Bund, TBond e i Dannati del carry trade. (VM 91)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
dan24
Forumer storico
oggi 4374 mama daily...sullo stox dove sta picchiando da giorni...sotto campo libero fino a 4300/4287 in prima battuta ...rimane in range per il momento
la bce non penso avranno un tono duro....sui tassi...anche se le aspettative sono tutte verso un rialzo o due entro fine anno...dovrebbero leggermente allentare la presa nei discorsi....per non creare troppa turbolenza nei cross....se alzano il tono si ritrovano l'euro/usd a 1,38/1,40 e euro/yen a 170
rimango short di uno stox e basta da 4375..
la bce non penso avranno un tono duro....sui tassi...anche se le aspettative sono tutte verso un rialzo o due entro fine anno...dovrebbero leggermente allentare la presa nei discorsi....per non creare troppa turbolenza nei cross....se alzano il tono si ritrovano l'euro/usd a 1,38/1,40 e euro/yen a 170
rimango short di uno stox e basta da 4375..
f4f
翠鸟科
dan24 ha scritto:
non se lo possono permettere
la ripresa EU c'è ma è appena nata
le commodity già costano poco grazie al dollaro debole
la concorrenza Jap non è fortissima ma non va stimolata
l'inflazione è sotto controllo ( se danno retta ai dati che loro stessi pubblicano)
a questo punto i carry creano massa monetaria virtuale, senza il controllo di triquet
e la potenziale bolla dei carry + hegge.funz può essere destabilizzante
e il mercato equity, anche se perde un bel 2%, resta bello forte
boh, vediamo come va
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Bank of England Lifts Benchmark Rate to Six-Year High (Update2)
By Brian Swint
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to a six-year high as consumer spending, house-price growth and record employment drove inflation to the fastest in a decade.
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee increased the Bank Rate by a quarter-point to 5.5 percent, the highest since April 2001, the bank said today in London. All 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the decision. Eleven of 43 economists expect another move to 5.75 percent this year.
U.K. borrowing costs are now the highest among the Group of Seven nations. Governor Mervyn King, marking the government's decision to give the bank independence a decade ago, promised last week to return inflation to the 2 percent target from 3.1 percent in March. That rate was the highest since at least 1997 and the bank said today inflation risks remain ``tilted to the upside.''
``While there's no cause to panic, the bank still has issues to deal with, and they will be sorted out by tightening the monetary screws some more,'' said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities in London. ``We see rates moving to 5.75 percent in July, but we wouldn't rule out a hike next month.''
Today's increase is the fourth since the start of August. At 5.5 percent, Britain's key rate is higher than the 5.25 percent in the U.S. The European Central Bank will keep its benchmark rate at 3.75 percent at today's meeting in Dublin, all 45 economists in a Bloomberg survey said. Canada's main rate is 4.25 percent and Japan's is 0.5 percent.
`Upside' Risks
``The margin of spare capacity in firms appears limited and there are signs that businesses are more able to push through price increases,'' the bank said in a statement accompanying the announcement. ``Relative to the 2 percent target, the risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term consequently remain tilted to the upside.''
The rate moves so far have failed to cool the British property market or consumer spending. House-price inflation was 10.9 percent in the quarter through April, the second-highest rate in the past two years, HBOS Plc, the country's biggest mortgage lender, said today. Retail sales rose for a second month in March.
Speculation of higher U.K. borrowing costs helped drive the pound to $2.0133 on April 18, the most in a quarter-century. The pound was at $1.9881 at 12:23 p.m. in London compared with $1.9876 before the announcement.
Another Increase
Futures trading suggests investors expect another rate increase after today. The implied rate on the September interest- rate futures contract fell 1 basis point to 5.93 percent. The contract, which settles to the three-month London inter-bank offered rate for the pound, averaged about 15 basis points more than the central bank's benchmark for the past decade.
Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown handed the Bank of England the authority to set interest rates within a week of coming to power in 1997. Since then, the economy has expanded for 40 consecutive quarters and U.K. inflation has been lower than in any other 10-year period since World War II.
Blair also announced the date of his retirement today, with Brown the favorite to take over as prime minister. The ruling Labour Party's standing in the polls remains close to a 20-year low because of concern about the quality of public services and Blair's support for the Iraq war.
``This is the greatest period of political instability in a decade, and the Bank of England is hiking rates,'' said Michael Saunders, chief western European economist at Citigroup Inc. in London. ``It really shows the de-politicization of the bank.''
Services Growth
The U.K. economy expanded 0.7 percent in the first quarter from the fourth, the same pace as in the previous two quarters and more than economists had estimated. Gross domestic product grew 2.8 percent last year, the most since 2004, and the central bank forecasts expansion of about 3 percent this year.
Growth in 2006 was powered by services in a record year for mergers and acquisitions that has persisted into this year. Business services and finance account for about 28 percent of the economy, compared with manufacturing's 15 percent.
Factory production rose 0.6 percent in March from the previous month, more than economists forecast, the statistics office said today. A survey released May 1 by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing Supply showed that companies are charging customers more, feeding price pressures into the economy.
Unemployment fell to the lowest in more than a year in March and earnings growth accelerated to the fastest pace since 2004.
Letter to Brown
The March inflation rate, more than a percentage point above the bank's target, forced King to write to Brown on April 17 with the assurance that policy makers are ``determined'' to quell price increases. His letter to the Treasury was the first since the bank won independence in 1997.
There are some signs that higher interest rates are starting to cool households' appetite for borrowing. Personal insolvencies reached a record last quarter as Britons shouldered 1.3 trillion pounds ($2.6 trillion) of debt. Mortgage approvals fell to the lowest in 11 months in March.
Today's quarter-point increase raises the monthly payment on a 200,000-pound mortgage that tracks the Bank Rate by 30 pounds. Payments will now be about 120 pounds more a month than before the interest-rate increase in August, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
``We are concerned this increase will make life even tougher for consumers who are already heavily burdened with debt and higher living costs,'' said Kevin Hawkins, director general of the British Retail Consortium, which represents about 80 percent of U.K. retailers, in a statement. The decision ``may turn out to be unnecessary.''
The central bank forecast in February that inflation will slow in coming months as utilities and companies lower prices. Scottish Power Plc on April 30 announced price cuts for a second time this year to keep up with rivals Centrica Plc. King will give an update on the central bank's predictions next week.
``Growth will slow as we see indications of weakness in the housing market, consumer spending and retail sales,'' Nick Bate, an economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London who used to work at the U.K. Treasury, said before the decision. ``But another increase is warranted.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at [email protected] .
By Brian Swint
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to a six-year high as consumer spending, house-price growth and record employment drove inflation to the fastest in a decade.
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee increased the Bank Rate by a quarter-point to 5.5 percent, the highest since April 2001, the bank said today in London. All 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the decision. Eleven of 43 economists expect another move to 5.75 percent this year.
U.K. borrowing costs are now the highest among the Group of Seven nations. Governor Mervyn King, marking the government's decision to give the bank independence a decade ago, promised last week to return inflation to the 2 percent target from 3.1 percent in March. That rate was the highest since at least 1997 and the bank said today inflation risks remain ``tilted to the upside.''
``While there's no cause to panic, the bank still has issues to deal with, and they will be sorted out by tightening the monetary screws some more,'' said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities in London. ``We see rates moving to 5.75 percent in July, but we wouldn't rule out a hike next month.''
Today's increase is the fourth since the start of August. At 5.5 percent, Britain's key rate is higher than the 5.25 percent in the U.S. The European Central Bank will keep its benchmark rate at 3.75 percent at today's meeting in Dublin, all 45 economists in a Bloomberg survey said. Canada's main rate is 4.25 percent and Japan's is 0.5 percent.
`Upside' Risks
``The margin of spare capacity in firms appears limited and there are signs that businesses are more able to push through price increases,'' the bank said in a statement accompanying the announcement. ``Relative to the 2 percent target, the risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term consequently remain tilted to the upside.''
The rate moves so far have failed to cool the British property market or consumer spending. House-price inflation was 10.9 percent in the quarter through April, the second-highest rate in the past two years, HBOS Plc, the country's biggest mortgage lender, said today. Retail sales rose for a second month in March.
Speculation of higher U.K. borrowing costs helped drive the pound to $2.0133 on April 18, the most in a quarter-century. The pound was at $1.9881 at 12:23 p.m. in London compared with $1.9876 before the announcement.
Another Increase
Futures trading suggests investors expect another rate increase after today. The implied rate on the September interest- rate futures contract fell 1 basis point to 5.93 percent. The contract, which settles to the three-month London inter-bank offered rate for the pound, averaged about 15 basis points more than the central bank's benchmark for the past decade.
Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown handed the Bank of England the authority to set interest rates within a week of coming to power in 1997. Since then, the economy has expanded for 40 consecutive quarters and U.K. inflation has been lower than in any other 10-year period since World War II.
Blair also announced the date of his retirement today, with Brown the favorite to take over as prime minister. The ruling Labour Party's standing in the polls remains close to a 20-year low because of concern about the quality of public services and Blair's support for the Iraq war.
``This is the greatest period of political instability in a decade, and the Bank of England is hiking rates,'' said Michael Saunders, chief western European economist at Citigroup Inc. in London. ``It really shows the de-politicization of the bank.''
Services Growth
The U.K. economy expanded 0.7 percent in the first quarter from the fourth, the same pace as in the previous two quarters and more than economists had estimated. Gross domestic product grew 2.8 percent last year, the most since 2004, and the central bank forecasts expansion of about 3 percent this year.
Growth in 2006 was powered by services in a record year for mergers and acquisitions that has persisted into this year. Business services and finance account for about 28 percent of the economy, compared with manufacturing's 15 percent.
Factory production rose 0.6 percent in March from the previous month, more than economists forecast, the statistics office said today. A survey released May 1 by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing Supply showed that companies are charging customers more, feeding price pressures into the economy.
Unemployment fell to the lowest in more than a year in March and earnings growth accelerated to the fastest pace since 2004.
Letter to Brown
The March inflation rate, more than a percentage point above the bank's target, forced King to write to Brown on April 17 with the assurance that policy makers are ``determined'' to quell price increases. His letter to the Treasury was the first since the bank won independence in 1997.
There are some signs that higher interest rates are starting to cool households' appetite for borrowing. Personal insolvencies reached a record last quarter as Britons shouldered 1.3 trillion pounds ($2.6 trillion) of debt. Mortgage approvals fell to the lowest in 11 months in March.
Today's quarter-point increase raises the monthly payment on a 200,000-pound mortgage that tracks the Bank Rate by 30 pounds. Payments will now be about 120 pounds more a month than before the interest-rate increase in August, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
``We are concerned this increase will make life even tougher for consumers who are already heavily burdened with debt and higher living costs,'' said Kevin Hawkins, director general of the British Retail Consortium, which represents about 80 percent of U.K. retailers, in a statement. The decision ``may turn out to be unnecessary.''
The central bank forecast in February that inflation will slow in coming months as utilities and companies lower prices. Scottish Power Plc on April 30 announced price cuts for a second time this year to keep up with rivals Centrica Plc. King will give an update on the central bank's predictions next week.
``Growth will slow as we see indications of weakness in the housing market, consumer spending and retail sales,'' Nick Bate, an economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London who used to work at the U.K. Treasury, said before the decision. ``But another increase is warranted.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at [email protected] .
![1178799252wolk[1].jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.investireoggi.it%2FphpBB2%2Fimmagini%2F1178799252wolk%5B1%5D.jpg&hash=266d7bdf35b849870ce3f4475e227495)
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