Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Bund, T-bond, T-note, Crude,....(vietato ai minori di 75aa)

[gastronomo]

mi hai anticipato su reuters ma raddoppio con futuresource - vedremo come il mercato assorbe questa correzione, da un punto di vista "fisiologico " ci stava, bisogna vedere se in realtà potrà anche cambiare il mood - buona notte

DJ Debt Futures Review: Late-Day Decline Tied To FOMC Minutes

By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--Interest-rate futures in Chicago slipped near the
end of Thursday's session after minutes from the Aug. 10 meeting of the
Federal Open Market Committee showed that policy-setters feel "significant"
tightening is needed over time, traders said.
Dec Treasury 10-year notes lost 11.5 ticks to 113-07.5, Dec Treasury bonds
fell 13 ticks to 113-13 and Mar Eurodollars slid 6 basis points to 97.495.
For much for the day, the market had been around little-changed levels,
but with the short end of the yield curve faring slightly better on an
unwinding of some of the curve-flattening trades that had been put on lately.
Then with an hour left in open-outcry trading, the futures turned lower
after the following statement was contained in the minutes of the Aug. 10 FOMC
meeting:
"Given the current quite low level of short-term rates, especially when
judged against the recent level of inflation, members noted that significant
cumulative policy tightening likely would be needed to foster ... price
stability and sustainable economic growth."
The short end of the curve fell most sharply, as tends to happen when the
market worries about rate hikes.
"It has to do with the Fed minutes," said a trader in the Eurodollar
pits. "There was a line saying the Fed feels they will have to tighten
significantly cumulatively. It was after the Fed minutes that the market
started to sell off.
"We had a little bit of selling, but the market wasn't particularly crazy
either."
There was a large buyer in put spreads. Locals were on the other side of
the market and had to sell the futures to hedge, the contact said.
Mar Eurodollars slipped back below nearby support that traders lately had
been putting around Tuesday's low of 97.51, bottoming at 97.49. The Dec bonds
and 10-year notes remained well above their lows for the week, however.
John Kosar, head research analyst in Chicago with Bianco Research,
pointed out that the trend in the debt market lately has been toward higher
prices and lower yields, even though certain indicators - such as commitments
of traders data and retail investor sentiment - suggest the market could be
putting in a top.
Turning to the cash 10-year notes, which move inversely to the price, he
pointed out that yields have fallen below two of three key chart points. They
have slipped below 4.13%, which was the 61.8% retracement of the March 17 to
May 14 rise. And they have fallen below 4.02%, the June 16, 2003 rising
trendline. As of shortly after the interest-rate pits closed for the day, the
range on the 10-year yield had been 3.963% to 4.029%.
The other key chart point Kosar identified was 3.89%, based on the
January 2000 descending trendline.
"In the meantime, an assortment of technical signals, including
Commitment of Traders data, futures volume and open interest, and retail
investor sentiment, have reached levels characteristic of a market top," said
Kosar. They suggest overly bullish retail investors, who are frequently wrong
at market turns, and a large net short position by commercial hedgers,
signaling a lack of conviction in higher prices.
Later, he continued, "Yields' decline below 4.13% to 4.02% is stating
very clearly that the recent trend of lower yields is very much in force,
regardless of what the marketplace is expecting or how it is positioned.
However, by the same token, we do not believe these indicators have suddenly
become irrelevant, nor should they be ignored now.
"The trend at present is clearly toward continued higher prices and lower
yields," he concluded. "However, as long as these indicators remain at extreme
levels characteristic of a peak in bond prices, we will remain skeptical of
the sustainability of this trend. Moreover, the next reversal in direction
could be particularly sharp."
Economic data on the calendar for Friday include:
--August durable goods orders, expected to be unchanged, due out at 0730
CT (1230 GMT); and
--existing-home sales, expected to slip to a 6.65 million annual rate in
August from 6.72 million in July, due out at 0900 CT (1400 GMT).

-By Allen Sykora, Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]

 

[gastronomo]

Ci metto pure Bloomberg

Treasuries Fall as Fed in August Saw Need for `Significant' Boost to Rates
Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes fell in New York after minutes of the Federal Reserve's August meeting showed policy makers saw a need for ``significant cumulative'' increases in its target interest rate for overnight bank loans.

The yield on the two-year note, among the securities most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, rose more than any of the benchmark maturities. Its move higher started Tuesday, when the Federal Reserve lifted its target a quarter percentage point to 1.75 percent.

``If the Fed is going to bring us to 2 percent or even 2 1/4 percent by year-end, with much more to go, then two-years are too rich'' at yields of 2.5 percent, said Andrew Lombara, head of U.S. government bond trading at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York. HSBC is one of 22 primary U.S. government securities dealers that trade with the Fed's New York branch.

The 2 3/8 percent note due August 2006 fell 1/8, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 23/32 at 4:10 p.m., according Cantor Fitzgerald LP, a bond broker. Its yield rose 7 basis points, or 0.067percentage point, to 2.53 percent.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on Aug. 10, released today, show that policy makers saw the lull in U.S. growth as ``short-lived'' when they voted to raise the target rate to 1.5 percent. They said ``significant cumulative policy tightening'' would likely be needed to get the economy to a point of sustainable growth without inflation.

``The Fed will continue to take out the accommodation the funds rate now offers and move to a more neutral stance,'' said Derek Doody, head of dollar fixed-income at Bank of Ireland Plc in Dublin. ``It's then a natural progression to a tightening stance, and if that occurs, bond yields have a lot higher to go.'' The 10-year yield may gain to 4.50 by year-end, he said.

`Neutral' Level

A ``neutral'' federal funds target, which Doody said is between 2 percent and 2.5 percent, is one that neither stimulates nor damps economic growth. By lifting its target rate 75 basis points this year, the Fed has removed the rate cuts enacted from November 2002 to June 2003 designed to ward off the threat of deflation.

The Fed Tuesday said that it would stick to a ``measured'' pace of rate increases amid ``relatively low'' inflation.

Traders pushed the yield on the December Eurodollar futures contract up 2.5 basis points to 2.27 percent, suggesting they expect the Fed's target to reach 2 percent by early 2005. The contract settles at a three-month lending rate that has exceeded the Fed's target by an average of 22 basis points in the past 10 years.

Yield Curve

The 4 1/4 percent note due August 2014 fell about 3/8 to 101 27/32, and its yield rose 4 basis points to 4.02 percent. Earlier today the yield fell to 3.96 percent, a five-month low, after claims for jobless benefits rose more than forecast and an index of economic indicators pointed to slower growth.

This year, the benchmark note's yield fell as low as 3.68 percent on March 16; the highest was 4.87 percent on June 14. Since September 2002, it has averaged 4.10 percent.

The gap between the yield on the two- and 10-year note, expressed on a chart as the yield curve, narrowed for a seventh day to 1.50 percentage points. The spread averaged about one percentage point in the past seven years, according to Bloomberg data.

Even with today's drop, Treasuries are headed for their best quarter since 2002 on speculation a series of rate increases by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will keep inflation in check. The rally forced traders who had bet on rising yields to reverse those positions, adding to gains in prices.

Check on Inflation

``The market is pricing in that the Fed is not going to let inflation run away,'' said Jeremy Fletcher, who manages America Century Investment Management's government bond mutual funds in Mountain View, California. ``There's some comfort in the market that the Fed is on the job.''

Treasuries rose earlier after a Labor Department report showed jobless claims rose 14,000, more than expected, to 350,000 in the week ended Saturday. The government attributed most of the increase to hurricanes Charley and Frances.

The index of leading U.S. economic indicators fell 0.3 percent in August, the third straight month of declines, the Conference Board reported. The private research group's index hasn't fallen in three consecutive months since the first quarter of 2003.

U.S. Treasuries have rallied since mid-June after their worst quarter in about 20 years partly as inflation, consumer spending and job growth were below economists' forecasts. Since the Fed's first rate increase this year on June 30, the 10-year yield has shed 73 basis points.

`Expensive Bonds'

Consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 1.7 percent in the 12 months ended in August, the Labor Department said last week. Two years ago, so-called core prices rose 2.4 percent. Subtracting core consumer prices through August, the 10-year note yields about 2.25 percent. In the decade ended December 2003, the so-called real yield averaged 3.25 percent.

``Treasuries at these levels are looking reasonably expensive,'' said Stephen Miller, a fund manager in Sydney at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, which oversees the equivalent of about $3 billion. ``Our position remains to be short bonds.''

Merrill Lynch & Co.'s U.S. Treasury Master Index is 3.85 percent higher this quarter, compared with a drop of 3.08 percent last quarter and the best performance since it gained 7.23 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, 2002. All three major U.S. stock market indexes are lower this quarter.

So-called technical analysts, who make forecasts based on price history, said the 10-year note faced resistance from investors at the 3.98 percent yield level, representing a 50 percent reversal of the yield's climb to 4.90 percent in May from 3.07 percent in June 2003.

`Resistance' Levels

A weekly close tomorrow below the 3.98 percent yield level would be ``a bullish sign,'' said Robert Kepler, a technical analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston Inc. in New York, a primary dealer. The note would face resistance again at the 3.92 percent yield level, then at 3.77 percent, representing a 62 percent reversal of the sell-off.

Much of the rise this week in 10-year notes, which serve as a benchmark for corporate and consumer borrowing rates, was due to speculation falling mortgage rates will entice homeowners to prepay their mortgage loans.

Rising prepayments mean holders of mortgage- backed securities have cash returned to them faster than they expected, leaving them to reinvest at lower rates.

The rate on the average benchmark 30-year home mortgage has fallen as a result, dropping to 5.7 percent this week -- the lowest since April -- from 5.75 percent in the prior week, according to Freddie Mac, the second-biggest purchases of U.S. mortgages. Fannie Mae is the biggest.

Mortgage investors can buy fixed-rate investments such as Treasuries for protection against rising prepayment rates. Treasuries return cash to investors at rates that don't change, boosting their value as yields decline.

``When people are forced in the market, you just don't know what is a reasonable level,'' said Gerald Lucas, head of U.S. Treasury strategy in New York at Banc of America Securities LLC, a primary dealer. ``When you have forced buying it's hard to pick a top.''

The mortgage market totals about $5.3 trillion, according to the Bond Market Association, a professional group in Washington. Marketable Treasury securities total about $3.84 billion, according the U.S. Bureau of Public Debt.

 

[gastronomo]

Volendo dare una lettura "obliqua" del movimento di oggi su US, la questione di quanto detto dalla FED ad agosto mi pare rappresenti una occasione momentanea per portare a casa profitti da parte dei lunghi - lo scenario più esteso mi pare rimanga invece intatto, inoltre sottolineo come le affermazioni della FED si riferiscono al meeting di agosto, cioè a prima che molta acqua passasse sotto i ponti... quindi mantengo un'idea di cautela - nel frattempo posto anche questa interessante, ma non determinante, considerazione

Foreign central banks sold some US Treasuries -Fed

Thu Sep 23, 2004 04:30 PM ET
NEW YORK, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks sold some U.S. Treasuries in the latest week, the first drop in their holdings in almost two months, the Federal Reserve reported on Thursday.
The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency debt kept for overseas central banks fell $4.199 billion to $1.289 trillion in the week ending Sept. 22. Total custody holdings are still up a massive $216 billion for the year so far.

The breakdown of custody holdings showed overseas central banks sold a net $3.876 billion of Treasuries. Offshore central banks now hold $1.047 trillion in Treasuries, or more than 29 percent of the entire U.S. government debt held in public hands.

Overseas central banks also cut back on agency debt, selling a net $323 million worth.

Marketable securities held in custody by the Fed for foreign official and international accounts (in Millions of dollars):

 

[Andrea 53]

buongiorno a tutti

purtroppo i BOND hanno gia recuperato terreno , se va bene il BUND potrebbe fare un giro fino a 75/80 (ripeto se va bene )

io sempre corto di uno

il GIAPPONE di nuovo sotto 11.000 se anche UE e USA restano deboli temo che in poco tempo si torni sù .

buona giornata a tutti

 

[Andrea 53]

chiuso a 84


rientrato a 89

ora devo recuperare solo 384 punti

 

[Andrea 53]

ciao bbbandaaa

stamane chiuso tutto perdita secca sul bund 4000€

poi nel pomreggio sono rientrato con 1 a 116

si vede che non mi sono scottato abbastanza

saluti a tutti

ciao Andre53, tu non puoi immaginare come ti capisco...anch'io ho
stoppato stamattina ...ne avevo 4 con media 115,80 (2 li ho presi ieri
sera in chiusura) ebbene ho stoppato a 115,95 non mi andava di vedergli
fare i 116...ebbene come vedi li ha fatti...
qualche periodo fa sino a luglio riuscivo a maneggiarlo senza scottarmi...
anzi guadagnavo qualcosina, poi il bund per me è diventato il cigno nero..
forse perchè ci siamo fissati tutti con lo short....ma tanto anche fossi stata
lunga appena vedo 10/15 tickt di gain realizzo, e qui la fregatura..mentre
quando sono in loss non riesco tanto facilmente a girarmi, comunque la
mia esperienza sul bund è che dalla mano destra mi ha dato le briciole e dalla mano sinistra si è ripreso la pagnotta, quindi per me per un pochino
di tempo ancora penso di lasciarlo al suo destino....per fortuna sui banchetti ci sono altri articoli da comprare o vendere...
ti auguro sinceramente un grosso inbocca al lupo, ciao

ciao Salvina , ho letto solo ora ! grazie di cuore

devo dire che la giornata di ieri è cambiata dopo aver letto la poesia postata da Gastro nel " caffe "

cosi ho chiuso e sono andato a fare una passeggiata al mare "adriatico"
giornata splendida

e ora vado al mercato per le cibarie , ho piazzato lo stop a 116 per salvare 50€ se dovesse risalire ciao a più tardi

 

[f4f]

bundì bbbanda




.

 

[Andrea 53]

flat a 82

-3800 e si continua

 

[gastronomo]

Buongiorno a tutti , il mattino ha l'oro in bocca quindi arrivo solo ora: sono stato a fare la spesa perchè stasera ho dei cari amici a cena - la giornata sarà quindi dedicata ai fornelli, rimettere un minimo di ordine, preparare una bella apparecchiatura - ahime non c'è rosa senza spine, devo prima sgombrare la cucina dal pentolame di ieri sera, c'è una tremenda puzza di pesce ... mi metto una molletta al naso

 

[f4f]

uè gastro

questo weekend mi metto 'ai fornelli' anche io...
voglio passare un tranquillo weekend
modellismo - programmazione - compiti dei figli
ordine in casa - vabbè l'è meij laurà