Bund, Tbond e la grossa coda gialla......(V.M. 77 anni)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
Leo's
Forumer storico
dan24 ha scritto:ed il nikkey anche stamani più 1%.....a ruota dell'euro/yen che a sto punto rotti pure i 61.8% di ritracciamento della gamba ribassista....rotta la fama settimanale.....rotta anche sta cippa....sembra diretto a cambiare trend daily e ritornare positivo....oggi importante giornata di conferme....se chiude con un altra candela verde mi sa che mi gira il chart daily a Long...ed a questo punto con tutti gli indicatori scarichi avrebbe spazi incredibili di salita.....
a sto punto vediamo le resistenze statiche...prima a 157,30 , 158,07, 158,67 e poi i max 159,66.....
al ribasso a sto punto solo sotto i 155,80 e poi i 155,25....possibile ripresa del ribasso....ma la vedo sempre più dura......
continuo intraday....e che il kulo sia con me e con tutti voi
vallo a dire a quello della certezza matematica dell'altro post ...
w_fib
Forumer storico
Ciao Leo non sono d'accordo con il tuo post, nel senso che stai sindacando sul modo di porsi di Vcv e su quella è una questione meramente personale....posso dirti che sull'azionario è veramente una draga, fa e fa fare soldi a chi lo segue intraday.
Il fatto che le sue analisi siano spesso in antitesi con le mie o quelle di altri, non implica che io non lo rispetti e anzi tengo in estrema considerazione anche le sue idee, per farti un esempio, in una giornata anomala sebbene mi aspettassi una salita eur usd, visto che lui era ribassista mi sono coperto con uno short alla negazione del conteggio, quella giornata, disturbata da news e altamente volatile mi ha consentito di guadagnare in tutti e due i lati.
Se sei un trader esperto tieni conto solo del tuo metodo altrimenti valuta sempre le opinioni di tutti, specialmente in questo settore dove uno ha sempre ragione... e questo è importante nella gestione dei rischi
Il fatto che le sue analisi siano spesso in antitesi con le mie o quelle di altri, non implica che io non lo rispetti e anzi tengo in estrema considerazione anche le sue idee, per farti un esempio, in una giornata anomala sebbene mi aspettassi una salita eur usd, visto che lui era ribassista mi sono coperto con uno short alla negazione del conteggio, quella giornata, disturbata da news e altamente volatile mi ha consentito di guadagnare in tutti e due i lati.
Se sei un trader esperto tieni conto solo del tuo metodo altrimenti valuta sempre le opinioni di tutti, specialmente in questo settore dove uno ha sempre ragione... e questo è importante nella gestione dei rischi
Leo's
Forumer storico
Ma si, se infatti noti la frase finisce con una facciona sorridente, era quindi una battuta come tante che si fanno nel forum ...
E' ovvio che ognuno può avere view diverse..ci mancherebbe.
Ironizzavo solo un po' sulla certezza matematica e su alcune frasi simili utilizzate, totalmente sicure (da settimane) che entro un paio di giorni si sarebbe scesi a 150...
Poi, metti che qualcuno poco esperto potrebbe avere seguito tali previsioni ... da 152
fino a 157 sono ben 5 figure di loss...
Io personalmente, ad esempio, lo avevo seguito, mi sembrava convincente, ne sono uscito per fortuna ieri notte... Ora magari può anche crollare, è evidente che prima o poi lo farà. Personalmente, da oggi preferisco seguire solo me stesso, anche a costo di sbagliare.
ciao
E' ovvio che ognuno può avere view diverse..ci mancherebbe.
Ironizzavo solo un po' sulla certezza matematica e su alcune frasi simili utilizzate, totalmente sicure (da settimane) che entro un paio di giorni si sarebbe scesi a 150...
Poi, metti che qualcuno poco esperto potrebbe avere seguito tali previsioni ... da 152
fino a 157 sono ben 5 figure di loss...
Io personalmente, ad esempio, lo avevo seguito, mi sembrava convincente, ne sono uscito per fortuna ieri notte... Ora magari può anche crollare, è evidente che prima o poi lo farà. Personalmente, da oggi preferisco seguire solo me stesso, anche a costo di sbagliare.
ciao
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
BOJ Keeps Rate at 0.5% as Consumer Prices May Decline (Update4)
By Mayumi Otsuma
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's central bank kept interest rates unchanged as consumer prices threaten to drop, making it hard to justify a second consecutive increase.
Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board voted unanimously to keep the key overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies, the Bank of Japan said in a statement today in Tokyo. The bank doubled the rate last month.
``The Bank of Japan probably wants to monitor the effect of the February rate hike,'' said Mamoru Yamazaki, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.
Political pressure ahead of an election in July will also make it difficult for the bank to tighten credit until the last quarter of 2007, Yamazaki said. Business confidence in Japan probably fell from the highest in two years amid concern the U.S. economy may slow, the bank's Tankan survey may show next month.
The yen traded at 117.92 per dollar at 5:44 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 117.87 before the announcement. The yield on Japan's 10-year bond fell 1.5 basis points to 1.56 percent.
Today's decision was predicted by all 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Fukui said after last month's meeting that the board has no plans to raise rates consecutively.
The governor later told reporters that the U.S. economy remains likely to expand gradually, even after weak data raised concern that growth in Japan's largest export market may slow.
Tankan Survey
U.S. stocks slid last week as growing mortgage defaults heightened concern that the country's home-loan crisis is spreading. Fukui said the scale of the defaults in subprime mortgages probably wasn't large enough to alter the overall trend for the world's largest economy.
``The U.S. economy still appears to be heading for a soft landing,'' he said. ``Although the housing market has slowed, consumer spending is solid so we're still seeing a gradual expansion.''
Confidence among Japan's largest manufacturers probably slipped to 24 in March from a two-year high of 25 in December on concern a slowdown in the U.S. may crimp exports, according to the median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A positive number means optimists outnumber pessimists. The central bank will publish the Tankan report on April 2.
Japan's economy is ``expanding moderately,'' the bank said after today's policy decision, keeping its monthly assessment unchanged from February, when it dropped language expressing concern that consumer spending was weak.
Land Prices
Fukui said the Bank of Japan will consider land prices and currencies in addition to economic and price data when setting interest-rate policy. The central bank said last month that it raised the key rate because low borrowing costs could spur wasteful investment and asset bubbles.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's benchmark rate is 5.25 percent and the European Central Bank's is 3.75 percent, encouraging investors to borrow yen to buy higher-yielding assets overseas.
The yen has risen more than 2 percent since the Feb. 21 rate increase, partly after a stock-market rout between Feb. 27 and March 5 erased $3.3 trillion in world market value and prompted investors to sell risky assets and repay yen loans.
``We need to continue to monitor market movements closely and in a calm manner,'' Fukui told reporters. ``This appears to be a healthy correction where markets themselves re-evaluated the way they take risks.''
Consumer Prices
Reports may show Japan's core consumer prices dropped in February or March because of cheaper oil, Fukui said. Core prices, which exclude fresh food and are a key gauge of inflation in Japan, failed to rise in January after climbing 0.1 percent year- on-year in December.
Fukui said the drop in core prices wouldn't necessarily be bad because lower oil costs help economic growth. Core prices will stay on an expansionary path in the long term, he added.
Kazumasa Iwata, one of the bank's two deputy governors, said at the meeting that the policy makers should explain their outlook for consumer prices more clearly, according to Fukui. Iwata was the sole dissenter to last month's rate increase.
The world's second-largest economy grew 5.5 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, the fastest pace in three years, the government said last week. Business investment led the expansion, climbing 3.1 percent, while consumer spending rose 1 percent, barely offsetting a 1.1 percent drop in the previous three months.
``Consumption remains incapable of becoming a locomotive for economic growth, and behind that is a slump in wages,'' said Jun Ishii, chief fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co., who predicts the bank will next raise rates in October. ``The improvement of the corporate sector is failing to benefit households.''
Minutes of the two-day meeting will be published on May 7.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at [email protected]
Last Updated: March 20, 2007 04:49 EDT
By Mayumi Otsuma
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's central bank kept interest rates unchanged as consumer prices threaten to drop, making it hard to justify a second consecutive increase.
Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board voted unanimously to keep the key overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies, the Bank of Japan said in a statement today in Tokyo. The bank doubled the rate last month.
``The Bank of Japan probably wants to monitor the effect of the February rate hike,'' said Mamoru Yamazaki, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.
Political pressure ahead of an election in July will also make it difficult for the bank to tighten credit until the last quarter of 2007, Yamazaki said. Business confidence in Japan probably fell from the highest in two years amid concern the U.S. economy may slow, the bank's Tankan survey may show next month.
The yen traded at 117.92 per dollar at 5:44 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 117.87 before the announcement. The yield on Japan's 10-year bond fell 1.5 basis points to 1.56 percent.
Today's decision was predicted by all 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Fukui said after last month's meeting that the board has no plans to raise rates consecutively.
The governor later told reporters that the U.S. economy remains likely to expand gradually, even after weak data raised concern that growth in Japan's largest export market may slow.
Tankan Survey
U.S. stocks slid last week as growing mortgage defaults heightened concern that the country's home-loan crisis is spreading. Fukui said the scale of the defaults in subprime mortgages probably wasn't large enough to alter the overall trend for the world's largest economy.
``The U.S. economy still appears to be heading for a soft landing,'' he said. ``Although the housing market has slowed, consumer spending is solid so we're still seeing a gradual expansion.''
Confidence among Japan's largest manufacturers probably slipped to 24 in March from a two-year high of 25 in December on concern a slowdown in the U.S. may crimp exports, according to the median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A positive number means optimists outnumber pessimists. The central bank will publish the Tankan report on April 2.
Japan's economy is ``expanding moderately,'' the bank said after today's policy decision, keeping its monthly assessment unchanged from February, when it dropped language expressing concern that consumer spending was weak.
Land Prices
Fukui said the Bank of Japan will consider land prices and currencies in addition to economic and price data when setting interest-rate policy. The central bank said last month that it raised the key rate because low borrowing costs could spur wasteful investment and asset bubbles.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's benchmark rate is 5.25 percent and the European Central Bank's is 3.75 percent, encouraging investors to borrow yen to buy higher-yielding assets overseas.
The yen has risen more than 2 percent since the Feb. 21 rate increase, partly after a stock-market rout between Feb. 27 and March 5 erased $3.3 trillion in world market value and prompted investors to sell risky assets and repay yen loans.
``We need to continue to monitor market movements closely and in a calm manner,'' Fukui told reporters. ``This appears to be a healthy correction where markets themselves re-evaluated the way they take risks.''
Consumer Prices
Reports may show Japan's core consumer prices dropped in February or March because of cheaper oil, Fukui said. Core prices, which exclude fresh food and are a key gauge of inflation in Japan, failed to rise in January after climbing 0.1 percent year- on-year in December.
Fukui said the drop in core prices wouldn't necessarily be bad because lower oil costs help economic growth. Core prices will stay on an expansionary path in the long term, he added.
Kazumasa Iwata, one of the bank's two deputy governors, said at the meeting that the policy makers should explain their outlook for consumer prices more clearly, according to Fukui. Iwata was the sole dissenter to last month's rate increase.
The world's second-largest economy grew 5.5 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, the fastest pace in three years, the government said last week. Business investment led the expansion, climbing 3.1 percent, while consumer spending rose 1 percent, barely offsetting a 1.1 percent drop in the previous three months.
``Consumption remains incapable of becoming a locomotive for economic growth, and behind that is a slump in wages,'' said Jun Ishii, chief fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co., who predicts the bank will next raise rates in October. ``The improvement of the corporate sector is failing to benefit households.''
Minutes of the two-day meeting will be published on May 7.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at [email protected]
Last Updated: March 20, 2007 04:49 EDT
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
TOKYO, March 20 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Tuesday the BOJ will focus on economic and price moves in guiding monetary policy, reiterating that the bank will raise interest rates gradually from very low levels.
Fukui spoke after the BOJ decided to keep the overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.50 percent as widely expected by financial markets.
Following are key remarks he made in a news conference:
FINANCIAL MARKETS
"We need to calmly monitor whether moves in financial markets will have an impact on the real economy. Moves in financial markets so far have been a kind of healthy correction. In markets, players have been re-evaluating their risk-taking by themselves...
"Both the world economy and the Japanese economy are growing. In the United States, even though housing investments have been falling, consumption is growing firmly and overall the economy is growing moderately.
"At present, there are concerns over the subprime loans. But the size of the subprime mortgage market isn't seen as big enough to threaten the U.S. economy.
"Many view the issue as not suggesting a change in the broad U.S. economy." JAPANESE ECONOMY
"There has been little change in our current assessment as well as the outlook for domestic and overseas economic fundamentals and price conditions since the last policy meeting...
"The Japanese economy continues to expand moderately, and there is a high probability that the virtuous cycle of production, income and spending will continue to support growth...
"The U.S. economy is continuing to move in line with a soft-landing scenario.
PRICES/MONETARY POLICY
"It's possible that the core CPI may fall slightly year-on-year in February or March. Core CPI is likely to hover around zero in the near term.
"Stability in oil prices is welcome but it puts downward pressure on CPI. A drop in oil prices and oil-related products is positive for the economy, The CPI turning negative doesn't mean the economy will immediately enter deflation...
"In guiding monetary policy in a forward-looking manner, what is important is whether CPI would maintain its upward trend in the long run.
"There is no mistake in saying that the (upward) trend in prices will strengthen as the nation's output gap is tightening, albeit moderately.
But because of globalisation, the extent of a tightening in the output gap strengthening price trends may be weaker than past models. We need to deepen our analysis."
"While we'll maintain an accommodative monetary environment by keeping interest rates very low, we'll examine the economy and prices carefully and will gradually adjust the level of interest rates. There's no change in that stance."
LAND PRICES
"Whether land prices are rising excessively is one factor we have been interested in.
"The speed of rises in land prices in some areas of big cities seems to be accelerating. But on the whole, land prices are within justifiable levels in terms of the present value of cash flows one can earn using the land. I don't think they have reached significantly risky levels.
"It is difficult to make land prices the central focus (when guiding our monetary policy)... But we have to keep things like land prices and currencies somewhere in our mind. REPORTS ON PREVIOUS MEETING
Asked about the fact that some media reported before the bank's formal policy announcement at its meeting last month that Fukui proposed a rate hike:
"Those media reports could disturb markets and are very undesirable...
"During monetary policy meetings, (BOJ board members and staff) can hardly step out of the conference room and even when they do, they can only go to limited areas...
"We've confirmed that no one contacted any outsiders. I heard from the government that their staff also tightly controls information."
© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved.
Fukui spoke after the BOJ decided to keep the overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.50 percent as widely expected by financial markets.
Following are key remarks he made in a news conference:
FINANCIAL MARKETS
"We need to calmly monitor whether moves in financial markets will have an impact on the real economy. Moves in financial markets so far have been a kind of healthy correction. In markets, players have been re-evaluating their risk-taking by themselves...
"Both the world economy and the Japanese economy are growing. In the United States, even though housing investments have been falling, consumption is growing firmly and overall the economy is growing moderately.
"At present, there are concerns over the subprime loans. But the size of the subprime mortgage market isn't seen as big enough to threaten the U.S. economy.
"Many view the issue as not suggesting a change in the broad U.S. economy." JAPANESE ECONOMY
"There has been little change in our current assessment as well as the outlook for domestic and overseas economic fundamentals and price conditions since the last policy meeting...
"The Japanese economy continues to expand moderately, and there is a high probability that the virtuous cycle of production, income and spending will continue to support growth...
"The U.S. economy is continuing to move in line with a soft-landing scenario.
PRICES/MONETARY POLICY
"It's possible that the core CPI may fall slightly year-on-year in February or March. Core CPI is likely to hover around zero in the near term.
"Stability in oil prices is welcome but it puts downward pressure on CPI. A drop in oil prices and oil-related products is positive for the economy, The CPI turning negative doesn't mean the economy will immediately enter deflation...
"In guiding monetary policy in a forward-looking manner, what is important is whether CPI would maintain its upward trend in the long run.
"There is no mistake in saying that the (upward) trend in prices will strengthen as the nation's output gap is tightening, albeit moderately.
But because of globalisation, the extent of a tightening in the output gap strengthening price trends may be weaker than past models. We need to deepen our analysis."
"While we'll maintain an accommodative monetary environment by keeping interest rates very low, we'll examine the economy and prices carefully and will gradually adjust the level of interest rates. There's no change in that stance."
LAND PRICES
"Whether land prices are rising excessively is one factor we have been interested in.
"The speed of rises in land prices in some areas of big cities seems to be accelerating. But on the whole, land prices are within justifiable levels in terms of the present value of cash flows one can earn using the land. I don't think they have reached significantly risky levels.
"It is difficult to make land prices the central focus (when guiding our monetary policy)... But we have to keep things like land prices and currencies somewhere in our mind. REPORTS ON PREVIOUS MEETING
Asked about the fact that some media reported before the bank's formal policy announcement at its meeting last month that Fukui proposed a rate hike:
"Those media reports could disturb markets and are very undesirable...
"During monetary policy meetings, (BOJ board members and staff) can hardly step out of the conference room and even when they do, they can only go to limited areas...
"We've confirmed that no one contacted any outsiders. I heard from the government that their staff also tightly controls information."
© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. consumer price index inflation accelerated again in February, spurred by increases in airfares and the implementation of air passenger duty, data from the Office for National Statistics Tuesday showed.
The retail price index also jumped to a 15-and-a-half-year high last month, pushed up by mortgage interest payments, as lenders continued to pass on January's rate rise to consumers, the ONS said.
Taken together, the figures may fuel expectations that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates again in the coming months, to 5.5% from the current 5.25%, to keep inflation under control.
The CPI annual rate rose 2.8% in February, following a 2.7% gain in January. That beat the expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who forecast an annual gain of 2.6%, and means that the CPI has now been above the BOE's 2% target for 10 months.
The largest factor behind the acceleration was an increase in transport costs due to higher airfares, in particular to European destinations.
ONS said that airfares rose an estimated 10% in February and contributed 0.08 point to the CPI gain. Of that, 0.03 point was due to air passenger duty, which came into force Feb. 1.
In on-the-month terms, the CPI rose 0.4%, faster than an average forecast for a 0.3% increase.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
March 20, 2007 05:40 ET (09:40 GMT)
Copyright 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
The retail price index also jumped to a 15-and-a-half-year high last month, pushed up by mortgage interest payments, as lenders continued to pass on January's rate rise to consumers, the ONS said.
Taken together, the figures may fuel expectations that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates again in the coming months, to 5.5% from the current 5.25%, to keep inflation under control.
The CPI annual rate rose 2.8% in February, following a 2.7% gain in January. That beat the expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who forecast an annual gain of 2.6%, and means that the CPI has now been above the BOE's 2% target for 10 months.
The largest factor behind the acceleration was an increase in transport costs due to higher airfares, in particular to European destinations.
ONS said that airfares rose an estimated 10% in February and contributed 0.08 point to the CPI gain. Of that, 0.03 point was due to air passenger duty, which came into force Feb. 1.
In on-the-month terms, the CPI rose 0.4%, faster than an average forecast for a 0.3% increase.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
March 20, 2007 05:40 ET (09:40 GMT)
Copyright 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
US: NAHB survey falls first time since September
In the US, the NAHB housing market index fell from a downwardly revised 39 in February to 36 in March. It was the first fall since September last year and indicates that the woes in the housing market are not over yet. According to the NAHB are builders uncertain about the consequences of tightening mortgage lending standards for their home sales activity. The NAHB continues to forecast a modest improvement in home sales during 2007, but admitted that the problems in the housing market increase the degree of uncertainty surrounding this forecast.
In the US, the NAHB housing market index fell from a downwardly revised 39 in February to 36 in March. It was the first fall since September last year and indicates that the woes in the housing market are not over yet. According to the NAHB are builders uncertain about the consequences of tightening mortgage lending standards for their home sales activity. The NAHB continues to forecast a modest improvement in home sales during 2007, but admitted that the problems in the housing market increase the degree of uncertainty surrounding this forecast.
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