anticipico ric e piazzo la reuters più recente sui treasuries, la frase di oggi , quella riportata in quasi tutti i report è :"The convexity rush is more in the mind of speculators than a reality right now", fa figo dirla a Chicago&dintorni
US Treasuries turn down after upbeat Fed minutes
(Updates prices, adds comments; changes dateline; previous NEW YORK)
By Ros Krasny
CHICAGO, Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices fell on Thursday as an upbeat ring to the Federal Open Market Committee's August minutes offset support from rising energy prices, which could act a drag on economic growth.
The FOMC in August put a positive spin on economic developments, saying economic softness would be "short lived" and that the economy was poised for stronger growth.
"The market's rolling over on this," said Gregg Cohen, a trader at CIBC World Markets. "The curve is back where it came from, the flattening trend is fully in place."
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note <US10YT=RR> rose back above the 4.00-percent threshold that it crossed on Wednesday for the first time since April. Ten-year notes were down 6/32 to yield 4.005 percent, up from 3.98 percent.
Earlier, traders focused on a spike in crude oil futures <CLc1> to within sight of record highs, which threatened to trim U.S. growth by eroding consumer spending power and business confidence.
High gasoline prices have taken a bite out of U.S. retail demand recently and are squeezing corporate profit margins in sectors such as airlines. Record high heating oil prices <HOc1> will also hurt some Americans' discretionary spending power.
Meanwhile, equities markets resumed Wednesday's decline, with the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> at a one-month low.
Earlier, a string of weak economic reports also showed an economy that is still, regardless of the FOMC's optimism, struggling to shrug off a "soft patch."
The Conference Board's leading economic indicators index for August fell by a-more-than-expected 0.3 percent, and was down for a third consecutive month.
Over the past year the index has risen by 2.2 percent, down from a 4.9 percent year-on-year growth rate that was evident in March and April.
"We doubt this signals an imminent further sharp downturn in growth, but the data make uncomfortable viewing and are not consistent with the Fed's view that the economy is regaining traction," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist, High Frequency Economics.
Also lower was the Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index for August, at +0.19 against an upwardly revised +0.53 in July, suggesting the soft patch in U.S. economic activity is lingering.
Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to 350,000 in the week ended Sept. 18, above market expectations. The four-week moving average rose to 341,000 and continuing claims were up 5,000 to 2.833 million.
Dealers said the report suggested the United States is not producing jobs at a faster pace, but the data remain subject to weather-related distortions from hurricanes that lashed Florida and adjoining areas in recent weeks.
"It's consistent with an economy probably growing at somewhere close to 3 percent, perhaps a shade under rather than much above," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4CAST Ltd.
The heavy buying some expected from the mortgage sector on fears more borrowers will prepay their mortgages -- known as convexity buying -- has not really materialized.
"The convexity rush is more in the mind of speculators than a reality right now," said one trader at a primary dealer.
The 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> was down 6/32, yielding 4.78 percent, up from 4.77 percent. Five-year notes <US5YT=RR> were down 5/32 to yield 3.28 percent, against 3.25 percent. Two-year notes <US2YT=RR> were down 2/32 at a yield of 2.49 percent
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