept Austerity Program



- Governing Fianna Fail partly decisively rejected
- Center-right Fine Gael and center-left Labour to form government
- Program to be negotiated by time parliament sits on March 9
- Likely governing parties back austerity, renegotiation of bailout

By Eamon Quinn and Paul Hannon
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


DUBLIN -(Dow Jones)- Irish voters have decisively rejected the political party most closely associated with the rise and fall of the Celtic Tiger economy, but have largely accepted an austerity program intended to repair the government's tattered finances.

The center-right Fine Gael party will be short of an overall majority of seats in the country's new parliament, and it is likely to form a coalition government with the left-of-center Labour Party, according to early counting of votes cast in Friday's election.

"It is absolutely certain that Fine Gael will be the largest party," said Leo Varadkar, a senior Fine Gael politician who is likely to play a leading role in the new administration. "Based on the numbers we have, we will be in the low-to-mid 70s and we will have to have a coalition. Labour is the obvious party."

Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore said it was too early to be certain a coalition between his grouping and Fine Gael will form the new government.

"That is the most likely outcome, there's no doubt about that," said Eamon Gilmore, leader of the Labour Party.

At 2200 GMT, of the 59 seats that had been decided, Fine Gael had won 26 and the Labour Party 15, while Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein had won five seats each. Candidates not affiliated with a party had won eight seats.

Fine Gael had secured 36.0% of votes counted, Labour 19.5%, Fianna Fail 17.7%, and Sinn Fein 9.9%.

The center-right Fianna Fail party has been in government for the last 13 years, during which time Ireland became one of the richest countries in the world in per capita terms, and then one of the biggest victims of the global financial crisis and its own excesses.

Early counting suggests the party that has dominated Irish politics throughout its 85-year history may win just 20 seats, down from the 78 seats it won in 2007.

Diarmaid Ferriter, professor of modern history at University College Dublin, said voters had expressed deep anger about the country's economic crisis, not through violent street demonstrations but by casting ballots to drive Fianna Fail from power.
"The answer was in the polling booths," he said.

The party's reversal in fortunes will likely leave it with just one out of 47 seats in Dublin, home to a third of the country's population. That seat was secured by Brian Lenihan, the finance minister in the outgoing government who controversially decided to guarantee bonds issued by the country's troubled banks in 2008.

But while voters have rejected Fianna Fail, they haven't entirely rejected the political establishment or the austerity program demanded by the EU and the IMF.

Early counting suggests that the right-of-center Fine Gael party will win between 72 and 75 seats in the new parliament, short of the 84 it needs to govern alone. The party is committed to seeing though EUR9 billion of budget cuts between 2012 and 2014, in line with pledges made by the outgoing government when it secured EUR67.5 billion of loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in November.

The Labour Party is set to be the second largest party in the new parliament, doubling its number of seats to 38 and becoming the largest party in Dublin.

Labour wants the budget cuts to take place over a longer time frame and a different balance between spending cuts and tax rises. But both likely coalition parties are committed to renegotiating some of the terms of the bailout package, including lowering the 6.0% interest rate charged by the EU.

"The clear message from the Irish people to the IMF, EU and ECB (European Central Bank) is that the terms of the loan need to be reexamined and reopened, and voters will expect members of the new Dail (parliament) to devote themselves to this collectively," said Joan Burton, the first candidate to be elected and the Labour Party's spokesperson on the economy.

Negotiations to form a new coalition government must be completed by the time the new parliament sits for the first time on March 9.
"It is a very short period of time," Labour's Gilmore said. "But I have always been confident we could negotiate a program for government."

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny will be the next prime minister.
"We want to restore our reputation and our pride," Kenny said.

and one of his government's early tasks will be to decide how much it will invest in recapitalizing the banking system, and to what extent it should force holders of bank bonds to take losses.

The cost of the bailing out the banks by the end of December was EUR46.3 billion, but an additional EUR35 billion is available as part of the bailout agreement with the EU and IMF. Stress tests on the banks will be completed by the end of March, and Kenny has said the government will then decide how to proceed.

Ireland's debt problems already threaten the stability of the euro zone, and should Kenny seek to reschedule some of the debts of the banking system, that would mean losses for German and French banks. Even greater damage would be inflicted on banks from other euro-zone countries if the government was unable to repay its own debts.

Ireland's economic troubles are largely due to aggressive lending by the nation's banks to property developers.

The unemployment rate is edging close to 14% and 100,000 people are expected to emigrate over the next two years to find work elsewhere.

Despite the grim economic outlook and resentment at the terms of the bailout agreement with the EU and the IMF, the left-of-center Sinn Fein party failed to make a major breakthrough that would have propelled it into government. Early counting suggests it will have 12 seats, up from four in the last parliament.

It had campaigned to reject the bailout package and default on all of the bank bonds, but repay the government's debts.

With the collapse in support for Fianna Fail, a number of the family dynasties that have been a feature of Irish politics will likely come to an end. In Dublin North Central, Fianna Fail candidate Sean Haughey appears unlikely to retain his seat. He is the son and grandson of former Fianna Fail leaders and prime ministers.

Across Ireland similar stories were unfolding Saturday, and while the move from one right-of-center party to another may not seem like a revolution, for most Irish people the sudden and dramatic collapse of Fianna Fail as a national force feels like one.

***
Un quadro d'insieme della situazione.

 

[tommy271]

Analysis: Ireland's new leaders in race to renegotiate with EU


By Carmel Crimmins


DUBLIN | Mon Feb 28, 2011 5:03am EST



DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland's new leaders have a month to persuade European partners to relax the terms of a controversial bailout or risk the euro zone struggler buckling under the strain of its debts.

Enda Kenny's center-right Fine Gael party cruised to victory in a weekend parliamentary election dominated by anger at the country's economic meltdown and the harsh cure prescribed by European partners.

A Fine Gael-led government, probably in coalition with the center-left Labour Party, has no time to savor its triumph or settle into power after nearly two decades in opposition.

Starting next week, the parties' pledges to renegotiate the terms of an 85-billion-euro bailout by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund will be put to the test when Kenny goes to Helsinki on Friday for a summit of EU leaders who belong to the European People's Party, the European Parliament's center-right bloc.

He has only four weeks to persuade Europe's paymaster Germany to ease the tough terms attached to the EU's 40-billion-euros-plus in loans before a comprehensive package to resolve Europe's debt crisis is agreed at a March 24-25 summit.

Ireland's new leaders believe the bailout will bankrupt an economy still in the doldrums, a view shared by many investors who continue to steer clear of Irish debt.

"The general consensus is that the current structure of the financing coupled with the position that the ECB (European Central Bank) and Europe are taking with respect to bondholders isn't sustainable from Ireland's perspective," said Michael Cummins of Dublin-based Glas Securities.

Kenny expects Germany to agree to reduce the average rate of 5.8 percent charged on the EU loans but, while that could be sold as a victory to people back home, it will not make much difference to a debt mountain of about 155 billion euros.

Goodbody Stockbrokers estimated a hefty one percentage point cut would save 675 million euros a year, representing just 5 percent of the annual social welfare bill.

In return for relaxing terms, Europe will want something from Dublin, setting the stage for a battle royal over its low rate of corporation tax, viewed as anti-competitive in higher-tax European countries.

"We are in a moment of maximum danger on that," said Hugo Brady, senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform.

"We are hamstrung in the language of Brussels because we are askers and in the logic of Brussels askers have to give something."


NIGHTMARE SCENARIO


It is not in Europe's interests to let Ireland hang out to dry.

An Irish sovereign default would destabilize the entire currency zone and send a signal to other peripheral countries that the sort of harsh austerity measures implemented by Dublin are pointless, undermining the message the fiscally conservative Germans have been hammering home.

With this nightmare scenario in the background, Kenny is hoping Europe will make concessions beyond the interest rate.

Of greater financial significance than a cut in borrowing costs would be a green light to restructure some of the 15.4 billion euros in Irish senior bank debt not covered by a government guarantee.

Imposing losses on such bondholders would go down well with Irish voters, who believe they are being punished to protect a financial elite, but the ECB is unlikely to relent for fear of risking contagion.

Despite some hardline "burn the bondholder" rhetoric during the campaign, Dublin will not do anything without Europe's agreement given that the ECB is keeping the Irish financial system alive with 126 billion euros in emergency funding.

With German Chancellor Angela Merkel under strong domestic pressure to resist calls for Europe to buy the sovereign debt of distressed governments, Kenny is hoping for concessions elsewhere.

Specifically, he is seeking additional help for Ireland's banks, whose reckless lending sparked the bailout in the first place.
Here again, the pressure is on.

Fresh stress tests of the Irish banks will be completed by the end of March and, with mortgage arrears rising, are expected to require the state to put more capital into the lenders.

Ireland, which has already poured 46 billion euros into the banks, wants to avoid the expense of tapping a 25-billion-euro contingency fund provided for under the bailout.

Instead, Fine Gael would like Europe to ease the burden of shoring up Irish banks by taking direct stakes in the lenders or an EU-wide insurance scheme for future bank losses or long-term funding for their assets.

The next few weeks will show whether they succeed.

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda: Rehn, futuro governo rispetti impegni

Monito di Bruxelles al futuro governo irlandese: gli impegni presi in Europa vanno rispettati. E per quel che riguarda l'eventuale ribasso dei tassi di interesse sui prestiti concessi a Dublino, questo potrà essere discusso solo nel contesto di una strategia globale della UE.


A parlare è il commissario UE agli affari economici e monetari, Olli Rehn, commentando le affermazioni della leader dell'opposizione irlandese, Enda Kenny. Quest'ultima - uscita vittoriosa dalle urne - ha subito chiesto di rinegoziare il piano di aiuti Ue-Fmi da 85 miliardi di euro, soprattutto per quel che riguarda gli interessi sui prestiti, attualmente del 5,8% e giudicati «punitivi».
«Quella dei tassi di interesse è una questione chiave - ha affermato Rehn nel corso di una conferenza stampa - e mi aspetto che venga valutata in una prospettiva globale di stabilità finanziaria della zona euro e di sostenibilità del debito di tutti gli Stati membri».
Rehn ha quindi invitato il futuro governo a mantenere le promesse e ad attuare pienamente il programma di austerity negoziato con la UE e con il Fondo monetario internazionale. «Si tratta di un programma - ha sottolineato il commissario UE - essenziale per l'economia irlandese e il suo rilancio».
(ats)

(Bluewin.ch)

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda, Irlanda... la nuova primavera Irlandese!
di Andrea Mazzalai

Trend Online

 

[tommy271]

Opinioni:

IRLANDA/ John Waters: dopo il voto, il futuro si gioca ancora con l?Ue? | Pagina 1

 

[lupomar]

Per la cronaca, mi è arrivata regolarmente la cedola di quest'obbligazione LT2:

- Bank of Ireland 2019 fixed floater isin XS0186652557

sperem...

 

[tommy271]

EU-IMF bailout interest rate to be reduced

March 4, 2011

http://twitter.com/share?url=http:/...mf-bailout-interest-rate-to-be-reduced-10785/
By Sarah Kirkwood




The International Monetary Fund has said the interest rate Ireland will pay as part of the €85bn EU-IMF bailout will be reduced.
This follows technical changes in the composition of the IMF’s quotas, and may result in a fall of 19 basis points in the interest Ireland has to pay on its €22bn debt to the IMF.

The EU-IMF Bailout has been a hotly discussed issue of late

The IMF said there was no change in its policy towards Ireland.


(insideireland.ie)

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda, Fmi riduce interessi su prestito salvataggio

venerdì 4 marzo 2011 10:47



WASHINGTON, 4 marzo (Reuters) - Come conseguenza dell'aumento della quota di Dublino nel proprio capitale, l'Fmi ridurrà i tassi che l'Irlanda paga sul prestito di salvataggio concesso da Washington .
Lo ha detto ieri in tarda serata l'organismo internazionale annunciando l'aumento della quota e dei diritti di voto dell'Irlanda all'interno della riforma approvata nel 2008 per dare maggior peso all'interno del Fondo ai paesi emergenti.
La salita della quota irlandese riduce la parte del finanziamento a Dublino soggetto a sovrapprezzo, ha spiegato il Fondo, aggiungendo che la riduzione degli interessi scatterà non appena Dublino verserà la sua sottoscrizione addizionale all'Fmi. Washington ha contribuito al prestito di salvataggio per l'Irlanda con 22,5 mld di euro su un totale Fmi/Ue da 85 miliardi.
In base ai dati a disposizione oggi, il tasso medio pagato da Dublino sul prestito Fmi scenderà a 3,04% da 3,17% sul credito con durata residua inferiore ai 3 anni, mentre per quello con durata oltre il triennio calerà a 3,85% da 4,40%.

 

[tommy271]

'Resistance' to bonds action - Kenny

Updated: 18:13, Friday, 4 March 2011

The Fine Gael leader says there is considerable resistance to moves towards burden-sharing by senior bank bondholders.


The Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has said that there is considerable resistance among fellow centre-right EU leaders to any moves towards burden-sharing by senior bondholders in the banking sector.

Speaking during a summit of the European People's Party in Helsinki, Mr Kenny said, however, that there was substantial goodwill towards the problems facing the Irish economy.

Meanwhile, Europe's socialists have said the EU must grant lower interest rates to Greece and Ireland and create a 'robust' emergency loan mechanism at upcoming summits this month.

Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, head of the Party of European Socialists (PES), told a news conference in Athens that the message to EU leaders should be: 'It's time for you to decide to bring down the interest rate for Greece and Ireland.'

Labour leaders Eamon Gilmore was among the leaders meeting in Athens.


Merkel wants 'convincing' response


European leaders must deliver a convincing response to the euro zone's debt crisis regardless of a European Central Bank threat to raise interest rates, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today.

She was speaking after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet shocked markets yesterday by saying the central bank may increase rates as early as April due to inflation risks.

After talks with Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the group of euro area finance ministers, on preparations for two crucial summits this month, Merkel said they had agreed to do everything to keep the euro strong.

'Regardless of the question of the ECB and interest rates, we know that we need to put a joint package for the euro zone on the table,' she told a joint news conference.

She stressed Germany's priorities to strengthen fiscal discipline and boost economic competitiveness in the 17-nation single currency area, but did not rule out allowing the euro zone's temporary rescue fund to buy government bonds.

Asked about letting the European Financial Stability Facility purchase bonds of vulnerable members states, Merkel said: 'There is a lot of discussion going on about possible options and these need to be examined.'

The German government and the Bundesbank have publicly opposed allowing the EFSF to buy bonds or lend money to fund debt buy-backs by states in difficulty.

EU diplomats say Germany is waiting to see what commitments other countries are prepared to give at a March 11 euro zone summit before showing its hand on the rescue fund and whether to allows its full €440 billion to be lent out.

Analysts said the ECB move raised pressure on EU leaders to agree on decisive action at two crucial summits this month.

Failure would risk a savage market backlash, probably first against Portugal which is seen as the likeliest candidate to follow Greece and Ireland in needing a bailout.

The ECB did, though, decide yesterday to keep offering banks unlimited liquidity until mid-year, something Portuguese banks have relied upon.

Prime Minister George Papandreou of Greece, the first country to require a euro zone bailout, warned EU leaders of a bond market backlash against the euro zone if they fail to take bold decisions at this month's summits.

European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn also cautioned that a successful outcome to the sovereign debt crisis 'is by no means guaranteed'. Speaking at a Bank of France conference in Paris, Rehn said EU fiscal reforms must ensure sanctions for 'irresponsible behavour' were more automatic and less subject to political deliberation.


IMF reduces interest rate on Irish rescue loan


The interest rate on Ireland's International Monetary Fund loan will be reduced under changes in member countries' subscriptions and voting shares that came into effect yesterday, the IMF said.

Under the changes, which were first approved in 2008 to give emerging markets a greater say in the IMF, Ireland's subscription, or quota, will increase. 'This reduces the share of Ireland's credit that is subject to surcharges,' the IMF said in a statement.

The increase comes into effect as soon as the country pays its additional subscription to the IMF, the fund said.
A second round of quota increases, approved last year, will further reduce the average lending rate once countries' governments have approved those changes.

The IMF contributed €22.5 billion to an €85 billion joint IMF/EU rescue for Ireland on November 28 to help restructure Irish banks.

Based on current interest rates for IMF special drawing rights of 0.43%, the Fund said the average lending rate on its loan to Ireland will decline to 3.04% on credit outstanding less than three years. This is down from 3.17%.

For credit outstanding for longer than three years, the rate falls to 3.85% from 4.04%, the IMF said. The IMF had signalled the reduction in January.


(rte.ie)