Bund, Tbond, hardlanding and the Fleurs subprime lending....
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leo-kondor ha scritto:
ragiona sulle due parentesi e avrai risolto i tuoi problemi
saluti
quicksilver
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gipa69 ha scritto:
anche tu stai diventando shortista , è contagioso....
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U.S. Economy Expanded at a 1.3% Annual Rate in First Quarter
By Joe Richter
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew in the first quarter at the slowest pace in four years, hobbled by the slump in home construction and a bigger trade deficit.
The 1.3 percent annual growth rate was less than forecast and followed a 2.5 percent fourth-quarter pace, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. A measure of inflation watched by the Federal Reserve rose at a faster pace.
Consumer spending kept the expansion alive as the slowdown in housing extended to a sixth quarter, the longest continuous slide in a generation. A burst of inflation last quarter will prevent Federal Reserve policy makers from lowering interest rates to stimulate growth, economists said.
``The Fed was correct in identifying the elevated downside risks to economy,'' Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto, said before the report. ``But they are prepared to wait it out.''
Last quarter's growth rate was the weakest since the first three months of 2003. Growth in the 12 months ended in March slowed to 2.1 percent, the weakest year-over-year gain since the second quarter of 2003.
Before adjusting for inflation, the economy expanded at a 5.3 percent annual pace last quarter, up from 4.1 percent.
Today's report is the government's first estimate of the quarter's gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced. The figures will be revised in each of the next two months.
Economists expected a 1.8 percent gain in GDP last quarter, according to the median estimate of 83 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Growth estimates ranged from 1.2 percent to 2.7 percent.
Prices Jump
A jump in oil last quarter pushed up prices. The report's price index rose at an annual rate of 4 percent, the most since 1991, compared with 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter.
The Fed's preferred inflation measure, which is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and energy costs, rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate, up from a 1.8 percent fourth-quarter gain. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is among policy makers that have said a 1 percent to 2 percent increase is preferable.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, rose at an annual rate of 3.8 percent last quarter, compared with a 4.2 percent pace in the previous three months. Before today's report, quarterly consumer-spending gains averaged 3.7 percent the past decade.
Home construction fell at an annual rate of 17 percent last quarter, after contracting by 19.8 percent in the previous three months. The decline subtracted 1 percentage point from first- quarter growth. The last time spending on home construction dropped for six consecutive quarters was in the early 1980s.
Investment Gains
Business fixed investment, which includes spending on commercial construction as well as equipment and software, rose at a 2 percent annual rate, after falling at a 3.1 percent rate from October through December. Spending on new equipment and software increased 1.9 percent.
Economists pared GDP estimates throughout the quarter as Commerce reports showed shipments of capital equipment slumped. Commerce now also uses the Fed's industrial production report, which showed increases in production of computers and communications hardware, to supplement the durable-goods reports in estimating business spending.
Companies added to stockpiles at a $14.8 billion annual rate last quarter after a $22.4 billion annualized fourth-quarter gain. The figures subtracted 0.3 percentage point from growth.
The trade deficit widened to an annual pace of $597.8 billion from $582.6 billion in the fourth quarter. The deficit reduced GDP by 0.52 percentage point.
`Moderate' Growth
So far, there is scant evidence of a pickup in growth. The Fed's Beige Book, a compendium of regional anecdotes that will frame policy makers' discussions about the economy when they next meet on May 9, said that most district banks reported ``only modest or moderate'' economic growth since late February. Real estate ``continued to weaken,'' and ``many districts saw a decrease in homebuilding,'' the report said.
A jump in subprime-mortgage defaults and foreclosures heighten the risk that the real estate slump will linger, economists said. Signs have emerged that woes in manufacturing and housing are suppressing demand in other industries.
Norfolk Southern Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. railroad, said this week that first-quarter profit fell on fewer shipments of autos and homebuilding supplies. Norfolk Chief Executive Officer Charles ``Wick'' Moorman said in an interview that ``we still expect the housing sector and the automotive sector to remain challenges.''
Central bankers have said they expect the economy will improve in the second half of the year as the effects of the housing slowdown dissipate and businesses regain the confidence to resume investing.
``I think the economy is decent,'' General Electric Co. Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said before the company's annual shareholder meeting in Greenville, South Carolina, this week. ``I think housing is a tough spot, but the rest of the economy is pretty good.''
To contact the report on this story: Joe Richter in Washington at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 27, 2007 08:30 EDT
By Joe Richter
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew in the first quarter at the slowest pace in four years, hobbled by the slump in home construction and a bigger trade deficit.
The 1.3 percent annual growth rate was less than forecast and followed a 2.5 percent fourth-quarter pace, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. A measure of inflation watched by the Federal Reserve rose at a faster pace.
Consumer spending kept the expansion alive as the slowdown in housing extended to a sixth quarter, the longest continuous slide in a generation. A burst of inflation last quarter will prevent Federal Reserve policy makers from lowering interest rates to stimulate growth, economists said.
``The Fed was correct in identifying the elevated downside risks to economy,'' Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto, said before the report. ``But they are prepared to wait it out.''
Last quarter's growth rate was the weakest since the first three months of 2003. Growth in the 12 months ended in March slowed to 2.1 percent, the weakest year-over-year gain since the second quarter of 2003.
Before adjusting for inflation, the economy expanded at a 5.3 percent annual pace last quarter, up from 4.1 percent.
Today's report is the government's first estimate of the quarter's gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced. The figures will be revised in each of the next two months.
Economists expected a 1.8 percent gain in GDP last quarter, according to the median estimate of 83 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Growth estimates ranged from 1.2 percent to 2.7 percent.
Prices Jump
A jump in oil last quarter pushed up prices. The report's price index rose at an annual rate of 4 percent, the most since 1991, compared with 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter.
The Fed's preferred inflation measure, which is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and energy costs, rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate, up from a 1.8 percent fourth-quarter gain. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is among policy makers that have said a 1 percent to 2 percent increase is preferable.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, rose at an annual rate of 3.8 percent last quarter, compared with a 4.2 percent pace in the previous three months. Before today's report, quarterly consumer-spending gains averaged 3.7 percent the past decade.
Home construction fell at an annual rate of 17 percent last quarter, after contracting by 19.8 percent in the previous three months. The decline subtracted 1 percentage point from first- quarter growth. The last time spending on home construction dropped for six consecutive quarters was in the early 1980s.
Investment Gains
Business fixed investment, which includes spending on commercial construction as well as equipment and software, rose at a 2 percent annual rate, after falling at a 3.1 percent rate from October through December. Spending on new equipment and software increased 1.9 percent.
Economists pared GDP estimates throughout the quarter as Commerce reports showed shipments of capital equipment slumped. Commerce now also uses the Fed's industrial production report, which showed increases in production of computers and communications hardware, to supplement the durable-goods reports in estimating business spending.
Companies added to stockpiles at a $14.8 billion annual rate last quarter after a $22.4 billion annualized fourth-quarter gain. The figures subtracted 0.3 percentage point from growth.
The trade deficit widened to an annual pace of $597.8 billion from $582.6 billion in the fourth quarter. The deficit reduced GDP by 0.52 percentage point.
`Moderate' Growth
So far, there is scant evidence of a pickup in growth. The Fed's Beige Book, a compendium of regional anecdotes that will frame policy makers' discussions about the economy when they next meet on May 9, said that most district banks reported ``only modest or moderate'' economic growth since late February. Real estate ``continued to weaken,'' and ``many districts saw a decrease in homebuilding,'' the report said.
A jump in subprime-mortgage defaults and foreclosures heighten the risk that the real estate slump will linger, economists said. Signs have emerged that woes in manufacturing and housing are suppressing demand in other industries.
Norfolk Southern Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. railroad, said this week that first-quarter profit fell on fewer shipments of autos and homebuilding supplies. Norfolk Chief Executive Officer Charles ``Wick'' Moorman said in an interview that ``we still expect the housing sector and the automotive sector to remain challenges.''
Central bankers have said they expect the economy will improve in the second half of the year as the effects of the housing slowdown dissipate and businesses regain the confidence to resume investing.
``I think the economy is decent,'' General Electric Co. Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said before the company's annual shareholder meeting in Greenville, South Carolina, this week. ``I think housing is a tough spot, but the rest of the economy is pretty good.''
To contact the report on this story: Joe Richter in Washington at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 27, 2007 08:30 EDT
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