Bund, TBond e i Dannati del carry trade. (VM 91)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
leo-kondor ha scritto:
il globex sarà aperto metà giornata, per gli orari precisi andare a vedere sul sito del cme
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
dan24 ha scritto:
sul calendario dell'eurex c'è segnato no trading per il 28-05 , ma rimane aperto solo l'IDEM
dan24
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:sul calendario dell'eurex c'è segnato no trading per il 28-05 , ma rimane aperto solo l'IDEM
aaa ecco mi pareva fosse chiuso...allora lunedì tutti sul forex che nun si muoverà naaa segaa...o farà movimenti strani..visto che sarà illiquido...
ed intanto stox sta navigando sui max...nuovo range 4500-4422.....
buon weeek....e domani studiate...studiate gente....che la borsa più la studi e più ti ripaga...
1K settimanale l'obbiettivo minimo ....se no non vi amo più
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Visto che dan vuol studiare interessante articolo che parrla del report del sempre interessante strategist di CLSA:
The world has of late stopped talking about the yen carry trade,” notes CLSA’s Christopher Wood in his subscriber newsletter Greed and Fear. “But the most recent data on capital outflows from Japan is a reminder that the key component of the yen carry trade is probably the Japanese themselves.” [See data below*]
The interesting point about the latest monthly data is that it provides clear evidence that the outflow into higher yielding assets offshore has begun to escalate, says Mr Wood.
“There is a growing risk that the regular monthly Japanese outflow offshore turns into a tsunami based on the well-known Japanese cultural tendency to extrapolate trends to the extreme.”
Given the latest warnings from international multilateral institutions to Japan — the OECD and IMF, as reported by the FT on Thursday – to “refrain from raising interest rates until inflation is firmly positive” (that is, to keep rates at their current near-rock bottom level of 0.5 per cent), Mr Wood’s predictions will undoubtedly be born out.
However, if the yen falls towards the 125-130 range against the dollar on increased capital outflows, notes Mr Wood, “then Greed & Fear would still expect international pressure to mount regarding the undervaluation of the Japanese currency”. Such international pressure “would provide the Bank of Japan with the excuse to get on with normalising yen-interest rates,” he adds.
In (what some of us at FT Alphaville think unlikely) the event that Japanese rates rise significantly, “the positive investment recommendation from such an outcome would be to buy Japanese bank stocks and sell Japanese property stocks.”
“A sudden acceleration in market expectations of Japanese rate hikes would again trigger concerns about the unwinding of the yen carry trade. This would likely create some short-term weakness in risky assets including Asian and emerging market equities,” says Mr Wood.
But the downside would not be traumatic so long as credit spreads do not rise dramatically. “Greed & Fear continues to believe it is ultra tight credit spreads, rather than the yen carry trade, which is the key driver of extreme risk tolerance.”
[* The monthly capital and financial account outflow rose to a nine-year high of ¥3.75 trillion in March, up from ¥1.93tn in February, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Similarly, Japan’s Investment Trusts Association reported last week that Japanese investment trust holdings of foreign assets surged by ¥1.77tn ($15bn) in April to ¥32.3tn and are now up ¥4.57tn year-to-date. This is the biggest monthly increase since the monthly data began in 1989.]
The world has of late stopped talking about the yen carry trade,” notes CLSA’s Christopher Wood in his subscriber newsletter Greed and Fear. “But the most recent data on capital outflows from Japan is a reminder that the key component of the yen carry trade is probably the Japanese themselves.” [See data below*]
The interesting point about the latest monthly data is that it provides clear evidence that the outflow into higher yielding assets offshore has begun to escalate, says Mr Wood.
“There is a growing risk that the regular monthly Japanese outflow offshore turns into a tsunami based on the well-known Japanese cultural tendency to extrapolate trends to the extreme.”
Given the latest warnings from international multilateral institutions to Japan — the OECD and IMF, as reported by the FT on Thursday – to “refrain from raising interest rates until inflation is firmly positive” (that is, to keep rates at their current near-rock bottom level of 0.5 per cent), Mr Wood’s predictions will undoubtedly be born out.
However, if the yen falls towards the 125-130 range against the dollar on increased capital outflows, notes Mr Wood, “then Greed & Fear would still expect international pressure to mount regarding the undervaluation of the Japanese currency”. Such international pressure “would provide the Bank of Japan with the excuse to get on with normalising yen-interest rates,” he adds.
In (what some of us at FT Alphaville think unlikely) the event that Japanese rates rise significantly, “the positive investment recommendation from such an outcome would be to buy Japanese bank stocks and sell Japanese property stocks.”
“A sudden acceleration in market expectations of Japanese rate hikes would again trigger concerns about the unwinding of the yen carry trade. This would likely create some short-term weakness in risky assets including Asian and emerging market equities,” says Mr Wood.
But the downside would not be traumatic so long as credit spreads do not rise dramatically. “Greed & Fear continues to believe it is ultra tight credit spreads, rather than the yen carry trade, which is the key driver of extreme risk tolerance.”
[* The monthly capital and financial account outflow rose to a nine-year high of ¥3.75 trillion in March, up from ¥1.93tn in February, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Similarly, Japan’s Investment Trusts Association reported last week that Japanese investment trust holdings of foreign assets surged by ¥1.77tn ($15bn) in April to ¥32.3tn and are now up ¥4.57tn year-to-date. This is the biggest monthly increase since the monthly data began in 1989.]
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
E questo è Fels di MS:
View of the day: Joachim Fels, Morgan Stanley
By Joachim Fels, Morgan Stanley
Published: May 24 2007 17:15 | Last updated: May 24 2007 17:15
The bubble in bonds may be deflating, warns Joachim Fels, chief global fixed income strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Mr Fels says the overwhelmingly negative news flow for bonds recently is only the beginning of a major bear market for the asset class.
“First, the global economy is on fire. The US industrial sector is rebounding, European growth has remained robust and China and many other emerging market economies are continuing to do well.
“I expect the second leg of the global upswing to be driven by a stronger capex spending response to rising capacity constraints,” he says. “Second, central banks are becoming more hawkish. The People’s Bank of China is tightening policy, the European Central Bank has further to go and the US Federal Reserve will likely keep rates in restrictive territory for longer.
“Third, global inflation fundamentals are deteriorating. Food and energy prices are rising, labour markets are tightening, and capacities are highly utilised.”
Mr Fels says all this argues for higher real rates and for markets to price in higher higher compensation for inflation. “The ongoing recycling of commodity producer and China surpluses into bonds may provide some offset, but the central banks of the surplus countries are more keen on putting money into risky assets. Hence, the bubble is likely to move from bonds into equities,” he says.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
View of the day: Joachim Fels, Morgan Stanley
By Joachim Fels, Morgan Stanley
Published: May 24 2007 17:15 | Last updated: May 24 2007 17:15
The bubble in bonds may be deflating, warns Joachim Fels, chief global fixed income strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Mr Fels says the overwhelmingly negative news flow for bonds recently is only the beginning of a major bear market for the asset class.
“First, the global economy is on fire. The US industrial sector is rebounding, European growth has remained robust and China and many other emerging market economies are continuing to do well.
“I expect the second leg of the global upswing to be driven by a stronger capex spending response to rising capacity constraints,” he says. “Second, central banks are becoming more hawkish. The People’s Bank of China is tightening policy, the European Central Bank has further to go and the US Federal Reserve will likely keep rates in restrictive territory for longer.
“Third, global inflation fundamentals are deteriorating. Food and energy prices are rising, labour markets are tightening, and capacities are highly utilised.”
Mr Fels says all this argues for higher real rates and for markets to price in higher higher compensation for inflation. “The ongoing recycling of commodity producer and China surpluses into bonds may provide some offset, but the central banks of the surplus countries are more keen on putting money into risky assets. Hence, the bubble is likely to move from bonds into equities,” he says.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
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