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U.S. September Payrolls Probably Fell by 150,000, Survey Shows Listen
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably lost jobs for the first time in more than two years last month after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast, economists said before a government report today.
Employers may have cut 150,000 workers from payrolls, the first drop since May 2003, after adding 169,000 employees in August, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 73 economists. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 5 percent from 4.9 percent. The report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
Katrina wiped out businesses, displaced thousands of workers and drove energy prices to records, prompting some companies to cut back on labor to make up for higher costs. Federal Reserve policy makers say they expect the effects to be short-lived, and employment may rebound as the Gulf area rebuilds.
``The labor market outside of the New Orleans area is still healthy,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Payroll growth will get back to its pre-Katrina range over the next several months, with some extra hires added in for rebuilding in 2006.''
Monthly payroll gains averaged 194,000 in this year's first eight months, up from 187,000 in the same period in 2004. Steven Wood of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, estimates the U.S. would have added 190,000 jobs if not for the storm.
In other reports today, the Commerce Department is expected to say at 10 a.m. that wholesale inventories rose 0.4 percent in August after dropping 0.1 percent a month earlier. At 3 p.m., a report from the Fed is likely to show consumer borrowing rose by $5 billion in August, following a $4.4 billion July increase, according to the median economists' estimate.
Boeing Strike
A strike at Boeing Co. may have contributed to September's job losses. Chicago-based Boeing's 19,000-member machinists' union approved a contract on Sept. 29, too late to be included in last month's payrolls. The agreement ended a 28-day walkout.
Every economist in the Bloomberg survey expects a decline in payrolls, ranging from losses of 25,000 to 350,000.
Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, damaging chemical plants, oil drilling rigs and pipelines and boosting costs for energy and other raw materials. Hurricane Rita made landfall Sept. 24, too late to count in the department's survey, which covers the pay period including the 12th of the month.
As of Oct. 1, 363,000 jobless claims spread over the previous five weeks can be traced to job losses caused by Katrina and Rita, the Labor Department said yesterday. The storm eliminated 280,000 to 400,000 jobs, the Congressional Budget Office estimated last month.
New Orleans
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said this week the city will fire as many as 3,000 employees because the government can't afford them with a depleted tax base. West Paterson, New Jersey-based Cytec Industries Inc., which makes specialty chemicals, said third- quarter profit may be reduced by as much as 16 cents a share after Katrina shut a Louisiana plant. The facility closed again after Rita disrupted natural-gas deliveries.
The hurricanes may reduce economic growth by half a percentage point in the second half of this year and will aggravate inflation pressures that were already starting to build, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig said this week. The Federal Open Market Committee last month raised interest rates to 3.75 percent, the 11th increase since 2004.
Fed policy makers and economists said the impact on growth won't be long-lasting.
``While the U.S. economy is going to face some significant challenges, the national economy will be able to withstand it and have solid growth through this transition into 2006,'' Hoenig said in an Oct. 5 speech in Casper, Wyoming.
Logistical Problems
The economic effect of Katrina will be more ``modest'' than previously estimated, even with the additional fallout from Rita, the Congressional Budget Office said Sept. 29.
Economists including Chris Rupkey at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in New York said logistical problems in the storm-ravaged areas will make it difficult for the government to get an accurate reading on payrolls.
The department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will make changes to normal payroll survey procedures for the first time ever to account for the hurricane.
For example, any non-response from areas that the Federal Emergency Management Agency designated as being flooded or as having catastrophic damage will be treated as a lost job. Previously, non-responders were automatically assumed to have the same change as similar firms in their industry. BLS said this change raises the risk that employment loss will be overstated.
Dell Factory
The bureau said that more than a third of the companies in the damaged region were based elsewhere and that officials should be able to get accurate readings from them.
There were no major changes to the household survey that determines the unemployment rate.
There are signs companies are still hiring as productivity growth slows and manufacturers handle more orders.
Dell Inc., the world's largest personal computer maker, opened a manufacturing plant in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, this week to get products to customers faster. The factory employs 350 workers.
Travis Simpson, vice president of Round Rock, Texas-based Dell's North Carolina operations, said the workforce will double to about 700 this summer and grow to 1,500 within five years.
The U.S. job market ``seems to be growing,'' said William Canfield, chief executive officer at St. Louis-based Talx Corp., in an interview Oct. 4. ``We are seeing encouraging signs.'' Talx sells employment and income information to mortgage lenders and credit card companies.
Bloomberg News
FIRM Nonfarm Unemploy Avg Hrly Avg Wkly
Payroll Rate Earnings Hours
------------------------------------------------------------
Number of replies 73 68 53 36
MEDIAN -150 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
AVERAGE -150 5.0% 0.2% 33.6
High Forecast -25 5.2% 0.4% 33.7
Low Forecast -350 4.9% 0.0% 33.5
Previous 169 4.9% 0.1% 33.7
------------------------------------------------------------
ABN Amro -125 5.1% n/a n/a
4CAST Ltd. -225 5.0% 0.2% n/a
Action Economics -75 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
AIG Global Invest. -50 5.1% 0.1% n/a
Alleti Gestielle SGR -120 5.0% n/a n/a
Argus Research Corp. -75 5.2% 0.3% 33.5
BNP Paribas -125 5.0% 0.2% n/a
B of A Securities -168 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Bantleon Bank AG -150 5.1% n/a n/a
Barclays Capital -175 5.0% 0.3% 33.7
Bayerische Landesbank -225 5.2% 0.1% 33.7
Bear Stearns -350 5.0% 0.3% n/a
Briefing.com -200 5.1% 0.3% 33.7
Calyon -185 5.0% 0.2% 33.7
CantorViewpoint -144 5.0% 0.1% 33.6
CIBC World Markets -220 5.1% 0.2% 33.6
Citigroup -25 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
Claymore Advisors -110 5.0% 0.2% 33.6
Commerzbank -120 5.0% 0.2% 33.7
Credit Agricole -200 5.0% 0.2% 33.7
Credit Suisse FB -200 5.0% 0.0% n/a
Cube Financial -190 5.0% n/a n/a
Daiwa Securities -100 4.9% n/a n/a
Danske Bank -75 5.0% n/a n/a
DekaBank -140 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Desjardins Group -198 5.1% 0.1% 33.7
Deutsche Bank Research -150 4.9% 0.2% 33.5
Deutsche PostBank -200 n/a n/a n/a
Dresdner Kleinwort -120 5.0% 0.3% n/a
Economic Outlook -175 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
Exane -150 5.0% 0.3% n/a
FTN Financial -50 5.0% 0.2% 33.5
Fortis Bank NV -100 5.1% n/a n/a
Goldman Sachs -200 4.9% 0.3% n/a
HSBC Markets -200 5.2% 0.2% n/a
HypoVereinsbank -100 5.1% n/a n/a
I.D.E.A. -150 5.0% 0.2% 33.6
ING Financial Markets -200 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
Informa Global Markets -155 5.1% 0.3% 33.7
Insight Economics -150 5.0% 0.3% 33.7
IntesaBci -75 5.1% n/a n/a
IXIS-CIB -250 5.1% 0.2% n/a
J.P. Morgan -200 5.0% 0.1% 33.7
JPMorgan Asset Mg -325 5.0% 0.1% n/a
Lehman Brothers -250 5.1% 0.4% 33.5
Macroeconomic -200 5.0% 0.3% 33.6
Merrill Lynch -80 5.0% 0.0% 33.7
Mizuho Securities -75 5.1% 0.2% 33.6
Morgan Keegan -95 4.9% n/a n/a
Morgan Stanley -220 5.1% 0.3% 33.5
National Bank Financial -100 5.2% 0.2% n/a
National City Bank -176 4.9% 0.3% n/a
Nesbitt Burns BMO -170 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Nomura -100 4.9% 0.3% 33.5
Nord/LB -130 5.1% n/a 33.7
PNC Bank -190 5.0% 0.2% 33.7
RBC Capital Markets -100 n/a n/a n/a
RBS Greenwich Capital -80 5.0% n/a n/a
Regions Financial -75 5.0% 0.1% 33.7
Ried, Thunberg & Co. -125 5.1% n/a n/a
Scotia Capital -150 n/a n/a n/a
Societe Generale -100 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Stone & McCarthy -80 5.0% 0.3% 33.6
Sumitomo -60 5.1% 0.1% 33.7
Thomson/IFR -175 5.1% 0.3% 33.7
Tullett Prebon -90 5.0% 0.2% 33.5
UBS Securities LLC -175 5.0% 0.3% 33.7
UFJ Bank -130 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Unicredit Banca Mobilare -145 5.0% n/a n/a
Wachovia -135 n/a n/a n/a
Wells Fargo -75 5.1% n/a n/a
Westpac Banking -200 n/a n/a n/a
Wrightson -200 5.1% 0.3% 33.7
To contact the reporter on this story:
Joe Richter in Washington [email protected].
Last Updated: October 7, 2005 00:05 EDT
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably lost jobs for the first time in more than two years last month after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast, economists said before a government report today.
Employers may have cut 150,000 workers from payrolls, the first drop since May 2003, after adding 169,000 employees in August, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 73 economists. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 5 percent from 4.9 percent. The report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
Katrina wiped out businesses, displaced thousands of workers and drove energy prices to records, prompting some companies to cut back on labor to make up for higher costs. Federal Reserve policy makers say they expect the effects to be short-lived, and employment may rebound as the Gulf area rebuilds.
``The labor market outside of the New Orleans area is still healthy,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Payroll growth will get back to its pre-Katrina range over the next several months, with some extra hires added in for rebuilding in 2006.''
Monthly payroll gains averaged 194,000 in this year's first eight months, up from 187,000 in the same period in 2004. Steven Wood of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, estimates the U.S. would have added 190,000 jobs if not for the storm.
In other reports today, the Commerce Department is expected to say at 10 a.m. that wholesale inventories rose 0.4 percent in August after dropping 0.1 percent a month earlier. At 3 p.m., a report from the Fed is likely to show consumer borrowing rose by $5 billion in August, following a $4.4 billion July increase, according to the median economists' estimate.
Boeing Strike
A strike at Boeing Co. may have contributed to September's job losses. Chicago-based Boeing's 19,000-member machinists' union approved a contract on Sept. 29, too late to be included in last month's payrolls. The agreement ended a 28-day walkout.
Every economist in the Bloomberg survey expects a decline in payrolls, ranging from losses of 25,000 to 350,000.
Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, damaging chemical plants, oil drilling rigs and pipelines and boosting costs for energy and other raw materials. Hurricane Rita made landfall Sept. 24, too late to count in the department's survey, which covers the pay period including the 12th of the month.
As of Oct. 1, 363,000 jobless claims spread over the previous five weeks can be traced to job losses caused by Katrina and Rita, the Labor Department said yesterday. The storm eliminated 280,000 to 400,000 jobs, the Congressional Budget Office estimated last month.
New Orleans
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said this week the city will fire as many as 3,000 employees because the government can't afford them with a depleted tax base. West Paterson, New Jersey-based Cytec Industries Inc., which makes specialty chemicals, said third- quarter profit may be reduced by as much as 16 cents a share after Katrina shut a Louisiana plant. The facility closed again after Rita disrupted natural-gas deliveries.
The hurricanes may reduce economic growth by half a percentage point in the second half of this year and will aggravate inflation pressures that were already starting to build, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig said this week. The Federal Open Market Committee last month raised interest rates to 3.75 percent, the 11th increase since 2004.
Fed policy makers and economists said the impact on growth won't be long-lasting.
``While the U.S. economy is going to face some significant challenges, the national economy will be able to withstand it and have solid growth through this transition into 2006,'' Hoenig said in an Oct. 5 speech in Casper, Wyoming.
Logistical Problems
The economic effect of Katrina will be more ``modest'' than previously estimated, even with the additional fallout from Rita, the Congressional Budget Office said Sept. 29.
Economists including Chris Rupkey at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in New York said logistical problems in the storm-ravaged areas will make it difficult for the government to get an accurate reading on payrolls.
The department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will make changes to normal payroll survey procedures for the first time ever to account for the hurricane.
For example, any non-response from areas that the Federal Emergency Management Agency designated as being flooded or as having catastrophic damage will be treated as a lost job. Previously, non-responders were automatically assumed to have the same change as similar firms in their industry. BLS said this change raises the risk that employment loss will be overstated.
Dell Factory
The bureau said that more than a third of the companies in the damaged region were based elsewhere and that officials should be able to get accurate readings from them.
There were no major changes to the household survey that determines the unemployment rate.
There are signs companies are still hiring as productivity growth slows and manufacturers handle more orders.
Dell Inc., the world's largest personal computer maker, opened a manufacturing plant in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, this week to get products to customers faster. The factory employs 350 workers.
Travis Simpson, vice president of Round Rock, Texas-based Dell's North Carolina operations, said the workforce will double to about 700 this summer and grow to 1,500 within five years.
The U.S. job market ``seems to be growing,'' said William Canfield, chief executive officer at St. Louis-based Talx Corp., in an interview Oct. 4. ``We are seeing encouraging signs.'' Talx sells employment and income information to mortgage lenders and credit card companies.
Bloomberg News
FIRM Nonfarm Unemploy Avg Hrly Avg Wkly
Payroll Rate Earnings Hours
------------------------------------------------------------
Number of replies 73 68 53 36
MEDIAN -150 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
AVERAGE -150 5.0% 0.2% 33.6
High Forecast -25 5.2% 0.4% 33.7
Low Forecast -350 4.9% 0.0% 33.5
Previous 169 4.9% 0.1% 33.7
------------------------------------------------------------
ABN Amro -125 5.1% n/a n/a
4CAST Ltd. -225 5.0% 0.2% n/a
Action Economics -75 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
AIG Global Invest. -50 5.1% 0.1% n/a
Alleti Gestielle SGR -120 5.0% n/a n/a
Argus Research Corp. -75 5.2% 0.3% 33.5
BNP Paribas -125 5.0% 0.2% n/a
B of A Securities -168 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Bantleon Bank AG -150 5.1% n/a n/a
Barclays Capital -175 5.0% 0.3% 33.7
Bayerische Landesbank -225 5.2% 0.1% 33.7
Bear Stearns -350 5.0% 0.3% n/a
Briefing.com -200 5.1% 0.3% 33.7
Calyon -185 5.0% 0.2% 33.7
CantorViewpoint -144 5.0% 0.1% 33.6
CIBC World Markets -220 5.1% 0.2% 33.6
Citigroup -25 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
Claymore Advisors -110 5.0% 0.2% 33.6
Commerzbank -120 5.0% 0.2% 33.7
Credit Agricole -200 5.0% 0.2% 33.7
Credit Suisse FB -200 5.0% 0.0% n/a
Cube Financial -190 5.0% n/a n/a
Daiwa Securities -100 4.9% n/a n/a
Danske Bank -75 5.0% n/a n/a
DekaBank -140 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Desjardins Group -198 5.1% 0.1% 33.7
Deutsche Bank Research -150 4.9% 0.2% 33.5
Deutsche PostBank -200 n/a n/a n/a
Dresdner Kleinwort -120 5.0% 0.3% n/a
Economic Outlook -175 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
Exane -150 5.0% 0.3% n/a
FTN Financial -50 5.0% 0.2% 33.5
Fortis Bank NV -100 5.1% n/a n/a
Goldman Sachs -200 4.9% 0.3% n/a
HSBC Markets -200 5.2% 0.2% n/a
HypoVereinsbank -100 5.1% n/a n/a
I.D.E.A. -150 5.0% 0.2% 33.6
ING Financial Markets -200 5.1% 0.2% 33.7
Informa Global Markets -155 5.1% 0.3% 33.7
Insight Economics -150 5.0% 0.3% 33.7
IntesaBci -75 5.1% n/a n/a
IXIS-CIB -250 5.1% 0.2% n/a
J.P. Morgan -200 5.0% 0.1% 33.7
JPMorgan Asset Mg -325 5.0% 0.1% n/a
Lehman Brothers -250 5.1% 0.4% 33.5
Macroeconomic -200 5.0% 0.3% 33.6
Merrill Lynch -80 5.0% 0.0% 33.7
Mizuho Securities -75 5.1% 0.2% 33.6
Morgan Keegan -95 4.9% n/a n/a
Morgan Stanley -220 5.1% 0.3% 33.5
National Bank Financial -100 5.2% 0.2% n/a
National City Bank -176 4.9% 0.3% n/a
Nesbitt Burns BMO -170 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Nomura -100 4.9% 0.3% 33.5
Nord/LB -130 5.1% n/a 33.7
PNC Bank -190 5.0% 0.2% 33.7
RBC Capital Markets -100 n/a n/a n/a
RBS Greenwich Capital -80 5.0% n/a n/a
Regions Financial -75 5.0% 0.1% 33.7
Ried, Thunberg & Co. -125 5.1% n/a n/a
Scotia Capital -150 n/a n/a n/a
Societe Generale -100 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Stone & McCarthy -80 5.0% 0.3% 33.6
Sumitomo -60 5.1% 0.1% 33.7
Thomson/IFR -175 5.1% 0.3% 33.7
Tullett Prebon -90 5.0% 0.2% 33.5
UBS Securities LLC -175 5.0% 0.3% 33.7
UFJ Bank -130 5.1% 0.2% n/a
Unicredit Banca Mobilare -145 5.0% n/a n/a
Wachovia -135 n/a n/a n/a
Wells Fargo -75 5.1% n/a n/a
Westpac Banking -200 n/a n/a n/a
Wrightson -200 5.1% 0.3% 33.7
To contact the reporter on this story:
Joe Richter in Washington [email protected].
Last Updated: October 7, 2005 00:05 EDT
IL CHAOS 
è un osso difficile
ma credo che proverò un long... 
... 
