quicksilver
Forumer storico
dan24 ha scritto:
sono pigro
e poi stò usando fineco per gli ordini e il dax/stoxx va attivato
inoltre ultimamente mi trovavo molto in sintonia col nostro
BUND, TBOND. Arriva l'inverno.......(VM99 anos)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
sono pigro
e poi stò usando fineco per gli ordini e il dax/stoxx va attivato
inoltre ultimamente mi trovavo molto in sintonia col nostro
quicksilver
Forumer storico
dan24 ha scritto:per l'informativa dax stox 12 euri..dai e basta un click
si ma io devo imparare a conoscerlo un futures, tutti i futures hanno una loro anima e si comportano in modo diverso
mi trovavo anche bene con il mininasdaq e il minirussell ma per ora li ho mollati primo per la volatilità e il nervosismo che avevano raggiunto e poi perchè stare a fare trading fino alle 22 non è il massimo per la vita sociale
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
dan24 ha scritto:
A gennaio parlavo delle similitudini tra il movimento attuale e quello fatto nel 1998 per tanti motivi, il tipo di crisi, la reazione dell'intermarket sebbene in condisioni macro nettamente differenti ed anche il comportamento degli indici fino ad ora.
Anche altri hanno notato il potenziale di similitudine e ne hanno fatto degli studi:
The 10-day moving average of the equity put/call ratio hit a 10-year high of 0.97 on Monday. We suspect that this was actually an ALL-TIME high, but we don't know for sure because our put/call data doesn't go back further than 1997. Also, the single-day put/call reading achieved on Monday was one of the highest ever.
Monday's extraordinary put/call readings were obviously a response to the Bear Stearns collapse and the resulting "who's next?" fear. Interestingly, though, the Dow Industrials Index did not trade below its January low and actually ended the day with a small gain. The S&P500 Index did trade below January's intra-day low on Monday, but it didn't close below this level. Up until now the January lows have therefore held, meaning that the amount of fear in the market is way out of proportion to the price action.
The stock market reversed upward on Tuesday in similar fashion to the way it reversed upward on Tuesday of last week. Last week's reversal didn't stick, but the latest reversal looks a bit more convincing because it was accompanied by downward reversals in gold and gold stocks. There were also minor upward reversals in the US$ and the T-Bond yield.
It is too early to state with any confidence that Tuesday's reversals will have staying power, but the sentiment backdrop combined with the price action across all the markets has prompted us to upgrade our short-term US stock market outlook to "bullish". There's a significant risk that there will be one more test of the January low prior to the start of a multi-month counter-trend rebound (a rebound within a bear market), but the sentiment extremes registered over the past week indicate that a decisive break below the January lows probably won't happen anytime soon.
Note that the above-mentioned short-term bullish view will be proven wrong if the S&P500 Index CLOSES below Monday's intra-day low (1256)."
During Wednesday's trading session the US stock indices gave back a bit more than half of Tuesday's gains, but at the same time more evidence emerged that a trend change is 'in the works'. This evidence came in the form of substantial weakness in gold and minor strength in the US$.
To illustrate how a number of factors could be coming together to signal an upward reversal in the US stock market we'll take a look at what happened during, and immediately after, the 1998 financial crisis. The 'big picture' today could hardly be more different than it was in 1998, in that the long-term trends for gold, commodities, general equities and the US$ are the opposite today of what they were back then (gold and commodities were mired in long-term bear markets back then while the broad stock market was in a long-term bull market). However, the performances of the various markets during the 1998 financial crisis were remarkably similar to their performances over the past 9 months, so we think it is reasonable to expect that IF the pressures are about to temporarily abate -- the crisis will probably continue for another 1-2 years, but a multi-month respite could be on the cards -- then we are about to get similar market action to that which occurred after the pressures abated in 1998.
Continuing along this line of thinking, the first of the following sets of charts compares the performances of the S&P500 Index, the Dollar Index, the T-Bond price and the AMEX Gold BUGS Index (HUI) from mid-1998 through to the end of 1998. Note, with reference to this set of charts, that the 1998 crisis ended with an intra-day spike to a new multi-month low by the S&P500. The stock market then reversed upward, as did the US$, while bonds and gold stocks reversed lower.
The second of the following sets of charts shows the same comparison for the most recent 6-month period. Note that all four markets have, at least initially, reversed direction in similar fashion to the way they reversed direction during October of 1998
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