BUND BOND BAND lo stress-test del pork col Tarp del blog di Gipa VM under 69

Bank of America, Citigroup, GMAC Need More Capital (Update2)

By Rebecca Christie
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and GMAC LLC are among the companies judged to need additional capital according to results of regulators’ stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks.
Bank of America has the biggest shortfall, at $34 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Citigroup’s requirement for deeper reserves to offset potential losses over the coming two years is about $5 billion, people with knowledge of that bank’s results said. Wells Fargo requires about $15 billion, while GMAC’s need is $11.5 billion, one person said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, MetLife Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of New York Mellon Corp. and American Express Co. were deemed not to need additional funds, the results show.
Stocks rallied after the news, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index to its highest level in four months. The results are the culmination of weeks of investigations, led by the Federal Reserve, into the banks’ lending practices, funding strategies and securities and loan portfolios.
“The markets are telling us we’re in a recovery and the banks are beginning to heal, :rolleyes:William Isaac, former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said in an interview today. The end of the stress tests after “three months of water torture” is providing investors some relief, he said.
Common Equity
The regulators put an emphasis in their reviews on tangible common equity. Citigroup’s assessment reflects the New York- based bank’s previously announced plan to convert some of its preferred shares into common stock.
Spokespeople for all of the 10 banks declined to comment.
The S&P 500 Financials Index rose 5.9 percent as of 3:39 p.m. in New York. The broader S&P 500 Stock Index was up 1 percent at 913.22.
“For the most part, the results being leaked are better than what was anticipated,” said Mark Bronzo, a money manager at Security Global Investors, which oversees $21 billion in Irvington, New York. Investors are “surprised at names like MetLife and Morgan Stanley don’t need to raise more capital” and “the fact that Citigroup only has to do $5 billion more,” :help: he said.
Banks’ Strategies
For firms judged to have additional capital needs, regulators have detailed options including conversions of preferred shares, asset sales and raising new funds from private investors. Lenders may outline their strategies to add capital, or in other cases buy out government stakes, after tomorrow’s official release of the results.
Should the banks needing bigger capital buffers opt to convert the Treasury’s preferred shares, the government will have a bigger ownership stake. Officials may set limits on those companies’ dividends and political lobbying.
While it’s unlikely to influence day-to-day operations, the government won’t be a “hands-off” investor and will take steps to ensure that management is “effective,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told lawmakers yesterday.
“It’s obviously not our intention or desire to have long- term government ownership of banks,” Bernanke said at the congressional Joint Economic Committee. Still, he added that it would likely be a “few years” before banks can end their dependence on government capital.
Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. bank by assets, requires about $15 billion, a person familiar with the matter said. The San Francisco-based bank got $25 billion in taxpayer funds last year. Wells Fargo spokeswoman Julia Tunis Bernard declined to comment.
The bank’s shares have dropped 13 percent since it acquired Wachovia Corp. in December. Investors have been concerned that losses in Wachovia’s $482 billion loan book, which includes $118 billion of option adjustable-rate mortgages, will hurt Wells Fargo’s balance sheet and erode capital.
In accordance with accounting rules, Wells Fargo took initial writedowns on $37.2 billion of Wachovia’s troubled loans.
Chairman Richard Kovacevich in March called the administration’s stress-testing program “asinine” and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett, whose company is Wells Fargo’s biggest shareholder, said May 3 that Wells Fargo didn’t need any more capital.
Issuing Debt
Banks that want to return money injected by the Treasury since October must show they can borrow from private investors without a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. guarantee, according to people familiar with the matter. The Treasury may unveil conditions for repaying funds to its $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program as soon as today, they said.
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon have each sold debt without FDIC guarantees in the past month. Bank of New York Mellon said proceeds from its May 5 sale will be used to help repay the $3 billion capital injection it got from the TARP last year.
“Going forward, we just need banks be able to issue debt without the FDIC backing -- that’s the next stage for these bank names in terms of evaluating their health,” said Bronzo at Security Global Investors.
People familiar with the matter said May 4 that about 10 of the 19 firms will be deemed to need additional capital. The number increased from six to eight a week ago after regulators boosted their target for the reserves the firms must hold.
Financial Yardstick
Officials favor tangible common equity equal to about 4 percent of a bank’s assets, up from an earlier target of 3 percent, people with knowledge of the deliberations said last week. The financial yardstick strips out intangible assets, goodwill -- the premium above net assets paid for acquisitions - - and preferred stock, including shares issued to the Treasury.
Bank of America’s capital shortfall is the biggest among the 19 banks, people familiar with the matter said yesterday. Spokesman Scott Silvestri in Charlotte, North Carolina, declined to comment. Analysts’ estimates of the company’s shortage of common equity have ranged from zero to as much as $100 billion.
Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis, 62, was ousted as chairman on April 29 after shareholders rebelled against management’s handling of the Merrill Lynch & Co. takeover.
Bank of America is considering selling part of its stake in China Construction Bank Corp. immediately instead of in a few weeks, the Financial Times reported.
Citigroup’s Steps
While Citigroup has received the biggest rescue so far among commercial banks, it has taken steps in recent weeks to bolster its capital. The New York-based company plans to get a $2.5 billion boost to tangible common equity from selling brokerage and investment banking units in Japan. It’s also pushing to complete a venture with Morgan Stanley ahead of schedule to lock in a $5.8 billion gain, people familiar with the matter said.
Citigroup spokesman Stephen Cohen declined to comment.
JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said April 16 that he could repay the New York-based firm’s $25 billion in taxpayer funds “tomorrow” and referred to the money as “a scarlet letter.” Repayment would free the company from compensation restrictions and other oversight.
JPMorgan spokesman Joseph Evangelisti in New York declined to comment.
MetLife, the largest U.S. life insurer, parted ways with its biggest rivals by not seeking funds from the TARP.
American Express Co., the biggest U.S. credit-card company by purchases, beat analysts’ profit estimates and said April 23 that it intends to repay the government’s rescue-fund investment.
Morgan Stanley converted to a bank in September to gain access to financing from the Fed after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. went bankrupt, damaging investor confidence in securities firms. In October the company raised $9 billion in cash by selling a 21 percent stake to Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and got $10 billion investment in TARP money.
The company has slashed leverage and assets on its balance sheet and scaled back risky activities like principal investing and proprietary trading. It cut its dividend 81 percent last month to 5 cents.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rebecca Christie in Washington at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 6, 2009 16:03 EDT

Lo sviluppo e il lancio delle notizie relative allo stress test è stato un capolavoro mediatico, massimo rispetto a chi ha gestito tutto ciò.... :):cool:
 
E' domani il giorno del giudizio della madre di tutti gli Stress :D ???
Questi, intanto, appena possono comprano anche su un ritracciamento dello 0.01% :rolleyes: ... quando i torelli affamati avranno finito di brucare le lettere - forse perche sottopesati e inondati di liquidità che non rende - si chiuderanno alle loro spalle i recinti e si tornerà a dire che il mercato deve scendere, e scenderà, perchè i fondamentali macro ancora non ci sono, la crisi è meno peggio del previsto ma servirà del tempo per uscirne, bla bla, bla, insomma, li avranno spremuti per bene su flussi e direzione. Gastro dixit :-o


gooood mornung bbbbanda

ben detto gastro
 
Lo sviluppo e il lancio delle notizie relative allo stress test è stato un capolavoro mediatico, massimo rispetto a chi ha gestito tutto ciò.... :):cool:


vero
acuta osservazione

resta da vedere i prossimi 10 gg come andranno, ma fin qui è stato un piccolo capolavoro :rolleyes:
 
Lo sviluppo e il lancio delle notizie relative allo stress test è stato un capolavoro mediatico, massimo rispetto a chi ha gestito tutto ciò.... :):cool:

Guten Morgen,
in effetti l'alternativa al capolavoro era il disastro...

Fed’s Bank Test Results ‘Reassuring,’ Show No Insolvency Risk


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1Z1GJ_q03NY&refer=home#

By Rebecca Christie
May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Federal regulators today unveil what Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said will be a “reassuring” picture of a U.S. banking system able to withstand whatever stresses the recession may inflict on it once a handful of institutions add to their capital base.
Federal Reserve stress tests on the 19 biggest lenders show Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. together require about $54 billion, said people familiar with the conclusions. At the same time, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. have enough capital to help prop up flows of credit to businesses and consumers grappling with the worst recession in five decades.
“There is very significant cushions in these institutions today, and all Americans should be confident that these institutions are going to be viable institutions going forward,” Geithner said :-o yesterday in an interview with PBS television’s Charlie Rose program.
Bank stocks surged yesterday in anticipation that firms won’t need as much capital as once projected; the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index rallied 8 percent. Officials favor filling the shortfall by converting preferred shares into common stock, enabling the Obama administration to keep aside most of the $110 billion left in the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Geithner Bernanke
Geithner, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair and Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan are scheduled to brief reporters in Washington before the 5 p.m. release of the results.
The results are the culmination of weeks of investigations into the banks’ lending practices, funding strategies and securities and loan portfolios. Regulators said yesterday that banks that have to bolster their capital will have until June 8 to develop a plan and until Nov. 9 to implement it.
Officials put an emphasis in their reviews on tangible common equity, requiring the companies to have the equivalent of 4 percent of their assets after adjusting for risk. The financial yardstick strips out intangible assets, goodwill --the premium above net assets paid for acquisitions -- and preferred stock, including shares issued to the Treasury.
The reviews were designed to ensure the firms could sustain lending even if house prices, gross domestic product and the job market deteriorate more than most economists anticipate.
Stock Rally
The S&P 500 Financials Index yesterday reached its highest level in four months. The broader S&P 500 Stock Index closed up 1.7 percent at 919.53. Citigroup jumped 17 percent to $3.86, Wells Fargo advanced 15 percent to $26.84 and MetLife Inc. gained 17 percent to $32.35.
Before news of most of the banks’ results emerged, “there was some portion of the market that was buying into the doomsday stuff, that the banks are insolvent,” said David Trone, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller in New York. “There couldn’t be a wilder swing in sentiment between my client conversations in early March versus” yesterday, he said.
Bank of America has the biggest shortfall, at $34 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Citigroup’s requirement is about $5 billion, after incorporating the bank’s previously announced plan to convert some of its preferred shares into common stock, people with knowledge of its results said.
Wells Fargo needs about $15 billion, while GMAC LLC’s gap is $11.5 billion, one person said.
No Needs
MetLife, American Express, BB&T Corp. and Capital One Financial Corp. were deemed not to need additional funds, according to the results.
Morgan Stanley may need between $1 billion and $2 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Any capital requirement would result from Morgan Stanley’s plans to pay $2.7 billion to take control of Citigroup’s Smith Barney brokerage venture, one of the people said.
Spokespeople for all of the 12 banks declined to comment.
For firms judged to have additional capital needs, regulators have detailed options including conversions of preferred shares, asset sales and raising new funds from private investors.
Should the banks needing bigger capital buffers opt to convert the Treasury’s preferred shares, the government will have a bigger ownership stake. Officials may set limits on those companies’ dividends and political lobbying.
Management Changes
White House spokesman Robert Gibbs yesterday suggested that the Obama administration may seek management changes at some banks. Officials will want to “ensure that going forward they felt that the management was in place to remedy the situation and ensure long-term viability without continued government assistance,” he said.
Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis, 62, was ousted as chairman on April 29 after shareholders rebelled against management’s handling of the Merrill Lynch & Co. takeover.
Banks that want to return money injected by the Treasury since October must show they can borrow from private investors without a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. guarantee, according to people familiar with the matter.
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon have each sold debt without FDIC guarantees in the past month. Bank of New York Mellon said proceeds from its May 5 sale will be used to help repay the $3 billion capital injection it got from the $700 billion TARP last year.
‘Next Stage’
“Going forward, we just need banks to be able to issue debt without the FDIC backing -- that’s the next stage for these bank names in terms of evaluating their health,” said Mark Bronzo, a money manager at Security Global Investors, which oversees $21 billion in Irvington, New York.
Institutions that need to raise their capital levels “need to look to nongovernment sources first, the FDIC’s Bair told lawmakers at a hearing yesterday in Washington. “The Treasury can be there as a backstop.”
The Treasury estimates about $110 billion remains to be distributed from the TARP. Geithner has said about $25 billion of the program’s funds are likely to be repaid in coming months. Lawmakers have warned that a political outcry against bailouts for Wall Street makes it impossible to count on authorizing an increase of TARP.
For many banks, the government’s stamp of approval may point to an exit from the TARP. The fund was initially aimed at boosting public confidence in banks by making the government a shareholder. Bernanke said May 5 it “helped us dodge what would have been a truly cataclysmic collapse of the global banking system.”
Lawmakers’ Ire
Congress later used the program to increase scrutiny of Wall Street, and passed legislation imposing executive pay limits. In February, lawmakers called eight bank chief executive officers to Washington to face criticism for outsized compensation and perks at a time when firms racked up losses.
JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said April 16 that he could repay the New York-based firm’s $25 billion in taxpayer funds “tomorrow” and referred to the money as “a scarlet letter.” Repayment would free the company from compensation restrictions and other oversight.
MetLife, the largest U.S. life insurer, parted ways with its biggest rivals by not seeking funds from the TARP.
American Express Co., the biggest U.S. credit-card company by purchases, beat analysts’ profit estimates and said April 23 that it intends to repay the government’s rescue-fund investment.
 
...ma c'è pure chi pensa che...

Global Crisis ‘Vastly Worse’ Than 1930s, Taleb Says (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaw1G6d30PO8&refer=home#

By Shiyin Chen and Netty Ismail


May 7 (Bloomberg) -- The current global crisis is “vastly worse” than the 1930s as financial systems and economies worldwide have become more interdependent, “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said.
The global economy is heading into a “big deflation,” though the risks of inflation are increasing as governments print more money, Taleb said at a conference in Singapore today. Gold and copper may “rally massively” as a result, he added.
“The gravity of the situation is vastly worse than the thirties,” Taleb said. “Navigating the world is much harder than in the 1930s.”
The International Monetary Fund last month cut its world economic growth forecasts and said the global recession will be deeper and the recovery slower than previously predicted as financial markets take longer to stabilize. The world economy will contract 1.3 percent this year, the IMF said.
“This is the most difficult period of humanity that we’re going through today because governments have no control,” :eek: Taleb told the conference organized by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. “They had in the 1930s. Today they have no control.”
Taleb is a professor of risk engineering at New York University and also advises Universa Investments LP, a Santa Monica, California-based firm opened in 2007 by Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s former trading partner.
Pressure on Currencies
Gold, copper and other “assets that China will like” are the best investment bets as currencies including the dollar and euro face pressures, Taleb said.
Gold, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge against accelerating consumer prices, jumped to a record $1,032.70 an ounce March 17, 2008. The metal for immediate delivery traded little changed at $910.88 at 12:32 p.m. Singapore time, up 3.6 percent this year.
Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange has surged 55 percent this year on speculation demand will rebound as the global economy recovers from its worst recession since World War II. The metal, seen by some investors as a gauge of economic growth, stood at $4,748 a metric ton today.
Commodity prices are also gaining amid signs that China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package is beginning to work in Asia’s second largest economy. Quarter-on-quarter growth improved significantly in the first three months of 2009, the Chinese central bank said yesterday, without giving figures.
Hedge Funds
China will avoid a recession this year, though it will not be able to pull Asia out of its economic slump as the region still depends on U.S. demand, Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis, said in an interview with Bloomberg News yesterday.
Taleb said he was more worried about hedge funds than banks because of the risks they are taking.
“The risks won’t be taken by banks but by hedge funds,” he said. “How many hedge funds has the government bailed out? None. The banks are no longer going to be in that business of taking risks; they’re going to be facilitating other risk takers.” :mmmm:
 
...ma c'è pure chi pensa che...

Global Crisis ‘Vastly Worse’ Than 1930s, Taleb Says (Update2)



By Shiyin Chen and Netty Ismail


May 7 (Bloomberg) -- The current global crisis is “vastly worse” than the 1930s as financial systems and economies worldwide have become more interdependent, “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said.
The global economy is heading into a “big deflation,” though the risks of inflation are increasing as governments print more money, Taleb said at a conference in Singapore today. Gold and copper may “rally massively” as a result, he added.
“The gravity of the situation is vastly worse than the thirties,” Taleb said. “Navigating the world is much harder than in the 1930s.”
The International Monetary Fund last month cut its world economic growth forecasts and said the global recession will be deeper and the recovery slower than previously predicted as financial markets take longer to stabilize. The world economy will contract 1.3 percent this year, the IMF said.
“This is the most difficult period of humanity that we’re going through today because governments have no control,” :eek: Taleb told the conference organized by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. “They had in the 1930s. Today they have no control.”
Taleb is a professor of risk engineering at New York University and also advises Universa Investments LP, a Santa Monica, California-based firm opened in 2007 by Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s former trading partner.
Pressure on Currencies
Gold, copper and other “assets that China will like” are the best investment bets as currencies including the dollar and euro face pressures, Taleb said.
Gold, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge against accelerating consumer prices, jumped to a record $1,032.70 an ounce March 17, 2008. The metal for immediate delivery traded little changed at $910.88 at 12:32 p.m. Singapore time, up 3.6 percent this year.
Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange has surged 55 percent this year on speculation demand will rebound as the global economy recovers from its worst recession since World War II. The metal, seen by some investors as a gauge of economic growth, stood at $4,748 a metric ton today.
Commodity prices are also gaining amid signs that China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package is beginning to work in Asia’s second largest economy. Quarter-on-quarter growth improved significantly in the first three months of 2009, the Chinese central bank said yesterday, without giving figures.
Hedge Funds
China will avoid a recession this year, though it will not be able to pull Asia out of its economic slump as the region still depends on U.S. demand, Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis, said in an interview with Bloomberg News yesterday.
Taleb said he was more worried about hedge funds than banks because of the risks they are taking.
“The risks won’t be taken by banks but by hedge funds,” he said. “How many hedge funds has the government bailed out? None. The banks are no longer going to be in that business of taking risks; they’re going to be facilitating other risk takers.” :mmmm:


grazie
Taleb .... dopo leggo con calma
dopo ... è stasera :help:
 
vero
acuta osservazione

resta da vedere i prossimi 10 gg come andranno, ma fin qui è stato un piccolo capolavoro :rolleyes:

Sell in may and go away :D ???
Spremendo per benino chi era sottopesato han fatto dei bei soldini.
A livello specifico di settore banking, mettendo insieme i pezzi, mi viene da pensare che il governo US abbia cercato di usare pugno di ferro in guanto di velluto: fate quello che diciamo noi, come vogliamo noi, non mettetevi contro di noi, e in qualche modo ne veniamo fuori.
Resta da vedere come lavoreranno le banche in futuro...
 
siamo in trend rialzista di breve e medio, il trend è sicuramente tirato sia in termini di tempo che di spazio ma venendo da una correzione che in termini di violenza e durata non ha pari negli ultimi 50 anni ci sta tutto che una fase di recupero sia anche violenta e persistente.
Al momento non so quanto può durare questo rialzo, so però che le gambe su cui si regge non sono robuste e io non mi fido.

Grazie la pensiamo allo stesso modo.
Cerchero di rimanere long ma qui inizio le coperture.
 
Un bel programmino per oggi....


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