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Gazprom reported relatively healthy 9M14 results on 29 January despite a deteriorating operating environment. The company was able to retain a robust liquidity cushion and maintain low net leverage, as well as high EBITDA margins. Ongoing negotiations on pre-payments for the gas deal with China; the risk of a downgrade (in case the Russian sovereign is downgraded further) and lower gas prices (due to low oil prices) – combined with constrained access to the international debt market – will put pressure on the credit in 2015. However, we expect the company's credit metrics to be supported by its strong fundamental metrics and its robust capacity to generate cash. We, therefore, reiterate our fundamental overweight recommendation and see Gazprom as one of the strongest credits in Russia.
■Sales were on an upward trend despite the adverse operating environment. Gazprom’s revenue increased by 6.2% yoy to USD 113.1bn despite 5.8% lower export sales volumes. Revenue was aided by the depreciation of the RUB, which made up for lower USD prices. However, growing operating costs (led by taxes and staff and transit expenses) and the cost of goods for resale somewhat constrained EBITDA development, which slid marginally by 0.7% yoy to USD 42.1bn. Moreover, yoy growth of almost three fold in provisions for gas debt (to USD 3.9bn) drove the bottom line to contract by 34.7%, to USD 16.2bn, as of 9M14.
■With net leverage at 0.7x, Gazprom’s credit metrics remain robust. EBITDA was unchanged yoy. Thus, total debt/EBITDA also stood at 1.1x in 9M14, which is the same level as nine months earlier. At the same time, 7.4% growth in cash and cash equivalents (USD 19.5bn as of 9M14) over the first nine months of 2014 had very little effect on net leverage. The net debt/EBITDA ratio stood at 0.7x and was among the lowest values Gazprom has ever reported. We expect the company to further improve its gross and net leverage positions to 0.9x and 0.5x respectively in 2015, as refinancing options are rather limited for Russian credits.
■The company enjoys strong liquidity and manageable short-term debt. As of 9M14, Gazprom’s cash cushion amounted to USD 19.5bn, which is sufficient to cover short-term debt of USD 8.4bn. Furthermore, having placed a USD 700mn one-year bond, and having borrowed EUR 390mn from UniCredit Bank and EUR 350mn from Intesa Sanpaolo on top of local marker borrowing, Gazprom was able to refinance a large part of its short-term debt in 4Q14 and January 2015. Additionally, the company generated USD 10.5bn of free cash flow over the first nine months of 2014. Gazprom reviewed and changed its estimates for the 2015 capex program to RUB 840bn (USD 16bn). However, this is still lower than actual spending of USD 23.6bn in 9M14 and 43.9bn in 2013. We do not rule out the possibility of further upward revision as infrastructure projects, aimed at supplying China and Turkey with gas, get underway.
■At the end of 2014, Gazprom decided not to go ahead with the South Stream project which would have linked Russia with the EU and bypassed Ukraine. Instead, the company will build a pipeline to Turkey and Greece using the existing South Stream infrastructure. However, we do not rule out that Gazprom could, in the medium-to-long term, expand the Turkish Stream pipeline and construct additional pipelines towards Bulgaria, as per the original project. In our view, the changes are credit neutral in the short-term, as construction costs are unlikely to vary significantly. In the longer run, Gazprom could benefit from a more diversified pipeline distribution system.