US Treasuries rally as investors re-think risk
(Adds oil jump, updates prices)
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rallied on Wednesday, winning a reprieve from recent selling pressure after a profit warning by General Motors <GM.N> hit equities and the corporate bond market.
Traders said investors worried they were not being paid enough for the risks they were taking given spreads on corporate debt had been around historic lows for months now. As spreads widened sharply after the GM news, some were shifting funds to relatively safer Treasuries.
"We're seeing a re-pricing of risk across the whole credit sector," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer.
He noted the GM news came at a time when the market was deeply short of Treasuries and the resulting pop in prices triggered technical and momentum buying.
As a result, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note <US10YT=RR> climbed 17/32 in price. Its yield dipped to 4.48 percent from 4.55 percent late Tuesday and away from a seven-month peak of 4.58 percent hit early in the week.
GM said said it now expects a first-quarter loss reflecting lower North American sales and production volumes and a tougher pricing environment. Previously it had expected to break even.
The news hurt corporate bonds, with S&P changing its outlook on GM to negative and warning it could downgrade GM to junk status at any time if it looked like the world's largest car maker was not on track to improve its financial performance in 2006 and beyond.
It also sent equities <.DJI> slipping, a fall later exacerbated by a spike in crude oil prices <0#CL:> above $56 billion a barrel.
Higher energy prices are considered a mixed bag for bonds since they act as a tax on the consumer but could also add to inflationary pressures. In this case, bond investors seemed to focus on the blow to equities and the potential drag on consumers and bid Treasuries higher.
There was even speculation among traders that GM's woes could convince the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at a slower pace or to stop at a lower level than previously planned.
But analysts seriously doubted the Fed's plans would be affected by a single company, even one as big as GM.
"The Fed would only pause on the GM news if there were some indication that the news threatens the health of the economy as a whole or the health of the financial markets as a whole," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial.
If there were signs of major dislocations, such a sharp widening in risk spreads, then the Fed could chose not to hike at its policy meeting next week, he said.
"But as long as trading remains relatively orderly, the FOMC will stick to its game plan and raise rates by another quarter point," said Low.
Still, just the chance of a less aggressive Fed helped two-year Treasury notes <US2YT=RR> jump 5/32 in price, lowering yields to 3.67 percent from 3.75 percent late Tuesday. The five-year note <US5YT=RR> rose 14/32, taking its yield to 4.13 percent from 4.23 percent.
The 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> leaped 25/32, taking yields to 4.78 percent from 4.83 percent.
The GM news overshadowed data showing the U.S. current account deficit widened to a record $187.9 billion last quarter. That equates to an annualized 6.2 percent of gross domestic product, stirring worries about how long such massive borrowing could be sustained.
A separate release also showed spare U.S. factories, utilities and mines were running at 79.4 percent of total capacity, its highest level since late 2000. That remains below levels historically associated with inflation but the rising trend will only add to worries about future price pressures.