quicksilver
Forumer storico
alle 20:00 dovrebbero uscire i verbali del fomc 7 agosto
Bund Tbond and the bernakka's und trikeko's injection VM199
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
quicksilver
Forumer storico
verbali che il mercato stà digerendo ma che per ora non pare gradire particolarmente
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
THE FED
FOMC discussed response to market turmoil at Aug. 7th meeting
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:10 PM ET Aug 28, 2007Print E-mail Subscribe to RSS Disable Live Quotes WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve policymakers discussed at their August 7 meeting the possible need for "a policy response" if financial market turmoil continued, according to the minutes of the meeting released Tuesday.
Members agreed a further deterioration in financial conditions "could not be ruled out and, to the extent such a development could have an adverse effect on growth prospects, might require a policy response."
In fact, financial market conditions did worsen, and only ten days later, the FOMC issued another statement, saying that worsening financial conditions had increased the downside risks to growth "appreciably." Read August 17 statement.
At the same time, the Fed cut its little-used discount rate by a half a percentage point to 5.75%. See full story.
But at the August 7 meeting, the members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee only agreed to keep a close eye on financial market conditions. They said inflation remained the most significant policy concern and unanimously voted to hold the federal funds rate target steady at 5.25% for the ninth straight meeting. Read August 7 statement.
"FOMC members expected a return to more normal market conditions, but recognized that the process likely would take some time, particularly in markets related to subprime mortgages," the minutes said.
During their meeting, the FOMC members discussed downside risks to the growth outlook from the market turmoil.
They said the adverse developments in the mortgage markets "suggested that the adjustment in the housing sector could well prove to be both deeper and more prolonged than had seemed likely earlier this year."
But there was no sign of disagreement among policymakers that inflation remained the number-one threat.
A lower dollar and poor productivity data contributed to upside risks to inflation, the minutes said.
"The data on core inflation received during the intermeeting period were favorable, but FOMC members believed that the readings for the past few months likely had been damped by transitory factors and did not provide reliable evidence that the recent level would be sustained," the minutes said.
Fed officials said that the strong labor market, growth in income and the export sector would offset the weak housing market and lead to moderate growth in coming months.
Consumer and business spending were expected to continue at a moderate pace, although there was risk that business spending could be trimmed by the turmoil in the corporate credit markets.
However, the Fed staff did trim its growth outlook for the second half of 2007 and 2008 as a result, in part, of the financial market turmoil.
The minutes released today do not include any discussion among Fed officials prior to the Aug. 17 statement.
By cutting the discount rate on Aug. 17 instead of the federal funds rate, the Fed signaled that it believes problems are mainly confined to the financial system, and are not yet impacting the broader economy. The cut in the discount rate provides funds to banks, but does little to change consumer and commercial interest rates, as a cut in the federal funds rate would do.
Despite clamoring from some quarters on Wall Street, the FOMC has not lowered its fed funds target from 5.25%. Many economists believe the FOMC will lower that rate when it meets again on Sept. 18. See full story.
FOMC discussed response to market turmoil at Aug. 7th meeting
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:10 PM ET Aug 28, 2007Print E-mail Subscribe to RSS Disable Live Quotes WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve policymakers discussed at their August 7 meeting the possible need for "a policy response" if financial market turmoil continued, according to the minutes of the meeting released Tuesday.
Members agreed a further deterioration in financial conditions "could not be ruled out and, to the extent such a development could have an adverse effect on growth prospects, might require a policy response."
In fact, financial market conditions did worsen, and only ten days later, the FOMC issued another statement, saying that worsening financial conditions had increased the downside risks to growth "appreciably." Read August 17 statement.
At the same time, the Fed cut its little-used discount rate by a half a percentage point to 5.75%. See full story.
But at the August 7 meeting, the members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee only agreed to keep a close eye on financial market conditions. They said inflation remained the most significant policy concern and unanimously voted to hold the federal funds rate target steady at 5.25% for the ninth straight meeting. Read August 7 statement.
"FOMC members expected a return to more normal market conditions, but recognized that the process likely would take some time, particularly in markets related to subprime mortgages," the minutes said.
During their meeting, the FOMC members discussed downside risks to the growth outlook from the market turmoil.
They said the adverse developments in the mortgage markets "suggested that the adjustment in the housing sector could well prove to be both deeper and more prolonged than had seemed likely earlier this year."
But there was no sign of disagreement among policymakers that inflation remained the number-one threat.
A lower dollar and poor productivity data contributed to upside risks to inflation, the minutes said.
"The data on core inflation received during the intermeeting period were favorable, but FOMC members believed that the readings for the past few months likely had been damped by transitory factors and did not provide reliable evidence that the recent level would be sustained," the minutes said.
Fed officials said that the strong labor market, growth in income and the export sector would offset the weak housing market and lead to moderate growth in coming months.
Consumer and business spending were expected to continue at a moderate pace, although there was risk that business spending could be trimmed by the turmoil in the corporate credit markets.
However, the Fed staff did trim its growth outlook for the second half of 2007 and 2008 as a result, in part, of the financial market turmoil.
The minutes released today do not include any discussion among Fed officials prior to the Aug. 17 statement.
By cutting the discount rate on Aug. 17 instead of the federal funds rate, the Fed signaled that it believes problems are mainly confined to the financial system, and are not yet impacting the broader economy. The cut in the discount rate provides funds to banks, but does little to change consumer and commercial interest rates, as a cut in the federal funds rate would do.
Despite clamoring from some quarters on Wall Street, the FOMC has not lowered its fed funds target from 5.25%. Many economists believe the FOMC will lower that rate when it meets again on Sept. 18. See full story.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Personalmente le aspettative di inflazione nelle ultime settimane sono scese e di molto intorno ai minimi degli ultimi tre anni.
La dichiarazione del 7 era secondo me ancora costruttiva nel voler spurgare gli eccessi, poi questi sono venuti a bussare alla porta della FED e questa ha dovuto dare un primo segno.
ora il mercato ne vuole chiedere un altro, almeno una dichiarazione di qualche membro della FED che ci dica che sono pronti ad intervenire in caso di deterioramento della situazione macro.
Salvo l'emergere di nuove situazioni di credito inesigibile (che darebbero una mazzata ben più grande delle precedenti perchè sarebbero un evidenza di occultamento...) il mercato in questa fase correttiva dovrebbe fermarsi prima del minimo precedente per poi ripartire al rialzo e ridurre il trading range e la conseguente volatilità fino al FOMC o fino a quando la FED non si muoverà.
La dichiarazione del 7 era secondo me ancora costruttiva nel voler spurgare gli eccessi, poi questi sono venuti a bussare alla porta della FED e questa ha dovuto dare un primo segno.
ora il mercato ne vuole chiedere un altro, almeno una dichiarazione di qualche membro della FED che ci dica che sono pronti ad intervenire in caso di deterioramento della situazione macro.
Salvo l'emergere di nuove situazioni di credito inesigibile (che darebbero una mazzata ben più grande delle precedenti perchè sarebbero un evidenza di occultamento...) il mercato in questa fase correttiva dovrebbe fermarsi prima del minimo precedente per poi ripartire al rialzo e ridurre il trading range e la conseguente volatilità fino al FOMC o fino a quando la FED non si muoverà.
quicksilver
Forumer storico
Gipa io osservando i miei grafici daily e l'andamento intraday ho la tua stessa idea, ma ammiro la tua sicurezza e capacità di esporti
nonchè le tue capacità sui temi macro
ciao
nonchè le tue capacità sui temi macro
ciao
quicksilver
Forumer storico
volumi composite 1,64 B
boh... è come se mancasse qualcuno, o forse, è la liquidità sintetica per la leva che manca?
boh... è come se mancasse qualcuno, o forse, è la liquidità sintetica per la leva che manca?
