Bund, Tbond e la grossa coda gialla......(V.M. 77 anni)

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Japan's Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in Three Years (Update7)

By Lily Nonomiya

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy expanded 5.5 percent, the fastest pace in three years, as surging exports prompted companies to increase spending on factories and machinery.

Growth in the world's second-largest economy exceeded the government's initial 4.8 percent estimate in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The result was more than the 5.1 percent median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

``Japan's economy is solid and will keep expanding, driven by a solid corporate sector,'' said Takuji Aida, chief economist for Japan at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. ``The economy is likely to exceed at least its potential growth rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter.''

A jump in exports boosted the current account surplus by a more-than-expected 50 percent in January from a year earlier, a separate report showed today, and consumer confidence rose to a three-month high, signs that the economy will keep expanding. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than half of the economy, has shown signs of improvement, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said last week.

Japan's growth compares with 2.2 percent annualized growth in the U.S. and the 0.9 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion of the 12 nations that share the euro.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.8 percent to 17,292.39. The yen traded at 118.34 against the dollar at 5:15 p.m. in Tokyo from 118.37 before the report. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond increased 1 basis point to 1.615 percent.

Interest Rates, Inflation

The Bank of Japan doubled its benchmark overnight lending rate on Feb. 21 to 0.5 percent, its second rate increase in almost six years. Governor Toshihiko Fukui has said the central bank needs to gradually raise borrowing costs as the economy expands and prices rise.

Producer prices last month advanced at the slowest pace in 1 1/2 years as oil costs fell, a separate report showed today, adding to evidence there is little risk of inflation.

The measure for gross domestic product increased after a report last week showed corporate spending surged 16.8 percent, the fastest pace in at least four years. The release accounts for about 60 percent of the capital spending component of GDP.

Capital spending rose 3.1 percent, up from the 2.2 percent preliminary estimate and higher than the 2.8 percent expected by economists, today's figures showed. Inventories shaved 0.1 percent from growth, unchanged from the preliminary estimate.

Company Spending

Tokyo Electron Ltd. said last week it plans to spend 30 billion yen to build a new chip-making factory, its first in a decade. Canon Inc., Japan's most profitable electronics and office equipment maker, plans to increase spending this year by a quarter to 480 billion yen.

The nation's companies are upgrading machinery as the economy emerges from more than a decade of stagnation that followed the bursting of the 1980s bubble economy, and which left companies burdened with debt and too much production capacity.

Japan's current account surplus in January widened 50 percent to 1.19 trillion yen ($10.1 billion) from a year earlier as exports increased, a separate report showed today.

Exports in January climbed 18.2 percent, the fastest pace in eight months, led by sales of automobiles, electronics and steel, the finance ministry said.

`Very Focused'

Upbeat reports on household spending and exports since the beginning of the year have helped validate the Bank of Japan's February rate increase. The bank wants to raise borrowing costs, the lowest among major economies, to a level that more reflects the strength of the economy, or about 2 percent according to economists.

``The Bank of Japan is very focused on normalizing interest rates right now,'' said Aida. ``Very strong economic data could sway them to move before'' the July Upper House elections.

Consumer spending increased 1 percent, less than the government's initial 1.1 percent forecast. Spending will probably keep growing this quarter, said Yoshiki Shinke, an economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.

The economy watchers index, a gauge of sentiment of shopkeepers at the frontlines of the economy, rose to a four- month high in February.

Consumer Spending

``We are seeing some improvement,'' in consumer spending, Ota, the economy minister, said last week. ``However, wages still aren't rising so we will need to keep an eye on that.''

Wages fell 1.4 percent in January, the biggest slide in almost three years.

An inflation rate that threatens to turn negative is another obstacle to a rate increase. Producer prices climbed 1.8 in February, down from 2.2 percent in January, as oil costs fell.

``Consumer prices are expected to fall in February and will be very weak,'' Dai-Ichi's Shinke said. ``Even though the Bank of Japan has said the CPI is not the only thing they look at, raising rates at a time when inflation is negative is too high a hurdle for any central bank to clear.''

Nominal growth, which doesn't take price changes into account, grew at an annual 5.6 percent pace, faster than expansion in real terms and beating the government's initial estimate of 5 percent annual growth.

The GDP deflator, a broad measure of price changes, fell 0.5 percent from the same quarter a year ago, unchanged from the preliminary estimate.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at lnonomiya@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 12, 2007 04:19 EDT
 
La promessa della vita eterna ci permetterà di lavorare in eterno!

Germany Lifts Pension Age to 67 Amid Protests Over Joblessness

By Brian Parkin

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- German lawmakers voted to lift the retirement age to 67 from 65, shrugging off union protests over the government's record on cutting unemployment for the over-50s.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition pushed the provision through the lower house of parliament in Berlin today, meaning anyone born after 1964 -- just under half Germany's 82 million population -- will have to wait up to two years more before they qualify for the national pension. The changes come in from 2012, raising the retirement age in stages.

``We have to act,'' Labor Minister Franz Muentefering, the architect of the plan, told lawmakers today before the vote, saying that Germany had to counter the impact of an ageing population on the compulsory pension. ``We have to secure the financial viability of the plan.''

The measure is intended to help keep monthly pension contributions to under 20 percent of gross wages to help company competitiveness. Still, DGB union federation Chairman Michael Sommer has called the move ``cynical'' in view of the fact some 1.2 million people over 50 seek jobs in Germany. Only half of Germany's companies employ staff over 50, the Berlin-based group representing 6.6 million says.

The DGB organized protest rallies in the German capital today urging the government to amend its new retirement legislation.

The government says it will already spend about a third of its 267 billion-euro ($351 billion) budget on topping up the state pension this year. The country's 20 million pensioners haven't had a pay rise since 2004 and may have to wait until 2009 for the next one.

Compulsory Plan

Retirement checks -- paid to about a quarter of all Germans -- are financed from employees' wages and by the federal government. Membership of the plan is compulsory except for the self-employed. Male Germans retired last year at an average age of 63.1 years and females at 63.2 years, according to the DRV state pension fund.

Muentefering's plan may exacerbate economic problems by withdrawing consumption from the economy yet failing to increase employment, the unions have said. Europe's biggest economy lags competitors in employing the over-50s. Just 45 percent of people aged 55-to-64 were in work last year compared with 70 percent in Sweden and 65 percent in Switzerland, according to the Federal Statistics Office.

Muentefering will launch a program dubbed ``50 plus'' to persuade companies to hire older people, offering subsidies to employers who hire staff. In parliament today, he urged unions to focus on improving working conditions in manual trades to reduce eye, back and psychological stress that predominate as causes for early retirement.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: March 9, 2007 06:14 EST
 
f4f ha scritto:
goooooood morning bbbanda :)

atension atension....lo yen riprende a rafforzarsi...ora vediamo l'equity se segue a ruota.

compiti per domani: calcolare su una serie storica di due anni i coefficiente di correlazione: dax index / eur.yen :D
 
f4f ha scritto:
goooooood morning bbbanda :)



Olaaa

1173699534post-837-1173458602.jpg
 
masgui ha scritto:
atension atension....lo yen riprende a rafforzarsi...ora vediamo l'equity se segue a ruota.

compiti per domani: calcolare su una serie storica di due anni i coefficiente di correlazione: dax index / eur.yen :D

probabilmente gipa lo calcola con frequenza giornaliera già da qualche anno :up:
 
masgui ha scritto:
atension atension....lo yen riprende a rafforzarsi...ora vediamo l'equity se segue a ruota.

compiti per domani: calcolare su una serie storica di due anni i coefficiente di correlazione: dax index / eur.yen :D

ok :D
ma dammi i dati necessari :P
e già che sei lì, verifica la volaimpl del dax o linkami la pagggina di eurex dove mi becco i dati opzioni :p :p :p
 

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