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Derivative traders see Nov US payrolls at 220,000
Fri Dec 2, 2005 08:21 AM ET
NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Derivatives auction traders on Friday, in the last of four auctions on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, bet the U.S. economy generated 214,000 jobs in November, or just above economists' expectations.
The auction, held from 7 a.m. to 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT) ended with a an "implied market forecast" of a seasonally adjusted gain of 214,000 nonfarm payrolls, just above the 211,000 figure in the previous auction on Thursday.
The median forecast of 30 economists polled by Reuters on Nov. 23 predicted that nonfarm payrolls had risen to 210,000 in November after a previously reported gain of 56,000 in October. The October figure will likely be revised.
Despite the above-consensus-forecast result, Friday's auction included a concentration of betting between 150,000 and 200,000 jobs, with investors putting a 15.9 percent probability on such an outcome. That suggests some investors are bracing for a slight downside surprise in the data.
The U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to release the November jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT).
Economic derivatives, offered by Goldman Sachs, interdealer broker ICAP and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, have had a good track record at revealing how market participants are positioned ahead of important economic indicators.
Fri Dec 2, 2005 08:21 AM ET
NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Derivatives auction traders on Friday, in the last of four auctions on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, bet the U.S. economy generated 214,000 jobs in November, or just above economists' expectations.
The auction, held from 7 a.m. to 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT) ended with a an "implied market forecast" of a seasonally adjusted gain of 214,000 nonfarm payrolls, just above the 211,000 figure in the previous auction on Thursday.
The median forecast of 30 economists polled by Reuters on Nov. 23 predicted that nonfarm payrolls had risen to 210,000 in November after a previously reported gain of 56,000 in October. The October figure will likely be revised.
Despite the above-consensus-forecast result, Friday's auction included a concentration of betting between 150,000 and 200,000 jobs, with investors putting a 15.9 percent probability on such an outcome. That suggests some investors are bracing for a slight downside surprise in the data.
The U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to release the November jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT).
Economic derivatives, offered by Goldman Sachs, interdealer broker ICAP and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, have had a good track record at revealing how market participants are positioned ahead of important economic indicators.
quindi vado a fare due passi, che altrimenti mi :zzzz: ... a dopo 
:zzz: 
