Bund Tbond and the bernakka's und trikeko's injection VM199

[masgui]

dal punto di vista puramente tattico, 39800 circa è la mama daily

#
Multiple equations models:

* Linear General Method of Moments estimation of a system of linear equations with possibly common coefficients, including seemly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation, and estimation of fixed effect or pooled panel data models.
* VAR innovation response analysis: Sims' nonstructural VAR, and Bernanke's structural VAR analysis, including asymptotic innovation response confidence bands.




hai visto bernakka...[/b]

 

[gipa69]

Sep
5Why aren’t equities falling?
September 5, 2007 | 1 Comment
From ABN’s Global FX Daily:

… As mentioned in some recent reports one factor may be the so called sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). We know China has raised about $80bn for its new government agency that began operation this month. Bloomberg quotes Gerard Lee, CEO of Fullerton Funds Management, a division of Temasek Holdings, a Singapore state-owned investment company that manages $107 bn. He says he expects Asian stocks to rise in the next six to 12 mths as SWFs buy. It would not surprise that funds from this source that extend from Russia and Middle East oil producers to big FX reserve holders in Asia like China, Korea and Singapore are currently actively supporting equities. This of course creates competing factors. On the one hand, downward pressure on sub-prime backed assets is intensifying and SWFs are unlikely to be buying these assets. On the other, SWFs are reallocating large FX reserves into equities. This explains the disconnect between equities and credit markets. While we think the SWF factor will prevent a major melt-down in equities and broadly underpin risk appetite over the medium term. Another serious bout of equity market weakness is still likely in our view.

 

[f4f]

L'ultimo quote non esiste!

Multiple equations models:

* Linear General Method of Moments estimation of a system of linear equations with possibly common coefficients, including seemly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation, and estimation of fixed effect or pooled panel data models.
* VAR innovation response analysis: Sims' nonstructural VAR, and Bernanke's structural VAR analysis, including asymptotic innovation response confidence bands.


non capisco ....
what's the meaning of this?
where have you found it?


il mercato....
eh, va a finire che poi l'econimia reale si contagia pè davvero
e allora s'quazz a risistemare tutto

che i manovratori stiano ricattando il trikekko?
già l'han fatto col bernakka, e lui ha ceduto

 

[gipa69]

Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Put up or shut up
We are swiftly tilting towards "put up or shut up" time for My W-shaped risk asset price forecast, and indeed for those expecting a lambda as well. The next week will give us Beige Book and ADP today, ECB and BOE (who this morning took minor action to ease the liquidity squeeze) tomorrow, payrolls and services ISM on Friday, and then Lehman and Bear Stearns earnings early next week. If bad news is going to shake things up a bit, it shoud happen soon.

Risk asset shorts must be pulling their hair out (if they haven't lost it all.) The recent levitation of the S&P 500 has occurred on pretty thin volume, as the SPY chart below indicates. Any technician will tell you that such a rally is not to be trusted.....and yet it keeps drifting higher. Firm bank lending data suggests that distress in the CP market has not disrupted the credit mechanism for non-turd-buying enterprises.



Technically, meanwhile, the SPX is entering territory where it needs to start faltering if the W is gonna happen. The chart below overlays the 2007 price action (in red) with that of spring 2006 (blue.) While the day-for-day overlay has broken down over the last several weeks, the overall shape of the lines remain very, very similar. In early July 2006, the SPX attemtped to breach the 55 day moving average, but ultimately failed. This proved to be the (technical) catalyst for the buyable dip.


Yesterday, the SPX closed above the 55 day moving average for the first time since the crisis started. If the index doesn't get back below in a hurry, it will appear that the W has indeed morphed into the least popular forecast from the recent poll, the V.
For now, though, the jury's still out, and fortune may favour the brave. The risk/reward of selling stocks near current levels is excellent. I will therefore look to sell 400 ESU7 at 1490 with a stop loss at 1515, above the Wave B high. The future's currently down in early trade this morning, but would you rule out another early-session low-volume rally?

 

[f4f]

L'ultimo quote non esiste!

http://econ.la.psu.edu/~hbierens/EASYREG.HTM

 

[gipa69]

Key News
- Japan's Ministry of Finance will set up a new office within its foreign exchange market division to focus on managing the nation's huge store of foreign exchange reserves [$900 billion], a ministry official said on Wednesday. (Reuters)
- China will hold off from allowing local investors to buy Hong Kong shares directly until rules have been introduced to limit capital outflows, according to three officials at the country's banking regulator. (Bloomberg)
- "Credit-market turmoil has pushed the Libor higher, even as other short-term interest rates, such as the interest rate on Treasury bills, are falling. Higher Libor rates affect the whole economy by tightening the budgets of borrowers large and small," says Lou Crandall, chief economist with Wrightson ICAP in New York. "It hurts corporate profits and tightens household budgets, too."(WSJ)



- Australia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%. (Bloomberg)

Key Reports
7:00am: MBA mortgage application survey. Previous: -4.
7:30am: August challenger layoffs. Previous: -23.0%.
7:45am: ICSC chain store sales index for the week of September 1. Previous: +0.3%.
8:15am: ADP/Macroeconomic Advisors employment estimate non-farm payrolls forecast. Expected: +80K. Previous: +92K.
8:55am: Redbook retail sales index for the week of September 1. Previous: -0.7%.
10:00am: July pending home sales. Previous: +5.0%.
2:00pm: Fed beige book.

Quotable
"You may think that since it was all a delusion on the profit side, the loss also must have been imaginary; that if nothing was added to the wealth of the country, neither was anything taken away. But that is not the way of it. First there was the direct loss of diverting that credit from all the possible uses of production to the unproductive use of speculation. "Secondly, a great deal of it was consumed by two to three million speculators, large and small, who, with that rich feeling upon them, borrowed money on their paper profits and spent it. In this refinement of procedure what happens is that imaginary wealth is exchanged for real wealth; and real wealth is consumed by those who have produced nothing in place of it. Thirdly - and this was the terrific loss - the shock from the headlong fall of this pyramid caused all the sensitive sources and streams and waters of credit to contract in fear. The more they contracted the more fear there was, the more fear the more contraction, effect acting upon cause. The sequel was abominable pain." - Garet Garret, The Bubble That Broke The World, 1932

FX Trading
On Tuesday we dealt with risk, now it's the turn of risk aversion - choose your wedge!
Are the gold guys right? We saw a very nice move in gold prices on Tuesday. And of course the chorus of "I told you so" was sung loudly as the session ended. The gold guys love the web. Instead of ham radios from the bunkers, we get blogs and dedicated websites - sweet!

But, will the rising wedge be the undoing of the "barbarous relic?"

"The rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bullish or bearish bias, rising wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias," says StockCharts.com.
Gold futures daily:


And of course in the falling wedge camp we have everyone's favorite whipping boy - the greenback.

"The falling wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout," says StockCharts.com.
USD$ index daily:


Now we are no experts on the wedge pattern, actually we aren't experts on anything, but we do think these wedges will stop being wedges at about the same time.

If the risk appetite crowd wins, gold likely breaks above resistance to blow off and test new highs, and the dollar breaks below support down to new lows, and if the risk aversion crowd wins, vice versa.

We may soon find the answer.

 

[gipa69]

Reuters
Private sector adds 38,000 jobs in Aug: report
Wednesday September 5, 8:19 am ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers likely added 38,000 jobs in August, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday.
The result was down from the 48,000 jobs reported one month ago for July by ADP, whose employment report was jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a result of 83,000 for August.

The ADP result comes after a separate survey showed planned U.S. lay-offs rocketed in August as the housing slowdown and subprime mortgage debacle led to record job cuts in the financial sector, while markets are eagerly awaiting the government's monthly jobs report on Friday.

 

[f4f]

massacro ...
qwesti vanno al -2%

 

[Fleursdumal]

Good aft'noon a tout les bondaroles

shortsterling inglesi dic danno un 6,5% l'euribor dic sta ritestando i minimi
i problemi sono al piano di sopra

 

[f4f]

Good aft'noon a tout les bondaroles

shortsterling inglesi dic danno un 6,5% l'euribor dic sta ritestando i minimi
i problemi sono al piano di sopra

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1188998861ssz7.png

??
si aspiettano che il tricheco rialzi i tassi ???