Bund, Tbond e la storia infinita (VM 91.5 anni)

[dan24]

esatto Leo...

per i puristi dello short (no perditempo longhisti plse)....ditemi come nun si fa a shortare un titolo così?

io una chip...ce l'ho messa a 22.94...anticipando ovviamente...ma ha un gap sul daily da far paura...e dopo il terzo giorno di gap aperto ed una inclinazione del genere....

SHORTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT ALLA MORTE

zooommm del GAPPP

 

[f4f]

giusto, ma questa mi sembra un'operazione con rischio limitato, dimmi se sbaglio però che con le opzioni non è che sia un mago.

buy 1 put 8000 , spesi 300
sell 1 put 7950 , incassati 200
spesa massima e rischio massimo quindi 100 usd, no? (se non mi sfugge qualcosa)

anche se scendesse a 770, avremmo 30 punti di gain sulla put 800.0, ovvero 3000 usd e 25 di loss sulla put venduta 795.0, cioè 2500 usd. quindi 500 usd sono sempre di gain...
o no?

premetto che queste opa non le conosco, quindi non parlo di valori o strike o modalità d'esercizio ( americana, europea)

vedimm solo le due operazioni
è un vertical bear spread con le put
max spesa 100, max gain ( 8000-7950-costo)



qui sotto, vedi anche quali devono essere le tue aspettative



Option Strategy:
Bear Put Debit Spread (Vertical Bear Puts)

Investor Sentiment:
Moderate Bearish Strategy (Small Debit Spread): It's considered a bearish strategy because you profit if the underlying stock price decreases.

Profit Potential:
This strategy requires the investor to buy an in-the-money put option and sell an out-of-the-money put option on the same stock with the same expiration date. This is also known as a vertical bear put spread. If the stock price closes below the out-of-the-money (lower) put option strike price on the expiration date, then the investor reaches maximum profits.

Risks:
If the stock price increases above the in-the-money (higher) put option strike price at the expiration date, then the investor has a maximum loss potential of the net debit.

Drawbacks:
Lower risk than strictly buying a put option, but limited profit potential. Break-even at upper strike price minus net debit. Maximum profit potential if stock decreases below the out-of-the-money (lower) put option strike price. Similar to a Bull Call Spread, this strategy is a debit spread position. That is, the amount of the sale of the put option position brings in less than is needed to purchase the put option position.

Profit / Loss Summary:
Net Debit = Money received from selling out-of-the-money (OTM) put options - Money paid for buying in-the-money (ITM) put options
Maximum Profit Potential = Difference Between Strike Prices - Net Debit
Maximum Loss Potential = Net Debit

Bear Put Spread Introduction

The Bear Put Spread strategy requires the investor to buy in-the-money (higher) strike price put options while simultaneously selling out-of-the-money (lower) strike price put options on the same underlying stock. A Bear Put Spread strategy is profitable when the stock price moves below the break-even point: upper strike price minus net debit. A characteristic of the vertical Bear Put Spread is the put options are sold and bought on the same underlying stock with the same expiration date (this is why it's known as a "vertical spread"). CallsAndPuts.com "Bear Put Spread" data focuses on bear put spread plays that are vertical in nature. The benefit of the Bear Put Spread strategy is the risk never exceeds the net investment of buying and selling put options simultaneously. This strategy is considered moderately bearish because the investor is using the the sale of a put to reduce his/her risk while still positioning for a decent profit should the stock price move below the lower put option strike price. The maximum loss potential is reached if the stock moves above the in-the-money (higher) put option strike price.

Definition - Debit Spread Position

As previously mentioned, a Bear Put Spread is the purchase of an in-the-money (higher) put option while simultaneously selling an out-of-the money (lower) put option on the same underlying stock. There are more aggressive and less aggressive Bear Put Spread positions, but CallsAndPuts.com "Bear Put Spread" data looks for plays where one put option position (leg) is in-the-money and the other leg is out-of-the-money on the same underlying stock with the same option expiration date. That is, there is one strike price above the stock price and one below. Because the sale of the out-of-the-money (lower) strike price brings in less cash flow than the cost of purchasing an in-the-money (higher) strike price put option, it is considered a "Debit Spread". To emphasize, if a spread position takes in more through the sale of one put option position than it costs to purchase the other put option position, it is a "credit spread". If the opposite were true, that is the put buy position costs more than the sale of the other put position, this is known as a "debit spread". This is the type of position (a debit spread) you see with Bull Call Spreads and Bear Put Spreads. A Bear Put Spread position is always considered a debit spread because the purchase of the in-the-money (higher) put strike price costs more than is received for selling the out-of-the-money (lower) put option.

Bear Put Spread Example

Let's go through a bear put spread example from the CallsAndPuts.com "Bear Put Spread" data:

Stock Company Name/Ticker Symbol: Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Stock Price: $67
Sold Out-Of-The-Money Put Option (Short Position): 1 contract - June $65 @ $3.75
Bought In-The-Money Put Option (Long Position): 1 contract - June $70 @ $6.63
Call Options Expiration Date: June (The market close of the third Friday of the month)

This position is considered a net debit of $2.88, spread of $5. That is the difference between the sale of the out-of-the-money (lower) put option and the purchase of the in-the-money (higher) put option which results in a negative cash flow (debit) of $2.88 ($6.63 - $3.75). The spread represents the difference between the in-the-money and out-of-the-money strike prices, which are $5 apart (June $70 put option - June $65 put option). So, what does all of this translate to for potential profit? Let's assume the stock price is below the out-of-the-money (lower) put option strike price ($65) on the June expiration date. That would translate to a maximum profit of the difference between the strike prices minus the net debit or $5 - $2.88 = $2.12 x 1 contract (100 shares) for a maximum profit of $212 per contract.

Now let's look at the maximum loss potential should the stock price go above the higher option strike price on the June expiration date. Due to our Bear Put Spread option positions, we have pre-determined the maximum amount we are willing to lose. That maximum loss potential translates to the $2.88 debit spread x 1 contract (100 shares) = $288 per contract.

To summarize:

Net Debit = Money received from selling out-of-the-money (OTM) put options - Money paid for buying in-the-money (ITM) put options

Maximum Profit Potential = Difference Between Strike Prices - Net Debit

Maximum Loss Potential = Net Debit

 

[f4f]

in soldoni
sei in perdita finchè non si raggiunge il primo strike + (100)
e siccome non conosco il mercato in cui sei , non posso che darti indicazione generica sulla strategia

dico solo che , in teoria, un vertical spread non andrebbe toccato fino a che non cambiano le ipotesi che lo hanno generato, in questo caso di discesa dell'indice entro la data di expiry

 

[masgui]

esatto Leo...

per i puristi dello short (no perditempo longhisti plse)....ditemi come nun si fa a shortare un titolo così?

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1171296490finmeccanica.png

io una chip...ce l'ho messa a 22.94...anticipando ovviamente...ma ha un gap sul daily da far paura...e dopo il terzo giorno di gap aperto ed una inclinazione del genere....

SHORTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT ALLA MORTE

zooommm del GAPPP

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1171296673finmeccanica.png

Si hai ragione dan...ci ho provato anche io due sedute fa. Il suo trend è solamente folle. ma la follia può durare anche tutta una vita. comunque condordo in pieno lo short. In qeusto caso è come alla roulette. Dopo 15 rossi bisogna puntare sul nero non cè altro da fare anche matematicamente. Ma poi però tutto si basa sui grandi numeri. E magari escono 500 neri di fila dopo 500 rossi di fila. Non te lo auguro. anzi domani mattina entro pure io. stop a 23.10. a domani oggi sono stato incasinato.

 

[f4f]

Si hai ragione dan...ci ho provato anche io due sedute fa. Il suo trend è solamente folle. ma la follia può durare anche tutta una vita. comunque condordo in pieno lo short. In qeusto caso è come alla roulette. Dopo 15 rossi bisogna puntare sul nero non cè altro da fare anche matematicamente. Ma poi però tutto si basa sui grandi numeri. E magari escono 500 neri di fila dopo 500 rossi di fila. Non te lo auguro. anzi domani mattina entro pure io. stop a 23.10. a domani oggi sono stato incasinato.

la legge dei grandi numeri
vale sui grandi numeri

se ricordo bene, a testa e croce si ottiene una approssimazionedel 50% dopo 10.000 tiri
10.000 giorni di borsa, a 200 giorni per anno, fa 50 anni


a domani bbbanditi

 

[Leo's]

in soldoni
sei in perdita finchè non si raggiunge il primo strike + (100)
e siccome non conosco il mercato in cui sei , non posso che darti indicazione generica sulla strategia

dico solo che , in teoria, un vertical spread non andrebbe toccato fino a che non cambiano le ipotesi che lo hanno generato, in questo caso di discesa dell'indice entro la data di expiry

grazie f4f

 

[ditropan]

... bestiale questa !!!

 

[gipa69]

What if this is as good as it gets?”
--Melvin Udall in the movie “As Good as It Gets.”


I grabbed The Wall Street Journal as I raced for the airplane last Monday morning on my way from Jackson Hole to Dallas for meetings with portfolio managers and to do some seminars for my firm's Texas-based financial advisors. Once seated, I began my daily ritual of perusing the “Journal” as the plane climbed out. While the first two sections contained little inferential information, when I turned to section “C,” there “they” were. Indeed, the right side column above the fold read, “Dow Theory Seems in Play For Some Bulls (as the) Transportation Average Joins the Industrials At a High; More Gains?” The story went on to note that the prior week had seen the D-J Transportation Average (DJTA) confirm the D-J Industrial Average’s (DJIA) upside breakout to new all-time highs by FINALLY bettering its May 9, 2006 all-time closing high of 4998.95. At the time my firm stated that our studies of Dow Theory show that the longer such a confirmation takes to occur the less meaning it has, but I digress.

Nevertheless, the thing that really caught my eye in said article was a comment by John Wilson, Chief technical analyst at Morgan Keegan, who said, “It is kind of hard to make a case that it isn’t about as good as it gets.” As good as it gets...? If that’s the case, I thought, participants should consider that old stock market axiom, “When things were as good as it gets; I sold!” And “sell” they did as most of the indices I monitor closed down for the week.

Interestingly, the only indexes in our universe that closed higher for the week were the D-J Utility Average (+2.6%) and the S&P 400 MidCap (+0.25%). Meanwhile, copper, tin,
silver and cocoa all gained at least 4%, but again I digress.

On the left side of section “C,” and also above the fold, was another article titled, “Rising Stocks Kindle Worries Of a ‘Melt-Up.” This article began:


"Word is spreading on Wall Street that stocks may get rocked this year. It’s not a meltdown investors are jabbering about: It’s a melt-up.”


The gifted author, Scott Patterson, went on to quote various stock market pundits that cited the indexes could be set up for a “powerful surge” driven by a stronger than expected economy, tame inflation, solid earnings, and a sense by investors that they are missing the “upside boat.” Also mentioned in the bullish bias were private equity funds, hedge funds, and short sellers, all of which could add to the upside fireworks. Now call me too cautious, which would be correct for recent history, but I have seen such anecdotal evidence before and would note that these kinds of articles have historically come around upside inflection points.

I mention these inferential articles this morning because the equity markets feel “heavy” to me, most of my firm's proprietary indicators have “topped out” and are rolling over, many of the market’s darlings like MasterCard (MA) got “spanked” last week, and the fact that valuations are not particularly cheap. Consider this commentary from the London-based newspaper the Financial Times:


“Stock markets often have an instinctive need for catharsis. Long, uninterrupted market runs inevitably invite speculation about how much more they can be sustained. A correction is often needed to clear the doubts before the run continues. The US equity market is now looking deep in overdue territory for such a move. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was expected yesterday to pass its 137th trading day since July 17 without a correction of 2 per cent of more, according to Ned Davis Research. That is the second longest stretch on record after a run between September 1953 and June 1954. And the Dow has gone 53 months without a correction of 10% or more.

Like an extended run of a ball landing black on a roulette wheel, that does not necessarily mean the odds have increased that the market is heading into the red next. But it is enough to raise uncertainty in investor minds. It is notable that the S&P 500 was expected yesterday to show its smallest monthly rise in January since July. Another signal also is not so bullish - the ratio of the market's price-earnings multiple to its earnings growth rate. So-called peg ratios for individual stocks have justly fallen out of favour. After all, there is no reason a stock should be considered undervalued just because its p/e multiple is below its earnings growth rate.

But at the macro level, Absolute Strategy Research (ASR) points out that the peg ratio at extreme levels has had a good track record in signaling market shifts. Ian Harnett, ASR managing director, says the peg ratio for the US market is now 1.83 times. Since 1988, there have been 11 occasions when the ratio has risen as high or more. Each time, the market has fallen subsequently over six and 12months. The average fall over six months was 8 per cent. Over a year, the average fall was 12.88%. ASR says when the peg ratio rises so high, it may signal the point where analysts have started cutting earnings forecasts but the market has yet to catch up. Given the track record, it is not something that should be dismissed out of hand.”

So, as repeatedly stated in my firm's presentations last week, “We are cautious currently, believing that the next few months will provide more clarity regarding the economy, interest rates, earnings, the political winds, geopolitical events”...well you get the idea.

However, one area where my firm has been unwaveringly bullish for the past six years has been “stuff stocks,” preferably stuff-stocks with a yield. Recall that our bullish vent has not just centered on oil, natural gas and coal, but timber, cement, fertilizer, grains, water, uranium, electricity (read: utilities), base/precious metals, etc., although at times we have urged caution even in these venues on a short-term trading basis. Most recently, my firm's mid-January “call” to re-accumulate energy stocks has proven timely given black-gold’s rally from roughly $50/barrel to nearly $60 with a concomitant rise for the energy stocks. While my firm embraces many of our analysts’ stock-specific energy recommendations, like 4%-yielding Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF), for a shotgun approach we have liked BlackRock’s 5.6%-yielding Global Energy & Resource Fund (BGR). Like crude oil’s upside breakout, gold broke out to the upside in the charts last week with equal ebullience for the precious metals stocks. My firm continues to invest and trade accordingly.

The call for this week: Last week the DJTA declined 1.75%, potentially aborting the previous week’s Dow Theory “Buy Signal.” This is consistent with my firm's notes, which show that following a significant rally, when the Transports FINALLY do confirm the Dow’s upside sprint, it is often a sell signal on a short-term trading basis. The resulting double-top chart formation can be seen in the following chart from the good folks at “thechartstore.com.” For investors wishing to hedge their portfolios for such a potential sell-signal, my firm had dinner last week with David Tice of the Prudent Bear Funds (BEARX), whose funds are not just “short” equities, but “long” precious metals stocks. My firm thinks such a fund deserves at least a marginal investment in portfolios as an “anchor to windward.”

 

[gipa69]

"Market Monitor"-Mario Gabelli, Chairman of Gamco Investors
Friday, February 09, 2007
SUSIE GHARIB: 2006 was an important year for our market monitor guest, Mario Gabelli, chairman of Gamco Investors. Most of his mutual funds and individual portfolios delivered returns of 20 percent or better. Gabelli also settled a legal dispute with his original financial backers and a lawsuit with the Federal Communications Commission that charged Gabelli with manipulating government auctions for cell phone licenses. When I talked with Gabelli this afternoon, I asked him what he learned from these experiences.

MARIO GABELLI, CHAIRMAN & PORTFOLIO MANAGER, GAMCO INVESTORS: Well, you know, we're active business people and I don't remember the chapter that gave the paraphrase that being active in business, you're going to be sued and we're going to sue and we continue to fight for our shareholders' rights and stay focused on the basic business. As long as we make money for our clients, that's our main mission.

GHARIB: Mario, let's move on to your outlook for the stock market. You're forecasting 5 to 10 percent gains in stocks. What's your thinking here?

GABELLI: The economies around the world will do well, profits well, inflation in check. The markets will track earnings. We think earnings in part because of exports, in part because of the translation into dollars will be up 5 to 10 percent. So that's the goal that we're looking for.

GHARIB: You are also looking for a correction some time this year.

GABELLI: Well, we haven't had one and we know in part because we've been around a long time, that something always goes wrong -- and I can give you a laundry list of 10 or 15 items and whatever will go wrong, is not on that list. But a correction of 10, 15 percent has to be ruled in the cards and not out of the cards.

GHARIB: You have at the top of your stock recommendation list Hilton Hotels. What's the attraction?

GABELLI: There's a lot of takeovers and consolidation in the lodging industry. Hilton itself put together the Hilton outside of the United States have one common brand. (INAUDIBLE) the CEO is retiring. It is going to do a very good job. Fundamentals are terrific. There's an outside chance the company could be sold.

GHARIB: Is this a "buy" and "hold" or is it just a consolidation play?

GABELLI: No, no, it's - at $37, we think you can do quite well over the next several years by holding it and the company itself may be sold, but even if it's not, it will earn a good return.

GHARIB: Tell us about your interest in Gaylord Entertainment.

GABELLI: Well, Gaylord is an interesting company, located in Nashville. Some of us remember it as the old Opreyland (ph). The stock Gaylord has about 40 million shares. The stock is trading at 55.6 and we think they have a very good business model, catering to conventions, good occupancy, good growth and lots of communities that want them in their backyard.

GHARIB: (INAUDIBLE) TBL.

GABELLI: The small, over-the-air broadcasters were perceived to be dinosaurs in a Google-type world. When we look at it, they put the capital expenditures into going digital -- that's behind them. Secondly, they're starting to get revenues from the cable networks and from the satellite companies and from the telephone companies so that they're getting paid for their local programming. So economics are good and then in '08 you have an election and you have an election that will result in a tsunami of spending on political and the small broadcasters benefit. (INAUDIBLE) should earn about $0.80 in '08 and the owners of that company are in part (INAUDIBLE). Our clients own a substantial piece. We think the stock will double from here.

GHARIB: Dannon, the yogurt company, why do you like that stock?

GABELLI: That's kind of a fun stock, Susie. Yogurt is part of wellness. Everyone is thinking about eating better, eating healthier. Yogurt in the United States is just starting to take off. It's well understood, well consumed around the world and they have a water play between Evian (INAUDIBLE) in China and Volvick (ph). They are a prime beneficiary of the fastest growing segments of the food categories.

GHARIB: Speaking of beverages, you have Brown Foreman on your list.

GABELLI: That one is for those of us that like to have bourbon. And bourbon plays well in terms of the 1.3 billion consumers in China, what can we produce here to export there. And Jack Daniel's is very attractive. Brown Foreman owns it. They own some other wonderful brands like Findlandia and we like that.

GHARIB: The last stock on your list, Tyco International.

GABELLI: Tyco is splitting into three parts. The stock is currently $32, so Tyco will be a new Tyco and that is going to be an intriguing business, absolutely phenomenal. Secondly, it's going to own health care products and third they'll spin off their electronic businesses. So Tyco split up is worth more than what it's selling for today.

GHARIB: Mario, as for a disclosure, do you or your firm personally own any of these stocks that you're recommending?

GABELLI: We own them all, except for Hilton. And Hilton our clients have about 5.5 million shares.

GHARIB: All right, thank you so much, Mario. Pleasure to see you.

GABELLI: Great to talk about our favorite subject, stocks.

 

[gastronomo]

Uè Ditro, può servirti questa letturina? A dopo
Corn, Soybeans May Rise as El Nino Fades, Raising Crop Concern
By Jeff Wilson

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Corn and soybean prices in Chicago may rise on forecasts for a shift in the El Nino weather pattern that will damage crops this year in the U.S., the world's largest producer.

Twenty of 25 traders, farm advisers and grain merchants surveyed Feb. 9 said to buy corn after prices rose 1.1 percent last week, the first gain in three weeks. Seventeen respondents said to buy soybeans, which rose 1.7 percent after reaching the highest price since June 2005.

Rapid cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters since December will help create above-normal rains that may increase planting delays into May, said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. Dryness during the growing season from June to August may damage shallow-rooted crops, he said. Corn already has reached a 10-year high on record demand for ethanol.

``Spring planting delays because of wet weather may push U.S. crop reproduction into the drier and warmer weeks of summer, possibly hurting production,'' Lerner said from Kansas City, Kansas, after releasing his long-term forecast Feb. 9. ``The intensity of the potential Midwest dryness will come into better focus in the next six weeks.''

Corn futures for March delivery rose 4.25 cents to $4.0625 a bushel last week on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices surged a record 81 percent last year, and on Jan. 17 reached $4.205, the highest since July 1996.

Soybeans

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 12.5 cents to $7.4925 a bushel in Chicago last week, after gaining Feb. 9 to $7.57, the highest since June 27, 2005. Prices increased 3.2 percent in January and 27 percent last year on speculation that higher returns from growing corn would cut soybean plantings.

Most respondents surveyed Feb. 2 correctly predicted last week's gains. The corn survey has been accurate 55 percent of the time since it began April 26, 2004. The soybean survey, which started six weeks later, has been correct 55 percent.

Global corn inventories will drop to the lowest since 1978, even after the U.S. harvested its third-largest crop ever last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Feb. 9. World demand will reach a record 729 million tons, exceeding output for the sixth time in seven years. Five of those years generated record world crops.

The U.S. produced 10.535 billion bushels of corn last year, down from 11.112 billion after farmers planted 3.9 percent fewer acres and a drought damaged fields. U.S. inventories of corn on Aug. 31, before the next harvest, probably will fall to an 11- year low of 752 million bushels.

Cooling Pacific

When equatorial waters in the Pacific cool quickly and El Nino fades, the emerging weather pattern often is a so-called La Nina, increasing the chances for warm, dry weather and reduced U.S. crop production, Lerner said.

The decay in El Nino to a neutral or La Nina pattern occurred four times since 1980, and corn yields fell in each of those years, said Roy Huckabay, executive vice president for the Linn Group in Chicago. Corn yields dropped 19 percent in 1980, 32 percent in 1983, 35 percent in 1988 and 25 percent in 1995.

``This market will rally sharply on any threat to yields and could get real extreme on actual losses,'' Huckabay said. ``These weather forecasts are creating a concern about reduced production at a time when more bushels are needed'' to supply the growth in demand from ethanol makers and livestock producers, Huckabay said.

No More Land

Prices also may rise after U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said Feb. 7 that no land set aside in government conservation programs will be used for planting corn, soybeans and other crops until 2008.

About 37 million acres are enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program, which allows farmers to idle land in return for a government payment. Land in the program is administered under 10-year contracts. The USDA is considering whether to release farmers from contracts without penalty in order to put more land into crop production.

Export Demand

Corn and soybeans also may rise on signs of improving overseas demand for U.S. supplies.

Corn exporters sold 917,300 metric tons for the week ended Feb. 1, up 15 percent from the prior week, the USDA said Feb. 8. Orders for U.S. corn from overseas buyers have risen 23 percent to 35.674 million metric tons for the year ending Aug. 31 from 28.973 million at the same time last year.

Soybean sales rose 19 percent to 803,200 tons in the week ended Feb. 1 from a week earlier. Export orders in the marketing year that ends Aug. 31 are up 30 percent at 23.701 million tons, USDA said. Sales to China, the biggest global buyer, have risen 34 percent to 9.814 million tons.

``These prices are still very reasonable,'' said John Welsh, senior vice president at Peregrine Financial Group Inc. in Chicago. ``There is real demand for these products, not just speculation.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at [email protected]

Last Updated: February 11, 2007 19:00 EST