gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
non potevo non postare il commento della preferita del Fleu che ritiene più possibile per i mercati azionari USA un movimento a W rispetto ad un movimento a V per cui si attende un retest dei minimi....
One on One with Mary Ann Bartels, Chief U.S. Market Analyst at Merrill Lynch
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
SUSIE GHARIB: Despite today's rally, our guest tonight warns investors that September will be a volatile month and that the stock market could go down another 5 to 10 percent from where it's now trading. Joining us to explain, Mary Ann Bartels, chief U.S. market analyst at Merrill Lynch. Hi, Mary Ann. Nice to see you.
MARY ANN BARTELS, CHIEF US MARKET STRATEGIST, MERRILL LYNCH: Hi, Susie, same here.
GHARIB: The markets have already had a pretty serious correction this summer. Tell us why you think that there's more of a correction ahead.
BARTELS: Well, in our report, we say the V bottoms are rare, Ws are more of the norm meaning that you normally get a retest of a correction. So I'm looking for another retest of the low that we had.
GHARIB: All right. And tell us why.
BARTELS: Well, what we're seeing in our technical indicators is with the rally that we had off the low, we're starting to move into overbought territory. And we're starting to come into what we call resistance. And having that combination is starting to give us a sense that we're running out of time on this rally. So I think there's a high probability with the seasonal patterns of September -- and what I mean by that is September is what we call the rogue month of the year. It's actually the worst performing month of the year. On average over the past 25 years, the market has corrected around 1 percent. So I think we're setting up for a little bit of a continuation of the rally. Test some of these highs and then go back down and test the lows. That would indicate we could still have another 5 or 10 percent correction ahead.
GHARIB: So what's your timetable once those lows have been tested and it rebounds back up, what's the timetable on that?
BARTELS: Well, I think September is going to be the roughest month. We normally make very important lows in the month of October. Although the headlines tend to be very risky or sound very risky in October, we normally get excellent buying opportunities in the month of October. So I'm really waiting to get through this month of September. I think we're going to have more volatility and then look for an important low in October to set us up for a really nice rally going into year end.
GHARIB: All right, so a rally. You are a long-term bull. Tell us what sectors will be the leaders in that bull market.
BARTELS: We're still strong believers that this is a commodity led bull market. That positively impacts the energy sector, the materials or what's also known as basic resources and the industrial stocks.
GHARIB: And what areas do you think will be weak during this bull market?
BARTELS: Well, consumer staple stocks and health care have underperformed and I still think they'll be underperformers. But during this market volatility, if investors are looking to invest in the markets and looking for lower volatility opportunities, those would be the sectors that we would go into right now. But I think for the long term, I think you're going to get better performance from the sectors, the energy, the industrial and materials.
GHARIB: And what about international stocks? They have been outperforming U.S. stocks, at least over the last couple of months. What's your outlook in that area?
BARTELS: We've been long-term believers that non-U.S. markets will outperform the U.S. They have for several years. We think there's another at least two years of ability for overseas markets to outperform the U.S. So we do think that there's good opportunities overseas.
GHARIB: So Mary Ann, what's your advice to investors? If it's a good time, if you have money on the side, is this a good time to put new money into the markets?
BARTELS: Well, obviously I'm looking for a better entry point in October, but it's always very difficult to time the markets. I think investors that have a much longer term view, I think we're set up for a major bull market where we can continue to reach new highs into 2009.
GHARIB: All right. That's a good place to leave it. Thank you so much, Mary Ann.
BARTELS: Thank you, Susie.
GHARIB: My guest tonight, Mary Ann Bartels, chief U.S. market analyst at Merrill Lynch.
One on One with Mary Ann Bartels, Chief U.S. Market Analyst at Merrill Lynch
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
SUSIE GHARIB: Despite today's rally, our guest tonight warns investors that September will be a volatile month and that the stock market could go down another 5 to 10 percent from where it's now trading. Joining us to explain, Mary Ann Bartels, chief U.S. market analyst at Merrill Lynch. Hi, Mary Ann. Nice to see you.
MARY ANN BARTELS, CHIEF US MARKET STRATEGIST, MERRILL LYNCH: Hi, Susie, same here.
GHARIB: The markets have already had a pretty serious correction this summer. Tell us why you think that there's more of a correction ahead.
BARTELS: Well, in our report, we say the V bottoms are rare, Ws are more of the norm meaning that you normally get a retest of a correction. So I'm looking for another retest of the low that we had.
GHARIB: All right. And tell us why.
BARTELS: Well, what we're seeing in our technical indicators is with the rally that we had off the low, we're starting to move into overbought territory. And we're starting to come into what we call resistance. And having that combination is starting to give us a sense that we're running out of time on this rally. So I think there's a high probability with the seasonal patterns of September -- and what I mean by that is September is what we call the rogue month of the year. It's actually the worst performing month of the year. On average over the past 25 years, the market has corrected around 1 percent. So I think we're setting up for a little bit of a continuation of the rally. Test some of these highs and then go back down and test the lows. That would indicate we could still have another 5 or 10 percent correction ahead.
GHARIB: So what's your timetable once those lows have been tested and it rebounds back up, what's the timetable on that?
BARTELS: Well, I think September is going to be the roughest month. We normally make very important lows in the month of October. Although the headlines tend to be very risky or sound very risky in October, we normally get excellent buying opportunities in the month of October. So I'm really waiting to get through this month of September. I think we're going to have more volatility and then look for an important low in October to set us up for a really nice rally going into year end.
GHARIB: All right, so a rally. You are a long-term bull. Tell us what sectors will be the leaders in that bull market.
BARTELS: We're still strong believers that this is a commodity led bull market. That positively impacts the energy sector, the materials or what's also known as basic resources and the industrial stocks.
GHARIB: And what areas do you think will be weak during this bull market?
BARTELS: Well, consumer staple stocks and health care have underperformed and I still think they'll be underperformers. But during this market volatility, if investors are looking to invest in the markets and looking for lower volatility opportunities, those would be the sectors that we would go into right now. But I think for the long term, I think you're going to get better performance from the sectors, the energy, the industrial and materials.
GHARIB: And what about international stocks? They have been outperforming U.S. stocks, at least over the last couple of months. What's your outlook in that area?
BARTELS: We've been long-term believers that non-U.S. markets will outperform the U.S. They have for several years. We think there's another at least two years of ability for overseas markets to outperform the U.S. So we do think that there's good opportunities overseas.
GHARIB: So Mary Ann, what's your advice to investors? If it's a good time, if you have money on the side, is this a good time to put new money into the markets?
BARTELS: Well, obviously I'm looking for a better entry point in October, but it's always very difficult to time the markets. I think investors that have a much longer term view, I think we're set up for a major bull market where we can continue to reach new highs into 2009.
GHARIB: All right. That's a good place to leave it. Thank you so much, Mary Ann.
BARTELS: Thank you, Susie.
GHARIB: My guest tonight, Mary Ann Bartels, chief U.S. market analyst at Merrill Lynch.
