Bund, Tbond e la grossa coda gialla......(V.M. 77 anni)

[Leo's]

testina guarda gli orari in cui ho postato ed il grafico intraday...a quell'ora è sceso insieme all'Usd/jpy ...uno a 154,84....e l'altro a 118,10....ed anche sotto ..metti in dubbio le mie operazioni adesso?..per 200 euro di gain dichiarato....? poi una parte li avevo fatto sul primo spike e ribasso sui dati...

ma che dubbio! mi inkakkiavo con me stesso... è sceso evidentemente proprio quando ho chiuso tutto... e ho riaperto stamattina...
dai che sono contento che sei riuscito a uscire...
cmq, da lunedì se abbiamo la costanza di tenere secondo me godiamo (basta che poi non chiudiamo subito e ci perdiamo tutta la discesa...)
ciao ciao

 

[dan24]

ma che dubbio! mi inkakkiavo con me stesso... è sceso evidentemente proprio quando ho chiuso tutto... e ho riaperto stamattina...
dai che sono contento che sei riuscito a uscire...
cmq, da lunedì se abbiamo la costanza di tenere secondo me godiamo (basta che poi non chiudiamo subito e ci perdiamo tutta la discesa...)
ciao ciao

è sceso si....che te lo dico a fare....io da lunedì continuo a fare intraday....

 

[gipa69]

Japanese Addiction: Currency Bets Small Investors, Acting 'Like an Enormous Hedge Fund,' Help Push the Yen Around

By YUKA HAYASHI

TOKYO -- There is an aggressive new type of trader pushing around the yen on global currency markets: Japanese individuals.

Traditionally, currency speculation was the domain of big-money professional investors or global corporations engaged in export and import businesses, as well as hedge funds, which are investment pools catering to the rich. Among them the strategy of borrowing in yen to invest in another country is widely practiced and has become known as the carry trade. It can be a lucrative way to cash in on Japan's super-low interest rates.

Now people such as Naomi Kashiwazaki, 29 years old, have joined the fray. She trades currencies from her small apartment in Tokyo's suburbs. She started about a year and a half ago to supplement the income from her online store, which sells designer athletic shoes that are hard to find in Japan. In recent months, she has earned an average profit of $8,600 a month.

"I must say, I am addicted to this now," she says.

Tens of thousands of other investors like her are doing the same thing. With Japanese interest rates hovering at a low 0.5%, they borrow big piles of yen cheaply and then invest it in currencies elsewhere, looking for higher returns. Ms. Kashiwazaki makes trades totaling $200,000 or so a day among several currencies, ranging from the U.S. dollar to the Swiss franc.

Borrowing money to trade currencies has become so popular in Japan that individual traders -- sitting at their computers in homes across the country -- now trade tens of billions of dollars a day, according to some estimates.

The activity is driven by Japanese investors desperate to earn better returns on their savings amid historically low interest rates.

Tokyo-based Money Partners Co., an online-trading company, has gathered more than 22,000 customer accounts since it was founded in 2005.

"Our typical investors are in their 30s or 40s," says Money Partners President Taizen Okuyama. "They come home from work and sit in front of their computers for a couple of hours to trade before going to bed."

Nao Matsui, a day trader in Yokohama, has been trading currencies online since 2005, after he was forced to close his Internet-advertising business. Online trading enabled him recently to nearly pay off a $2.5 million debt that he was left with from the business. His most recent strategy: betting against the British pound.

In order to maximize his return, the 40-year-old pledged some two million yen in collateral recently to take positions valued at £1 million ($1.9 million). Over a three-day period he accumulated a profit of some nine million yen. Usually, it takes him a month to earn that amount.

"I love a violent market like this," Mr. Matsui says. "My hope is to accumulate enough money so I can stop trading by the end of the year."

 

[Leo's]

Japanese Addiction: Currency Bets Small Investors, Acting 'Like an Enormous Hedge Fund,' Help Push the Yen Around

By YUKA HAYASHI

TOKYO -- There is an aggressive new type of trader pushing around the yen on global currency markets: Japanese individuals.

Traditionally, currency speculation was the domain of big-money professional investors or global corporations engaged in export and import businesses, as well as hedge funds, which are investment pools catering to the rich. Among them the strategy of borrowing in yen to invest in another country is widely practiced and has become known as the carry trade. It can be a lucrative way to cash in on Japan's super-low interest rates.

Now people such as Naomi Kashiwazaki, 29 years old, have joined the fray. She trades currencies from her small apartment in Tokyo's suburbs. She started about a year and a half ago to supplement the income from her online store, which sells designer athletic shoes that are hard to find in Japan. In recent months, she has earned an average profit of $8,600 a month.

"I must say, I am addicted to this now," she says.

Tens of thousands of other investors like her are doing the same thing. With Japanese interest rates hovering at a low 0.5%, they borrow big piles of yen cheaply and then invest it in currencies elsewhere, looking for higher returns. Ms. Kashiwazaki makes trades totaling $200,000 or so a day among several currencies, ranging from the U.S. dollar to the Swiss franc.

Borrowing money to trade currencies has become so popular in Japan that individual traders -- sitting at their computers in homes across the country -- now trade tens of billions of dollars a day, according to some estimates.

The activity is driven by Japanese investors desperate to earn better returns on their savings amid historically low interest rates.

Tokyo-based Money Partners Co., an online-trading company, has gathered more than 22,000 customer accounts since it was founded in 2005.

"Our typical investors are in their 30s or 40s," says Money Partners President Taizen Okuyama. "They come home from work and sit in front of their computers for a couple of hours to trade before going to bed."

Nao Matsui, a day trader in Yokohama, has been trading currencies online since 2005, after he was forced to close his Internet-advertising business. Online trading enabled him recently to nearly pay off a $2.5 million debt that he was left with from the business. His most recent strategy: betting against the British pound.

In order to maximize his return, the 40-year-old pledged some two million yen in collateral recently to take positions valued at £1 million ($1.9 million). Over a three-day period he accumulated a profit of some nine million yen. Usually, it takes him a month to earn that amount.

"I love a violent market like this," Mr. Matsui says. "My hope is to accumulate enough money so I can stop trading by the end of the year."

non è quello che facciamo tutti noi in fondo? ... se ne sno accorti solo ora? e solo in giappone?

 

[f4f]

goooood saturday bbbbbanda !

 

[f4f]

masgui guarda questo grafo
... l'ultimo della paggina, intiendo




http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/is-the-next-monday-a-new-black-monday-vt26536-45.html

 

[Leo's]

masgui guarda questo grafo
... l'ultimo della paggina, intiendo




http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/is-the-next-monday-a-new-black-monday-vt26536-45.html

Può guardarlo solo masgui o possiamo anche noi?

 

[gipa69]

non è quello che facciamo tutti noi in fondo? ... se ne sno accorti solo ora? e solo in giappone?

Mi sembra che tu abbia una posizione esattamente contraria a questa!

 

[gipa69]

BOJ, Fukui Must Go Radical to End Debt Crunch: William Pesek

By William Pesek

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- It's hard not to wonder if the world is missing the plot on Japan.

The eyes of investors from New York to Singapore are on the Bank of Japan to see when it will raise interest rates again. As markets wait anxiously, a lively debate is playing out between those who say the BOJ is being too timid about tightening and those who suspect it's being too aggressive.

And yet the biggest obstacle for Japan isn't borrowing costs -- it's debt.

With Japan growing again and deflationary pressures waning, it's easy to forget how indebted the No. 2 economy is. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Japan's debt to gross domestic product ratio is 170 percent -- by far the largest among developed nations.

That predicament explains why Japan carries a lower local- currency rating than Botswana and one on a par with Kuwait, Latvia and Mauritius. Things look even worse when you consider Japan's rapidly aging population. If Japan doesn't get serious about reducing debt, it may never be able to.

What to do? Well, something Japan hasn't yet considered. One suggestion: Lock short-term rates at the current 0.5 percent for five years or longer and tighten fiscal policy.

Yes, this would be a highly unorthodox approach, and the mere thought might have some economists spitting out their morning coffee. Yet a couple of things are worth considering.

Unorthodox Japan

First, when was the last time Japan faced an orthodox economic scenario? 1970? 1980? Certainly not since the early 1990s, when Japan began loosening fiscal and monetary policies as never before to avoid modernizing its economy. So let's put conventional financial thinking aside for a moment; it hasn't applied to Japan for decades.

Second, the BOJ is hardly independent, so let's stop pretending it is. Every time the BOJ meets, we engage in this charade that Governor Toshihiko Fukui can do what he wants. If Fukui could, Japan's overnight lending rate might be 2 percent or higher, not close to zero.

Companies and consumers weren't exactly borrowing when short rates were even lower than they are today. It's a sign that while Japan's monetary system is a problem, so is a general lack of confidence in the outlook. That skepticism may have more to do with debt than economists like to admit.

It's the Debt, Stupid

It's hard to have great trust in the future when your grandchildren's grandchildren will be paying off debts assumed during the so-called Lost Decade of the 1990s. Of course, given Japan's record low birthrate, the number of workers servicing today's debts will get smaller, while the ranks of the elderly grow ever larger.

``It's an illusion to say Japan can grow out of its fiscal and aging problems,'' Willi Leibfritz, an OECD economist, said at a EuroMoney conference in London on March 1. ``We would argue caution with monetary tightening and speed up the fiscal consolidation.''

Admittedly, this wasn't exactly an endorsement of my idea to put the BOJ on extended holiday and focus wholeheartedly on fiscal policy. Yet Leibfritz's point is an important one. The end result (reducing Japan's debt) really would justify the means (monetary policy locked in neutral).

Not everyone agrees fiscal policy should be tightened. ``It's not clear Japan can withstand much tightening on the fiscal side,'' said Robert Minikin, market strategist at Lombard Street Research in London.

Catch-22

Then again, isn't that the point? Until Japan stops relying on excessive borrowing, politicians won't want to risk scuttling growth. It's a classic Catch-22. Japan can't right itself in the long run without strong political will; there won't be political will without faster growth.

All the more reason to do something drastic. The events of the last 10 days underscore the precariousness of Japan's recovery. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell more than 5 percent last week after Chinese shares plummeted and as a surging yen raised concerns about the outlook for exporters. It was a reminder that Japan is still too reliant on a weak currency and not enough on domestic demand.

Japan's dependence on public borrowing poses challenges for the private sector. Companies may want to take their rehabilitated balance sheets out for a ride and issue fresh debt to expand their business globally. Yet it's hard to sell debt with the government hogging so much of the market.

Eliminating this ``crowding out'' dynamic could produce a more vibrant economy in the long run. Giving companies more room to issue debt also would help Japan develop the internationally recognized corporate, municipal or asset-backed security markets it should already have by now.

Ball and Chain

The BOJ can't do that -- only the government can. Those arguing for higher BOJ rates forget that Japan's public debt complicates the process. Politicians call on the BOJ to act with restraint because every rate increase raises the government's borrowing costs. In a way, debt holds the BOJ hostage.

The Japanese economy needs to end this ball-and-chain situation, and a BOJ-government pact may be just the thing. Never mind that it flies in the face of Economics 101. Japan desperately needs to do something on debt that it has avoided for 15 years: something new.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Cebu, Philippines, or through the Tokyo newsroom at [email protected]

 

[masgui]

visto il grafo f4f

ora chi ha tempo domani o al massimo lunedi mi mette su una equazione con queste n variabili causali che possa avere due possibili risultati : recessione o espansione.

04/03/2007 23:30 AUD TDMI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.2% 0.0%
04/03/2007 23:50 JPY Capital Spending q/q 7.0% 13.5% 12.0%
05/03/2007 00:30 AUD Company Gross Operating Profits q/q 2.5% 2.4% 0.6%
05/03/2007 08:55 EUR German Services PMI 57.2 58.0 58.3
05/03/2007 09:00 EUR Services PMI 57.5 57.6 57.9
05/03/2007 09:30 GBP Services PMI 57.4 59.0 59.2
05/03/2007 15:00 CAD Ivey PMI 60.5 55.2 53.8
05/03/2007 15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 53.8 57.5 55.2
05/03/2007 15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.3 57.2 59.0
05/03/2007 16:00 USD St. Louis Fed President Poole Speaks
05/03/2007 19:00 USD Fed Governor Warsh Speaks
06/03/2007 00:30 AUD Building Approvals m/m -0.9% 0.5% -1.9%
06/03/2007 00:30 AUD Trade Balance -0.88B -1.15B -1.34B
06/03/2007 06:45 CHF GDP q/q 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
06/03/2007 10:00 EUR Retail Sales m/m -1.0% -0.3% 0.3%
06/03/2007 10:00 EUR GDP q/q (r) 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
06/03/2007 11:00 GBP BRC Retail Sales y/y 3.3% 2.2% 3.1%
06/03/2007 13:30 CAD Building Permits 11.3% 2.1% -9.0%
06/03/2007 13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q (r) 1.6% 1.7% 3.0%
06/03/2007 13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs q/q (r) 6.6% 3.2% 1.7%
06/03/2007 14:00 CAD Interest Rate Statement 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%
06/03/2007 15:00 USD Factory Orders m/m -5.6% -4.3% 2.6%
06/03/2007 18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed President Plosser Speaks
06/03/2007 19:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
06/03/2007 22:30 AUD Interest Rate Statement 6.25% 6.25% 6.25%
07/03/2007 00:01 GBP Consumer Confidence Index 85 82 84
07/03/2007 00:10 AUD RBA Assistant Governor Edey Speaks
07/03/2007 00:30 AUD GDP q/q 1.0% 0.5% 0.3%
07/03/2007 05:00 JPY Leading Index m/m 35.0% 35.0% 31.8%
07/03/2007 06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
07/03/2007 11:00 EUR German Factory Orders m/m -1.0% 0.4% 0.7%
07/03/2007 13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 57K 100K 121K
07/03/2007 15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.8M 1.4M
07/03/2007 18:00 USD Chicago Fed President Moskow Speaks
07/03/2007 19:00 USD Beige Book
07/03/2007 20:00 NZD Interest Rate Statement 7.50% 7.50% 7.25%
07/03/2007 20:00 USD Consumer Credit m/m 6.4B 7.0B 5.0B
07/03/2007 21:45 NZD Merchandise Terms of Trade q/q 2.4% -1.9%
07/03/2007 23:50 JPY M2+CD Money Supply y/y 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%
08/03/2007 06:45 CHF CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3% -0.7%
08/03/2007 07:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey 49.2 47.2
08/03/2007 07:45 EUR French Central Government Balance -5.5B -36.2B
08/03/2007 11:00 EUR German Industrial Production m/m 1.9% 0.3% 0.1%
08/03/2007 12:00 GBP Interest Rate Statement 5.25% 5.25% 5.25%
08/03/2007 12:45 EUR Interest Rate Statement 3.75% 3.75% 3.50%
08/03/2007 13:15 CAD Housing Starts 196K 214K 249K
08/03/2007 13:30 USD Unemployment Claims 328K 330K 338K
08/03/2007 13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
08/03/2007 13:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
08/03/2007 19:35 CAD BOC Governor Dodge Speaks
08/03/2007 23:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 3.9% 1.8% -0.7%
09/03/2007 07:00 EUR German Trade Balance 16.2B 14.3B 11.1B
09/03/2007 07:45 EUR French Trade Balance -2.8B -2.5B -2.6B
09/03/2007 07:45 EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.3% 0.1% 1.0%
09/03/2007 09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
09/03/2007 09:30 GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.2% -0.1%
09/03/2007 12:00 CAD Unemployment Rate 6.1% 6.2% 6.2%
09/03/2007 12:00 CAD Employment Change 14K 8K 89K
09/03/2007 13:30 CAD Trade Balance 6.3B 4.8B 5.0B
09/03/2007 13:30 USD Trade Balance -59.1B -59.5B -61.5B
09/03/2007 13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
09/03/2007 13:30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.6% 4.6%
09/03/2007 13:30 USD Nonfarm Employment Change 97K 100K 146K
09/03/2007 15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.7% 0.0% -0.5%