Bund Tbond and the bernakka's und trikeko's injection VM199
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
f4f ha scritto:
Guarda finchè la FED non taglia è difficile preventivare i movimenti.
Da una parte le commodities sono ancora eccessivamente esuberanti e ciclicamente parlando sono su un punto dal potenziale molto elevato (se riesco posto un piccolo grafico esplicativo..) per cui il taglio diventa un azzardo elevato.
Contemporanemante però il mercato lo vuole e se non gli lo danno proseguirà la fase attendista/ribassista al dilà della forte liquidità presente che continuerà ad essere parcheggiata in attesa delle decisioni FED.
f4f
翠鸟科
gipa69 ha scritto:
certo
la faccina
indicava che concordo, sarà un periodo difficile per i tradersspecie i trend-follower
specie per i EOD traders
e i sistemi quantitativi pagano caro le approssimazioni statistiche cui sono legati
il grafico commodities sarebbe mooolto interessante ....
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Come dicevo sopra al congresso non possono permettersi troppi fallimenti personali.
August 29, 2007, 3:13 pm
Text of Bernanke’s Letter to Schumer
The following is the text of a letter sent by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Sen. Charles Schumer.
The Honorable Charles E. Schumer
United States Senate
Washington, D.C. 20510
Dear Senator:
Thank you for your recent letters of August 8 and 22, in which you express concern about the potential effects of volatility in financial markets and the tightening of credit conditions on homebuyers, consumers, and the economy as a whole.
I want to assure you that the Federal Reserve, in cooperation with other federal agencies, is closely monitoring developments in financial markets. As you recognized, the Federal Reserve has also taken steps to increase liquidity in the markets. In particular, our changes to our discount window program are designed to assure depositories of the availability of a backstop source of liquidity so that concerns about funding do not constrain them from extending credit and making markets. Also, the Federal Open Market Committee has stated that it is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets.
I share your concern about the potential impact of scheduled payment resets on homeowners with variable-rate subprime mortgages. Over the next several years, many such homeowners will face significantly higher monthly payments and, consequently, an increased risk of losing their homes to forced sale or foreclosure. The federal banking regulators have encouraged banks and thrifts to work actively with troubled borrowers to modify loans or to refinance as needed to avoid default or foreclosure and have jointly issued guidances to address underwriting and disclosure practices related to subprime mortgage lending.
The twelve Federal Reserve Banks around the country are working closely with community and industry groups dedicated to reducing the risks of foreclosure and financial distress among homebuyers. The Board is also engaged in these issues; for example, Governor Randall Kroszner serves as the Federal Reserve’s representative on the board of directors of NeighborWorks America, which has a program to encourage borrowers facing mortgage payment difficulties to seek help by making early contact with their lenders, servicers, or trusted counselors. And as I noted in my testimony in July, in order to strengthen consumer protections, the Federal Reserve Board is currently undertaking a comprehensive review of the rules regarding loans subject to the Home Owner Equity Protection Act as well as some rules pertaining to mortgage-related disclosures under the Truth in Lending Act.
It might be worth considering at this juncture whether the private and public sectors, separately or in collaboration, could help the situation by developing a broader range of mortgage products which are appropriate for low-and moderate-income borrowers, including those seeking to refinance. Such products could be designed to avoid or mitigate the risk of payment shock and to be more transparent with respect to their terms. They might also contain features to improve affordability, such as variable maturities or shared-appreciation provisions for example. One public agency with considerable experience in providing home financing for low-and moderate-income borrowers is the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). The Congress might wish to consider FHA reforms that allow the agency more flexibility to design new products and to collaborate with the private sector in facilitating the refinancing of creditworthy subprime borrowers facing large resets.
As you note, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently assisting in subprime refinancings. However, the GSEs’ charters limit their ability to take on higher-risk mortgages and their programs are relevant only to a relatively small share of subprime borrowers. The GSEs should be encouraged to provide products for subprime borrowers to the extent permitted by their charters. The current caps on GSE portfolios–which were imposed for safety and soundness reasons-need not be lifted to allow them to accommodate new borrowers. Currently, the GSE portfolios include substantial holdings of GSE-guaranteed mortgage products, which are easily placed in the private secondary market even under current conditions. Thus, the GSEs could readily sell these securities to make space for new mortgages if they wished to do so. Policymakers may also want to encourage the GSEs to increase their mortgage securitization efforts, which are not constrained by their portfolio caps.
We will continue to keep the Congress informed of developments in the subprime markets and in the credit markets more generally. As you know, Federal Reserve governors and staff have made numerous appearances before the Congress and in other forums on subprime-related issues. Board staff members have continued to brief members of Congressional staffs on these matters. Board staff members are also assisting the Government Accountability Office in the report that they are preparing that will provide a comprehensive review of developments in the subprime mortgage market.
Again, thank you for your interest and please be assured that we are following these issues closely.
Sincerely,
Ben S. Bernanke
August 29, 2007, 3:13 pm
Text of Bernanke’s Letter to Schumer
The following is the text of a letter sent by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Sen. Charles Schumer.
The Honorable Charles E. Schumer
United States Senate
Washington, D.C. 20510
Dear Senator:
Thank you for your recent letters of August 8 and 22, in which you express concern about the potential effects of volatility in financial markets and the tightening of credit conditions on homebuyers, consumers, and the economy as a whole.
I want to assure you that the Federal Reserve, in cooperation with other federal agencies, is closely monitoring developments in financial markets. As you recognized, the Federal Reserve has also taken steps to increase liquidity in the markets. In particular, our changes to our discount window program are designed to assure depositories of the availability of a backstop source of liquidity so that concerns about funding do not constrain them from extending credit and making markets. Also, the Federal Open Market Committee has stated that it is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets.
I share your concern about the potential impact of scheduled payment resets on homeowners with variable-rate subprime mortgages. Over the next several years, many such homeowners will face significantly higher monthly payments and, consequently, an increased risk of losing their homes to forced sale or foreclosure. The federal banking regulators have encouraged banks and thrifts to work actively with troubled borrowers to modify loans or to refinance as needed to avoid default or foreclosure and have jointly issued guidances to address underwriting and disclosure practices related to subprime mortgage lending.
The twelve Federal Reserve Banks around the country are working closely with community and industry groups dedicated to reducing the risks of foreclosure and financial distress among homebuyers. The Board is also engaged in these issues; for example, Governor Randall Kroszner serves as the Federal Reserve’s representative on the board of directors of NeighborWorks America, which has a program to encourage borrowers facing mortgage payment difficulties to seek help by making early contact with their lenders, servicers, or trusted counselors. And as I noted in my testimony in July, in order to strengthen consumer protections, the Federal Reserve Board is currently undertaking a comprehensive review of the rules regarding loans subject to the Home Owner Equity Protection Act as well as some rules pertaining to mortgage-related disclosures under the Truth in Lending Act.
It might be worth considering at this juncture whether the private and public sectors, separately or in collaboration, could help the situation by developing a broader range of mortgage products which are appropriate for low-and moderate-income borrowers, including those seeking to refinance. Such products could be designed to avoid or mitigate the risk of payment shock and to be more transparent with respect to their terms. They might also contain features to improve affordability, such as variable maturities or shared-appreciation provisions for example. One public agency with considerable experience in providing home financing for low-and moderate-income borrowers is the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). The Congress might wish to consider FHA reforms that allow the agency more flexibility to design new products and to collaborate with the private sector in facilitating the refinancing of creditworthy subprime borrowers facing large resets.
As you note, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently assisting in subprime refinancings. However, the GSEs’ charters limit their ability to take on higher-risk mortgages and their programs are relevant only to a relatively small share of subprime borrowers. The GSEs should be encouraged to provide products for subprime borrowers to the extent permitted by their charters. The current caps on GSE portfolios–which were imposed for safety and soundness reasons-need not be lifted to allow them to accommodate new borrowers. Currently, the GSE portfolios include substantial holdings of GSE-guaranteed mortgage products, which are easily placed in the private secondary market even under current conditions. Thus, the GSEs could readily sell these securities to make space for new mortgages if they wished to do so. Policymakers may also want to encourage the GSEs to increase their mortgage securitization efforts, which are not constrained by their portfolio caps.
We will continue to keep the Congress informed of developments in the subprime markets and in the credit markets more generally. As you know, Federal Reserve governors and staff have made numerous appearances before the Congress and in other forums on subprime-related issues. Board staff members have continued to brief members of Congressional staffs on these matters. Board staff members are also assisting the Government Accountability Office in the report that they are preparing that will provide a comprehensive review of developments in the subprime mortgage market.
Again, thank you for your interest and please be assured that we are following these issues closely.
Sincerely,
Ben S. Bernanke
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Economists at ING are going over their GDP forecasts and it looks like the US will again fail to grow above 2.0%. Against this backdrop, ING believes it is difficult to see the 20%+ growth rate in commodity prices being maintained, and that activity/commodity currencies may start to underperform.
The common view now is that this financial market crisis has hit at relatively benign time, given world GDP running close to 5%. However, as Figure 1 shows, commodity prices tend to have a ‘high beta’ relationship with world real GDP growth. For example the 1998 Asian crisis deducted 1.5% from world growth enough to trigger a near 15% decline in annual commodity prices. While it is too early to forecast a similar decline in world GDP growth into 2008, it is not far fetched to believe that China’s rapid growth rates, heavily driven by net exports to the US, may slow and potentially weigh on growth rates across the rest of Asia. For example, the OECD produces a six-month annualised Composite Leading Indicator as pointers to possible turning points in the economic cycle. The OECD notes that on average a turn in these indicators may precede GDP turning points on average by six to nine months. For China, these indicators peaked in March this year and suggest there may be downside risks to our current Chinese GDP forecast of 10.5% in 2008.
The balance of risks therefore suggests commodity price indices will struggle to repeat the 20% growth rates seen over recent years. That will withdraw the Terms of Trade gains and the positive income shock enjoyed by the likes of Australia, Canada and Brazil over recent years. Such gains have been major contributors to business investment and employment growth and associated rate hikes in the G10 world.
Figure 2 attempts to assess which currencies are most closely correlated with global growth. We looked at correlations of the monthly changes between currency pairs and the OECD Leading Indicator, both over the last 60 months and since 1990. The results show stable positive relationships for AUD and CAD, while CHF, JPY and somewhat surprisingly NOK tend to represent the more ‘defensive’ end of the spectrum.
Thus it may well be that the five-year Bull run in commodities has temporarily run its course and that heading into 2008, defensive European currencies and the JPY may finally start to outperform the activity-sensitive AUD and CAD. AUD/CHF has recently bounced off long-term trend support near 0.94 and a recovery close to 1.00 could well prove a sell level for a move below 0.90 into 2008.
The common view now is that this financial market crisis has hit at relatively benign time, given world GDP running close to 5%. However, as Figure 1 shows, commodity prices tend to have a ‘high beta’ relationship with world real GDP growth. For example the 1998 Asian crisis deducted 1.5% from world growth enough to trigger a near 15% decline in annual commodity prices. While it is too early to forecast a similar decline in world GDP growth into 2008, it is not far fetched to believe that China’s rapid growth rates, heavily driven by net exports to the US, may slow and potentially weigh on growth rates across the rest of Asia. For example, the OECD produces a six-month annualised Composite Leading Indicator as pointers to possible turning points in the economic cycle. The OECD notes that on average a turn in these indicators may precede GDP turning points on average by six to nine months. For China, these indicators peaked in March this year and suggest there may be downside risks to our current Chinese GDP forecast of 10.5% in 2008.
The balance of risks therefore suggests commodity price indices will struggle to repeat the 20% growth rates seen over recent years. That will withdraw the Terms of Trade gains and the positive income shock enjoyed by the likes of Australia, Canada and Brazil over recent years. Such gains have been major contributors to business investment and employment growth and associated rate hikes in the G10 world.
Figure 2 attempts to assess which currencies are most closely correlated with global growth. We looked at correlations of the monthly changes between currency pairs and the OECD Leading Indicator, both over the last 60 months and since 1990. The results show stable positive relationships for AUD and CAD, while CHF, JPY and somewhat surprisingly NOK tend to represent the more ‘defensive’ end of the spectrum.
Thus it may well be that the five-year Bull run in commodities has temporarily run its course and that heading into 2008, defensive European currencies and the JPY may finally start to outperform the activity-sensitive AUD and CAD. AUD/CHF has recently bounced off long-term trend support near 0.94 and a recovery close to 1.00 could well prove a sell level for a move below 0.90 into 2008.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Le news di oggi non sono molto costruttive:
Bernanke non vuole portare le persone a pensare che le convulsioni dei mercati portano automaticamente al taglio dei tassi
Thu Aug 30, 3:02 AM ET
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut benchmark interest rates because it wants to break investors of the view that the central bank is there to bail them out, an article in the Wall Street Journal said on Thursday.
Fed watcher Greg Ip, without quoting specific sources, said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was keen to draw a distinction between keeping financial markets ticking over and ensuring a sound economy.
The article said there was a perception, while Alan Greenspan was chairman of the Fed, that the Fed would react to problems of financial stability by cutting rates but that Bernanke was keen to break the automatic assumption that market convulsions lead to interest rate cuts.
The Fed cut the rate it charges banks for direct loans earlier this month amid financial market turbulence but has made no change to the benchmark Fed funds rate of 5.25 percent.
"Officials acknowledge the perception of bailing out investors exists and if allowed to grow, could erode the credibility they need for keeping inflation low and encourage lax attitudes toward risk," the article said.
"They hope that taking time to weigh the economy's need for rate cuts will help discourage investors from thinking Fed officials are overly concerned with falling asset prices."
Primo fallimento in terra australiana.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOiiV71GBoaY&refer=home
In Inghilterra si alzano gli standard per la concessione dei mutui.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aqxKjVkF4kOY&refer=uk
Bernanke non vuole portare le persone a pensare che le convulsioni dei mercati portano automaticamente al taglio dei tassi
Thu Aug 30, 3:02 AM ET
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut benchmark interest rates because it wants to break investors of the view that the central bank is there to bail them out, an article in the Wall Street Journal said on Thursday.
Fed watcher Greg Ip, without quoting specific sources, said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was keen to draw a distinction between keeping financial markets ticking over and ensuring a sound economy.
The article said there was a perception, while Alan Greenspan was chairman of the Fed, that the Fed would react to problems of financial stability by cutting rates but that Bernanke was keen to break the automatic assumption that market convulsions lead to interest rate cuts.
The Fed cut the rate it charges banks for direct loans earlier this month amid financial market turbulence but has made no change to the benchmark Fed funds rate of 5.25 percent.
"Officials acknowledge the perception of bailing out investors exists and if allowed to grow, could erode the credibility they need for keeping inflation low and encourage lax attitudes toward risk," the article said.
"They hope that taking time to weigh the economy's need for rate cuts will help discourage investors from thinking Fed officials are overly concerned with falling asset prices."
Primo fallimento in terra australiana.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOiiV71GBoaY&refer=home
In Inghilterra si alzano gli standard per la concessione dei mutui.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aqxKjVkF4kOY&refer=uk
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
che vi ridete ? ocio che dalla perfida albione vi riportiamo a pagar gabole ai Savoia voi liguri neh
che vi ridete ? ocio che dalla perfida albione vi riportiamo a pagar gabole ai Savoia voi liguri neh
