Bund, TBond e i Dannati del carry trade. (VM 91)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Ciao a Tutti,
premesso che non sto facendo nulla sui mercati, mi sto sempre più convincendo che per provare a fare due soldini si debba essere contrarian rispetto a bull trend con posizioni di tipo scalare - inoltre sulle valute vedo una certa tensione. Segnalo la lettura dell'Economist di questa settimana, molti articoli interessanti, sia di politica sia di finanza. Era anche ben fatto articolo di ieri a pag. 38 di Affari e Finanza (supplemento del lunedi di Repubblica). A dopo
premesso che non sto facendo nulla sui mercati, mi sto sempre più convincendo che per provare a fare due soldini si debba essere contrarian rispetto a bull trend con posizioni di tipo scalare - inoltre sulle valute vedo una certa tensione. Segnalo la lettura dell'Economist di questa settimana, molti articoli interessanti, sia di politica sia di finanza. Era anche ben fatto articolo di ieri a pag. 38 di Affari e Finanza (supplemento del lunedi di Repubblica). A dopo
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Capital spending in calo e ordini in calo...
o la concorrenza asiatica sta ponendo pressioni serie alle merci giapponesi oppure il rallentamento sta arrivando...
Al momento è più probabile la prima possibilità
Japan's Machine Orders Fall 4.5%, Undermining Growth (Update5)
By Jason Clenfield
May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's machinery orders fell unexpectedly in March and companies said the slump will deepen, undermining growth in the world's second-largest economy.
Orders dropped 4.5 percent from a month earlier after declining a revised 4.9 percent in February, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.5 percent increase.
The report also shows companies expect orders to plunge 11.8 percent this quarter, weakening the central bank's case for raising interest rates, the lowest among major economies. NEC Electronics Corp., Japan's third-largest chipmaker, said yesterday it plans to reduce capital investment by 30 percent.
``Today's data cast dark clouds over the state of capital expenditure,'' said Masaki Fukui, a senior economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. ``On every count, machine orders were bad.''
The yen traded at 120.30 per dollar at 3:33 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 120.38 before the report was published. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.9 percent, led by Fanuc Ltd., the world's largest maker of industrial robots.
Japan's economic growth probably slowed in the first quarter as investment cooled in anticipation of waning demand in the U.S. The world's second-largest economy expanded an annualized 2.7 percent in the three months ended March 31, half the rate of the previous three months, according to the median estimate of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Bank of Japan
The government releases its gross domestic product report on May 17, the same day the Bank of Japan decides interest-rate policy. Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board colleagues will hold the key rate at 0.5 percent at the end of the two-day meeting, according to all 49 economists asked by Bloomberg.
Companies expect orders to decline the most in 20 years in the three months ending June 30, after they dropped 0.7 percent in the first quarter, according to today's report. The numbers exclude orders made by the government and those for shipping and utilities.
Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said the outlook for machinery orders is ``somewhat worrisome.'' The Cabinet Office downgraded its assessment of the orders for the first time in six months, and described them as ``weak'' for the first time since November 2004.
Still, Cabinet Office spokesman Itsushi Tachi said companies tend to be conservative in their forecasts at the start of the fiscal year, and actual orders are usually stronger. In 2006, companies forecast a 2.5 percent drop in orders for the three months ending June before boosting them 8.9 percent.
Conservative Spending
Tokyo Electron Ltd., the world's second-largest supplier of chip-making equipment, said last week sales of machines used to make flat-panel displays will probably fall by a third this year because of a glut of the devices. Rival Nikon Corp. predicted shipments of machines that burn circuits on glass substrate will fall by half.
``Companies are becoming more uncertain about the outlook and that's prompting them to be more conservative in their spending plans,'' said Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, who predicted orders would drop. ``Should a slowdown in capital spending intensify that could prompt the bank to delay raising rates.''
Orders for manufacturing equipment fell 7.5 percent from a month earlier, the Cabinet Office said, while those made by non- manufacturers declined 7 percent.
From a year earlier, orders declined 5.8 percent, the government said. Economists expected a 2.1 percent gain.
Tankan Survey
The drop in orders came even as companies plan to step up investment in the year ending March 31. The Bank of Japan's Tankan business survey last month showed the nation's largest manufacturers plan to increase spending 2.5 percent this fiscal year. Service companies said they'll boost outlays 3.1 percent.
``I don't see any reason to worry about a slump in capital investment because interest rates are so low,'' Tomoko Fujii, a senior economist and strategist at Bank of America N.A. in Tokyo, said before today's report. ``But because the pace of investment is already so high, it may moderate.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at [email protected] .
Last Updated: May 15, 2007 02:36 EDT
o la concorrenza asiatica sta ponendo pressioni serie alle merci giapponesi oppure il rallentamento sta arrivando...
Al momento è più probabile la prima possibilità
Japan's Machine Orders Fall 4.5%, Undermining Growth (Update5)
By Jason Clenfield
May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's machinery orders fell unexpectedly in March and companies said the slump will deepen, undermining growth in the world's second-largest economy.
Orders dropped 4.5 percent from a month earlier after declining a revised 4.9 percent in February, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.5 percent increase.
The report also shows companies expect orders to plunge 11.8 percent this quarter, weakening the central bank's case for raising interest rates, the lowest among major economies. NEC Electronics Corp., Japan's third-largest chipmaker, said yesterday it plans to reduce capital investment by 30 percent.
``Today's data cast dark clouds over the state of capital expenditure,'' said Masaki Fukui, a senior economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. ``On every count, machine orders were bad.''
The yen traded at 120.30 per dollar at 3:33 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 120.38 before the report was published. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.9 percent, led by Fanuc Ltd., the world's largest maker of industrial robots.
Japan's economic growth probably slowed in the first quarter as investment cooled in anticipation of waning demand in the U.S. The world's second-largest economy expanded an annualized 2.7 percent in the three months ended March 31, half the rate of the previous three months, according to the median estimate of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Bank of Japan
The government releases its gross domestic product report on May 17, the same day the Bank of Japan decides interest-rate policy. Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board colleagues will hold the key rate at 0.5 percent at the end of the two-day meeting, according to all 49 economists asked by Bloomberg.
Companies expect orders to decline the most in 20 years in the three months ending June 30, after they dropped 0.7 percent in the first quarter, according to today's report. The numbers exclude orders made by the government and those for shipping and utilities.
Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said the outlook for machinery orders is ``somewhat worrisome.'' The Cabinet Office downgraded its assessment of the orders for the first time in six months, and described them as ``weak'' for the first time since November 2004.
Still, Cabinet Office spokesman Itsushi Tachi said companies tend to be conservative in their forecasts at the start of the fiscal year, and actual orders are usually stronger. In 2006, companies forecast a 2.5 percent drop in orders for the three months ending June before boosting them 8.9 percent.
Conservative Spending
Tokyo Electron Ltd., the world's second-largest supplier of chip-making equipment, said last week sales of machines used to make flat-panel displays will probably fall by a third this year because of a glut of the devices. Rival Nikon Corp. predicted shipments of machines that burn circuits on glass substrate will fall by half.
``Companies are becoming more uncertain about the outlook and that's prompting them to be more conservative in their spending plans,'' said Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, who predicted orders would drop. ``Should a slowdown in capital spending intensify that could prompt the bank to delay raising rates.''
Orders for manufacturing equipment fell 7.5 percent from a month earlier, the Cabinet Office said, while those made by non- manufacturers declined 7 percent.
From a year earlier, orders declined 5.8 percent, the government said. Economists expected a 2.1 percent gain.
Tankan Survey
The drop in orders came even as companies plan to step up investment in the year ending March 31. The Bank of Japan's Tankan business survey last month showed the nation's largest manufacturers plan to increase spending 2.5 percent this fiscal year. Service companies said they'll boost outlays 3.1 percent.
``I don't see any reason to worry about a slump in capital investment because interest rates are so low,'' Tomoko Fujii, a senior economist and strategist at Bank of America N.A. in Tokyo, said before today's report. ``But because the pace of investment is already so high, it may moderate.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at [email protected] .
Last Updated: May 15, 2007 02:36 EDT
f4f
翠鸟科
gastronomo ha scritto:
gooood morning bbbanda
dissento, mio caro Gastro
per fare due soldini foooooorse la chiave è nel gioco indicato da Fleu e da me
indice coperto dinamicamnte con opzioni .... call put ATM OTM è un discorso tattico
certo resta la quaestio del 'due soldini' cosa voglia dire in %
ma soprattutto del rischio
a mio parere è assai più redditizio, ma troppo più rischioso, il metodo contrarian+scalare
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Tenuto conto delle modifiche sugli investimenti avvenute l'altro giorno in Cina un indice da monitorare per eventuali segnali di inversione globale è questo in quanto tiene conto sia della forza dell'economia Cinese ma riesce ad esprimere allo stesso tempo la forza della liquidità globale (al contrario del listino domestico Cinese)
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^HSCE&t=1d
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^HSCE&t=1d
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