BUND, T-BRONX, T-NOTE ... e compagnia bella (V.M. 78 Anni)
- Creatore Discussione ditropan
- Data di Inizio
gastronomo
Forumer storico
f4f ha scritto:ciao bbbanda
sk
a domani, ancora a mezza presenza...
Ciao Avv. , a domani
Ciao Andrea, la mia impressione è che si stiano un pò chiudendo le posizioni sul ponte pasquale, per certo su petrolio, cambi ed azionario - i bond rimangono un mistero
ma la forza del bund di oggi mi fà supporre ugualmente in quella direzionegastronomo
Forumer storico
US Treasuries on the mend after inflation scare
Wed Mar 23, 2005 04:10 PM ET
NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries rebounded on Wednesday despite signs of higher inflation as investors seemed to decide that a more vigilant Federal Reserve was good for bonds after all.
Early in the session, short-term yields had ratcheted up to their highest levels in more than three years after a spike in core consumer prices fanned fears of more aggressive interest rate increases.
But the market then staged a comeback, particularly longer-dated maturities, as traders seemed to determine the sell-off had gone too far too fast.
Some analysts said the Fed's strong signal on Tuesday that it would do what was needed to ward off inflation was actually a positive for fixed-income investors.
"The Fed made it clear they are very concerned about inflation and they are going to act more aggressively rather than less," said Andrew Brenner, head of fixed-income at Investec U.S.
Given that likelihood, some investors bet that the more aggressive the Fed was now, the greater the chance that it would slow the economy and pre-empt inflation.
The prospect of tame price gains in the longer-term helped the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rally 11/32 to yield 4.60 percent, down from 4.64 percent on Tuesday.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 29/32 to yield 4.86 percent, down from 4.91 percent, while the five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) added 3/32 to yield 4.59 percent.
The recovery came one day after the Fed raised interest rates a quarter point to 2.75 percent, as expected, but surprised many by highlighting evidence of inflation pressure and pricing power.
That made the market all the more sensitive, at least initially, to the upside surprise in the February consumer price data. The core measure excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent, above forecasts of a 0.2 percent gain.
Two-year note yields (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) reacted by climbing as high as 3.92 percent, the highest since mid-2001, before easing back down to 3.83 percent, still a long way from the 3.68 percent level seen just last week.
In the futures market, July fed funds (FFN5: Quote, Profile, Research) were showing a better than 50/50 chance the Fed would hike interest rates by a half percentage point at its June meeting.
At the same time however, longer-dated maturities could benefit from tighter monetary conditions over time.
"The sell-off after the Fed move was rather illogical since, really, bond investors should be reassured that the central bank is determined to fight inflation," said James Glassman, senior economist at JPMorgan.
Overall consumer prices climbed 0.4 percent last month compared with a 0.1 percent gain in January.
Still, some analysts noted that figures on wages released at the same time showed real average weekly earnings fell 0.4 percent in February to be down 0.8 percent on the year.
Given wages make up around 70 percent of the cost of production, analysts found it hard to see inflation really taking off while earnings were so subdued.
Also released on Wednesday were figures on existing home sales that showed the housing market remained resilient in February, though rising mortgage rates might temper it in months to come.
Wed Mar 23, 2005 04:10 PM ET
NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries rebounded on Wednesday despite signs of higher inflation as investors seemed to decide that a more vigilant Federal Reserve was good for bonds after all.
Early in the session, short-term yields had ratcheted up to their highest levels in more than three years after a spike in core consumer prices fanned fears of more aggressive interest rate increases.
But the market then staged a comeback, particularly longer-dated maturities, as traders seemed to determine the sell-off had gone too far too fast.
Some analysts said the Fed's strong signal on Tuesday that it would do what was needed to ward off inflation was actually a positive for fixed-income investors.
"The Fed made it clear they are very concerned about inflation and they are going to act more aggressively rather than less," said Andrew Brenner, head of fixed-income at Investec U.S.
Given that likelihood, some investors bet that the more aggressive the Fed was now, the greater the chance that it would slow the economy and pre-empt inflation.
The prospect of tame price gains in the longer-term helped the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rally 11/32 to yield 4.60 percent, down from 4.64 percent on Tuesday.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 29/32 to yield 4.86 percent, down from 4.91 percent, while the five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) added 3/32 to yield 4.59 percent.
The recovery came one day after the Fed raised interest rates a quarter point to 2.75 percent, as expected, but surprised many by highlighting evidence of inflation pressure and pricing power.
That made the market all the more sensitive, at least initially, to the upside surprise in the February consumer price data. The core measure excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent, above forecasts of a 0.2 percent gain.
Two-year note yields (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) reacted by climbing as high as 3.92 percent, the highest since mid-2001, before easing back down to 3.83 percent, still a long way from the 3.68 percent level seen just last week.
In the futures market, July fed funds (FFN5: Quote, Profile, Research) were showing a better than 50/50 chance the Fed would hike interest rates by a half percentage point at its June meeting.
At the same time however, longer-dated maturities could benefit from tighter monetary conditions over time.
"The sell-off after the Fed move was rather illogical since, really, bond investors should be reassured that the central bank is determined to fight inflation," said James Glassman, senior economist at JPMorgan.
Overall consumer prices climbed 0.4 percent last month compared with a 0.1 percent gain in January.
Still, some analysts noted that figures on wages released at the same time showed real average weekly earnings fell 0.4 percent in February to be down 0.8 percent on the year.
Given wages make up around 70 percent of the cost of production, analysts found it hard to see inflation really taking off while earnings were so subdued.
Also released on Wednesday were figures on existing home sales that showed the housing market remained resilient in February, though rising mortgage rates might temper it in months to come.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Buongiorno a tutti,
livelli sul bund per oggi
r3 118.25
r2 117.89
r1 117.72
pivot 117.53
s1 117.36
s2 117.17
s3 116.81
Credo Eurex sia chiuso sia domani sia lunedi, qualcuno lo conferma?
Occhio a questa brutta cosa...
(ANSA)-WASHINGTON, 24 MAR- Sono 14 i morti e oltre 100 i feriti dell'esplosione nella raffineria petrolifera BP nei pressi di Texas City. Ancora ignote le cause. Gli investigatori sembrano escludere cause terroristiche. Il boato e' stato sentito a 8 km di distanza dallo stabilimento. L'enorme colonna di fumo sta distruggendo edifici dentro l'impianto e lasciando una grossa buca nel terreno. I superstiti e le squadre di soccorso hanno scavato per ore tra le macerie nella speranza di trovare persone ancora in vita.
livelli sul bund per oggi
r3 118.25
r2 117.89
r1 117.72
pivot 117.53
s1 117.36
s2 117.17
s3 116.81
Credo Eurex sia chiuso sia domani sia lunedi, qualcuno lo conferma?
Occhio a questa brutta cosa...
(ANSA)-WASHINGTON, 24 MAR- Sono 14 i morti e oltre 100 i feriti dell'esplosione nella raffineria petrolifera BP nei pressi di Texas City. Ancora ignote le cause. Gli investigatori sembrano escludere cause terroristiche. Il boato e' stato sentito a 8 km di distanza dallo stabilimento. L'enorme colonna di fumo sta distruggendo edifici dentro l'impianto e lasciando una grossa buca nel terreno. I superstiti e le squadre di soccorso hanno scavato per ore tra le macerie nella speranza di trovare persone ancora in vita.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Grazie - in apparenza hai ragione, in pratica vediamo che fanno oggi pomeriggio, ancora troppi corti in giro e tensioni esogene ...
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