Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro.

[tommy271]

Anglo Irish chairman won't talk with rebel bondholders


By Matt Scuffham
DUBLIN | Thu Oct 28, 2010 5:24pm BST



DUBLIN (Reuters) - Nationalised Anglo Irish Bank's ANGIB.UL chairman Alan Dukes has ruled out talking to a dissident group of bondholders and called on them to accept a deeply discounted 1.6 billion euro ($2.2 billion) debt exchange.
Bondholders in Anglo Irish Bank are seeking to block the lender's proposed exchange of subordinated debt at a discount of 20 cents per euro.

Addressing reporters after delivering a speech to chartered accountants in Dublin, Dukes said he was not prepared to consent to the consortium of bondholders' demand for discussions aimed at reaching a "fair and consensual resolution."
"No," he said. "We have published an offer and people will decide whether they take it up or not. I hope they do."
Anglo Irish, brought under state control last year, is forcing bondholders that don't take up the offer to accept just 1 cent per 1,000 euros to redeem their floating notes due 2014, 2016 and 2017.

But a consortium of investors who hold about 690 million euros of lower Tier 2 debt are planning to vote against the offer.
"In an astonishing move, Anglo Irish is attempting to strongarm noteholders to vote in favour of the exchange offer by threatening to eliminate minority dissenting noteholders' rights to repayment of monies loaned by them to Anglo Irish," Brown Rudnick, a law firm representing the noteholders, said in a statement issued late on Wednesday.

"The noteholders believe Anglo Irish's proposal is inconsistent with principles of fair and equal treatment of creditors."
Ireland faces a bill of up to 50 billion euros to purge its banks of soured property loans and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said subordinated bondholders in Anglo Irish and other nationalised lender Irish Nationwide IRNBS.UL would have to make a contribution towards that bill.

Analysts at Glas Securities in Dublin have estimated that Dublin's bill for bailing out Anglo Irish would be cut by 1.65 billion euros if there was a 100 percent takeup of the debt swap and a repurchase of more junior Tier 1 debt also announced this month.

The bondholder meetings to approve the exchange must have a minimum attendance of holders of 66 percent of the notes, three quarters of whom must agree to the changes in order for it to pass.
Subordinated paper in both Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide have been trading at discounts of around 70 to 80 percent, reflecting impending losses.

The noteholders consortium had made several unsuccessful attempts to meet with Anglo Irish, Brown Rudnick said.
"This is unprecedented and provides for unequal treatment of the minority. We sincerely wish to meet with Anglo Irish to discuss a fair and consensual resolution," said Louise Verrill, restructuring partner at Brown Rudnick.

BAD BANK

Anglo Irish Bank's Dukes, a former leader of Ireland's main opposition party Fine Gael, also called for Ireland to set up a second state-owned "bad bank" to deal with distressed assets not being taken on by the National Asset Management Agency (Nama).

"We would then have two major banks (Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank) with cleaned up balance sheets to move forward with," he said.
NAMA was set up to take the most toxic loans out of Ireland's banks but has said it needs loans to generate income and is eying a profit of 1 billion euros over a 10-year lifespan.

Dukes said Anglo Irish, which is fully-state owned, could take on some of those loans not under NAMA control.
"We have to set up a solution in Ireland. I'm quite flexible. We would have no prescription as to how it should be run. Clearly other people have to be involved," he said.

 

[tommy271]

Brendan Keenan: Bid to calm bond markets with final roll of the dice


By Brendan Keenan

Friday October 29 2010



THERE is a scene in the Bond movie 'Goldfinger' where 007 is about to be sawn in half by a giant laser.
"You expect me to talk?" he asks Goldfinger.
"No, Mr Bond", comes the reply. "I expect you to die."
When it comes to the bond markets (no pun intended) Agents Cowen and Lenihan must know how 007 felt. What do those guys want?

Even as they laid their political lives on the table with the extraordinary plan to slash €15bn -- one tenth of national income -- off the Budget deficit in the next four years, the bond market turned up the laser.
This is the market where the loans borrowed by governments are traded.
It therefore gives a guide to what a government would have to pay to raise a new loan.

Yesterday, the rate on Irish 10-year debt reached 7pc. Given that prices are actually falling here, that is a penal "real" rate of almost 9pc.
The obvious conclusion is that the €15bn plan has failed, before it even started.
Its main goal was to turn market sentiment, so that the Government can do next year's borrowing at affordable rates. Paying 7pc is not affordable.

There is still a while to go. The Government, in the shape of the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), does not need to borrow money until early next year. But attitudes will need to change before then. They still might, but it looks an uphill task.
It is not all about the €15bn. It has been a bad week in general for the "peripheral" countries of the euro area -- Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. The original Greek deficit was confirmed at 15pc of GDP. At the start of the crisis, the official figure said 3pc.
Perhaps of more significance were the political troubles of the minority government in Portugal, where budget talks with the main opposition party ended in failure.

The opposition socialists have enough votes to defeat the government, but say they will wait until the budget debate next week before deciding how to vote.
Lenders do not like that kind of uncertainty. But again, what matter is the state of play when the government -- whoever is in it -- comes looking for fresh loans. In this context, the idea of an early Irish Budget cannot be ruled out.
The current strategy is to publish a detailed four-year plan in the next two weeks; to be followed by implementation of the first year's measures in a Budget on December 7.

The whole idea causes deep revulsion among officials and politicians.
Finance officials do not like the constraints on policy which such a method imposes -- even though something like it is the norm in Britain and many other EU states.
Politicians quail at the pressure they will come under to soften the blows during the four-week gap -- and then during the four-year marathon correction which follows.

Publishing the plan and having the Budget on the same day at least avoids the four-week lobbyfest.
It would also allow the markets to see that the measures had actually been passed in the Budget. (Or not, if that turned out to be the case).
Political uncertainty is part of the mix. Not surprisingly, the attempt at political consensus did not get very far. But the tone of this week's Dail debate was quite different from previous outings.

Both Fine Gael and Labour were talking like people who might be taking the actual decisions before too long.
Anyone lending to the Irish Government will be aware that a different government will probably be the one to pay him back. Will it take the same view on paying back the full amount, whatever the cost? Or might it be tempted to ask him to wait longer than agreed for repayment -- or even to take a loss?

The clearer everyone can be on these issues, the better for borrowing costs. But behind political uncertainties, and "contagion" from the other peripherals, lie the great rocks of the economic recession and the banking crisis.
The Government's last throw of the dice is to produce a 2011 deficit in single figures -- less than 10pc of GDP. A €4.5bn correction, combined with a modest forecast of a 2pc rise in GDP, should do it. If it also passed in the Dail, it might just shift sentiment sufficiently.

Strangely enough, that was the view expressed yesterday, not by a government minister, but by Michael Noonan TD, the Fine Gael finance spokesman. Markets may begin to notice that there is more agreement on strategy between the parties than a first glance would suggest.
If they are not convinced, there is little doubt about what will happen some time next year -- a trip to the new EU rescue fund and the IMF for cheaper loans at 5pc.

Too much fuss can be made about that. In most cases, the austerity programme is imposed after a country seeks such assistance, and the resulting shock is associated with the outside body. In our case, the programme is already in place, and it seems unlikely that more than €15bn would be demanded.

The detail of the cuts and tax rises might change -- but quite possibly for the better. Governments can do things under external instruction that they could not get away with on their own.
A bigger worry is that Europe might use the occasion to swat the hated Irish corporation tax and spancil the financial services centre.
Looked at that way, the bond market may be our friend.


[email protected]
- Brendan Keenan
Irish Independent

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda, Alta Corte conferma struttura statale di 'bad bank'

lunedì 1 novembre 2010 13:16




DUBLINO, 1 novembre (Reuters) - L'Alta Corte irlandese ha respinto un ricorso presentato contro la struttura della "bad bank", creata da Nama (National Asset Management Agency), il cui ruolo era quello di riscattare le dubbie ipoteche da parte delle banche.
Paddy McKillen, co-proprietario del Clarence Hotel di Dublino insieme con i membri del gruppo rock degli U2 Bono e The Edge, aveva fatto la prima denuncia contro Nama per cercare di fermare il riscatto di circa 2,1 miliardi di euro di prestiti garantiti dal suo patrimonio.
I suoi avvocati sostenevano che i prestiti di McKillen sarebbero stati restituiti e che Nama non avrebbe dovuto prendere in consegna i suoi beni.
Nama deve fare prestiti per generare reddito. Se Paddy McKillen avesse avuto successo, altri avrebbero potuto avviare azioni analoghe e quindi depauperare la struttura finanziaria, tagliando il flusso di cassa e forzando il governo già fortemente indebitato a colmare tale lacuna.
Inoltre si sarebbe ostacolata una ripresa del mercato immobiliare con transazioni che sarebbero rimaste in sospeso.
"In sintesi, la Corte ha concluso che il Nama Act è una risposta proporzionata alla gravissima situazione finanziaria in cui lo stato si trova e che ha particolare rilevanza per le istituzioni finanziarie all'interno dello stato" recita la sentenza, letta dal Presidente dell'Alta Corte Irlandese, il giudica Nicholas Kearns.
Gli avvocati di Nama aveva sostenuto che la banca centrale, l'organo di vigilanza finanziario e la Commissione europea considerano i prestiti di McKillen un rischio tale da meritare l'inclusione nel Nama, non meritando un trattamento speciale.
Nama ha acquisito crediti per un valore nominale di 73 miliardi di euro e l'agenzia ha detto in luglio che circa un quarto di essi avrebbe pordotto reddito.
L'agenzia sta pensando a un utile di 1 miliardo di euro su una durata di 10 anni, ma ha detto che potrebbe anche fare 800 milioni di perdite in uno scenario più "stressato" [ID: nLDE66522B].
In settembre, Brendan McDonagh capo di NAMA aveva detto che l'agenzia era in trattative avanzate per vendere circa 500 milioni di euro di asset con l'idea di ripagare 20 miliardi di prestiti entro il 2013. Esso ha acquisito quasi il 40% dei prestiti e si aspetta di concludere la maggior parte dei trasferimenti entro la fine dell'anno.

 

[tommy271]

Allied Irish Banks: Sale Of UK Business On Hold



By Quentin Fottrell
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


DUBLIN (Dow Jones)--Allied Irish Banks PLC's (AIB, ALBK.DB) proposed sale of its U.K. business is on hold due to insufficient bids, new executive Chairman David Hodgkinson said Monday, making it more likely that the government will end up with an even larger majority stake.

The bank has been trying to sell its U.K. business, which includes retail business First Trust Bank in Northern Ireland and commercial banks in the U.K., to reach an ambitious EUR10.4 billion capital target by year-end.
Goodbody Stockbrokers estimates that selling the U.K. business at book value would give a capital release of EUR1.3 billion.
The government has already injected EUR3.5 billion in AIB in the form of preference shares.

In the event that the bank's residual capital requirement isn't met through asset sales by March 31, 2011, any shortfall will be met by the conversion of EUR1.8 billion of the government's preference shares already held in the bank, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has said.
The conversion of the other EUR1.7 billion preference shares, with a new cash investment for the balance of EUR3.7 billion in ordinary shares, will be used to underwrite a EUR5.4 billion rights issue planned for later this month.

Hodgkinson said Monday the group's shares will "never get back to where they were" after the EUR5.4 billion rights issue.
He said about 10 billion new shares will be issued, with "the vast bulk" expected to end up in government hands. There are currently just over 1 billion AIB shares in issue.
"The market price being lower than the rights issue, it would be better to go to the market than subscribe at 50 cents," Hodgkinson said.

The state has an 18.6% stake in the bank and, he added, if the rights issue if fully taken up by the government, it will end up with around 92%.
Speaking at an extraordinary general meeting at the bank's headquarters in Dublin, Hodgkinson also said he supports Lenihan's views that "senior debt holders are vital for the [bank's] future."

Lenihan has repeatedly said senior debt obligations of Irish financial institutions "rank equally with deposits and other creditors under Irish law" and he "has no plans to change this position."
Also Monday, Hodgkinson said an in-depth review of the bank will be conducted and will likely take about three months. "I believe we can achieve a huge amount in a fairly short time," he said, adding that outside help will be brought in to help stress test the bank's resilience.

AIB shares closed unchanged at EUR0.34 on the Irish Stock Exchange in a flat overall market.
"The first thing we have to do is stabilize the business," he added.
Hodgkinson said: "We will take our time to conduct a full international search to find the chief executive of the highest quality" to replace Colm Doherty, who formally stepped down earlier Monday ahead of the EGM.

Responding to a question by a shareholder, Hodgkinson said he is paid EUR500,000 a year--the cap set out by the Lenihan on senior bank management salaries at those financial institutions receiving state support.
The EGM was held to approve the sale of the bank's 22.4% stake in M&T Bank Corp. (MTB), one of the strongest regional banks in the U.S., in a public offering.
Late Monday, the bank said that the resolution had passed.

The bank has completed the offering of 26.7 million notes at $77.50 a note, which will be converted into M&T shares on approval by AIB shareholders. Hodgkinson said it will generate a capital gain of around EUR900 million toward the bank's capital requirements.
AIB has already raised about EUR2.5 billion from the sale of a stake in Poland's Bank Zachodni WBK (BZW.WA) to Spain's largest bank by assets, Banco Santander SA (SAN.MC).

 

[tommy271]

Irish/German yield spread marks new record high


LONDON | Mon Nov 1, 2010 12:23pm EDT



LONDON Nov 1 (Reuters) - The premium investors demand to hold Irish debt rather than core German Bunds hit a euro record high on Monday as holiday-thinned euro zone markets got a number of reminders about the possibility of a debt restructuring.

The Irish Mail on Sunday said the European Central Bank had already pumped 260 billion euros into the country's ailing economy -- Ireland's finance ministry had no immediate comment on the report -- while a commentary in the Irish Independent looked at the risk of Ireland needing IMF aid next year.

Proposals to reform the EU treaty, taking the euro zone a step closer to a permanent mechanism for resolving debt crises, were also weighing on peripheral debt [ID:nWEA5472].
"There's not much confidence in the market and just to throw the idea out there, to remind about the possibility of restructuring, is going to cause volatility," said a trader.

"Whichever way it goes, even if it's doing the right thing in the end, it's the journey there that's going to matter."
The Irish 10-year bond yield was up almost 30 bps from Friday at 7.29 percent, widening the spread over German Bunds 26 bps to 481 bps.

***
Banche e pressioni sui periferici si fanno sentire ...

 

[tommy271]

Bond yields top 7 per cent




STEVEN CARROLL


Irish bond yields reached a new peak above 7 per cent this morning.
The yield on Ireland’s 10-year bonds reached a record 720 points, or 7.2 per cent, at 10.05am.

The spread between Irish bonds and the German Bund also reached a euro-era high of 473 points.

Bond prices spiked last week following the collapse of Portugal’s budget talks, while Greece’s tax revenue shortfalls have reignited fears that peripheral European states may struggle to cut deficits.

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan said the negative developments in Greece and Portugal had helped push Irish Government bond yields up in the secondary market.

“The developments in Portugal and Greece have been negative and there has been a corresponding deterioration in Ireland’s position as a result,” Mr Lenihan told the Dáil.

“They [Irish bond yields] are very high but it’s a very thin market where Ireland is concerned at present.”


(Irish Times.com)


***
Singolare il modo di affrontare i problemi del sig. Lenihan

 

[tommy271]

Ireland Sovereign CDS Hits Record Wide Level - Markit



LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The Irish five-year credit default swap spread widened to a new record level Tuesday, according to data provider Markit.
The five-year credit default swap spread on Ireland was 27 basis points wider at 525 basis points, according to Markit. This means it now costs an average of $525,000 a year to insure $10 million of debt issued by the company.
CDS are tradable, over-the-counter derivatives that function like a default insurance contract for debt. If a borrower defaults, the protection buyer is paid compensation by the protection seller. Swap buyers may be protecting investments they own or simply making bearish bets against countries.

 

[tommy271]

Irish Bonds Decline for a Sixth Consecutive Day on Concern Over Budget Gap

By Keith Jenkins - Nov 2, 2010 11:55 AM GMT+0100 Tue Nov 02 10:55:11 GMT 2010


Irish bonds fell, driving the extra yield investors demand to hold the securities instead of German debt to a record, on mounting concern the nation will struggle to reduce its budget deficit.

Irish 10-year bonds fell for a sixth straight day as Finance Minister Brian Lenihan tries to put together a 2011 budget by Dec. 7 that convinces investors he can get the country’s finances in order.
The yield spread against bunds, the euro region’s benchmark securities, gained 12 basis points to 474 basis points, the most since Bloomberg began collecting the data in 1991. Greek bonds fell for a seventh day, their longest losing streak since April, while the German 10-year bund rose.

“Peripherals are being driven lower on concern over budget deficits, and sentiment is very fragile,” said Michael Leister, a fixed-income analyst at WestLB AG in Dusseldorf, Germany. “Investors and market participants are looking for ways out of Ireland, Portugal as well as Greece. This selloff in peripherals may continue.”

The yield on Ireland’s 10-year bond climbed 12 basis points to 7.36 percent as of 10:29 p.m. in London. The 5 percent security due October 2020 fell 0.72, or 7.2 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,398) face amount, to 83.78.
The German 10-year bund yield fell one basis point to 2.47 percent.

The Greek 10-year bond yield surged 22 basis points to 11 percent, the highest level since Sept. 24, based on closing prices. The Greek-German spread rose 19 basis points to 841 basis points, the most since Sept. 28.

Portuguese 10-year bonds dropped, pushing the yield up six basis points to 6.24 percent, the highest since Oct. 12. The Portuguese-German spread widened six basis points to 368 basis points, the most since Oct. 14.

German bonds have returned 8.2 percent this year, compared with an 8.7 percent gain for U.S. Treasuries, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. Greek bonds have lost 16 percent, while Irish debt has lost 6.9 percent. Portuguese bonds have lost 5.7 percent, the indexes show.

(Bloomberg)

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda, spread su bund e Cds salgono a massimi storici

martedì 2 novembre 2010 13:21



LONDRA, 2 novembre (Reuters) - Tornano le pressioni sui titoli di stati irlandesi e di alcuni altri paesi periferici, Spagna, Portogallo e Grecia.
Il premio chiesto dagli investitori per detenere titoli irlandesi a 10 anni piuttosto che tedeschi ha visto stamane un nuovo massimo storico, mentre quello relativo ai titoli spagnoli e greci è salito al massimo di un mese, in una nuova ondata di acquisti rifugio sul bund.
Parallelamente anche le quotazioni dei Cds (credit default swap) si sono allargate, con quello dell'Irlanda che ha toccato, anche in questo caso, un nuovo massimo storico.
Lo spread di rendimento tra decennali di Irlanda e Germania IE10YT=TWEBDE10YT=TWEB dopo aver toccato stamane il nuovo massimo storico di 486 bp, attorno alle ore 13,00 italiane quota 475 pb secondo TradeWeb, mentre il Cds ha segnato un massimo storico a 525 pb, secondo dati Markit.
Lo spread della Grecia GR10YT=TWEBDE10YT=TWEB dopo aver segnato il massimo di un mese a 857 bp alla stessa ora è a 842 pb, mentre il suo Cds si è allargato di 20 pb a 850 pb.
L'analogo spread della Spagna ES10YT=TWEBDE10YT=TWEB si dopo un massimo di un mese di 188 bp segnato stamane, alla stessa ora è a 183 pb.
Lo spread del Portogallo quota a metà seduta 366 pb (+4,60 pb) e il Cds si è allargato di 15 pb a 410 pb.
"Stiamo assistendo a una generale ondata di flight to quality, con gli investitori, che nell'incertezza circa ciò che deciderà la Fed, vedono come cosa migliore da fare rifugiarsi sui titoli più sicuri come i bund" dice un dealer a Londra.
La Federal Reserve è attesa rendere noto stasera il suo nuovo piano di quantitative easing.

 

[tommy271]

ECB Bought Irish Government Bonds Tuesday - Source



LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The European Central Bank bought Irish government bonds Tuesday, as the yield spreads between Irish and German government bonds hit record-wide levels, a person familiar with the trades said Tuesday.
"The ECB was not active yesterday because of the European holidays but was in the market today," the person said.