vi segnalo questo che a mia perzonalizzima opinione è importantizzimo, visto che se lo dice Bill Gross, la "voce" si sta allargando al mercato.
Considerando l'inflazione vera, le borse dovrebbero aggiustarsi per un -10% e i bond -5%
Bill Gross: Lies, Damn Lies and Government Inflation Data
Pimco's Bill Gross provides detailed analysis on what most Americans already know: The government's "official" data understates inflation.
Gross' treatise focuses on how CPI is compiled -- with hedonic adjustments and "owners' equivalent rents" -- in a way that's unique in the industrialized world. Such adjustments and a focus on "core" inflation -- or "inflation excluding inflation" as Barry Ritholtz calls it -- help explain why the Fed is far less concerned about inflation than central bankers in other parts of the world.
If the financial markets were to "readjust" to actual inflation, the stock market would lose 10% of its value and the bond market 5%, Gross says.
Gross, whose firm manages more than $800 billion in mostly fixed-income assets, fails to explain why stocks (and real estate, for that matter) will suffer more than bonds in this hypothetical "readjustment of investor mentality."
The other part of the story Gross omits is that the government has an incentive to suppress inflation, since Social Security and veterans benefits, along with government wages and other items, are pegged to CPI.
In the accompanying video, Henry and I rail about how America's political leaders continue to pander vs. showing any true leadership on the issue of energy policy and inflation generally.
But Pimco's Gross suggests Americans are getting the "leadership" we deserve: "Alternative energy discussion takes a bleacher's seat to the latest foibles of Lindsay Lohan or Britney Spears and then we wonder why gas is four bucks a gallon," he writes. "We care as much as we always have -- we just care about the wrong things."
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...Inflation-Data?tickers=PTTAX,ING,^SPX,SPY,TLT
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2008/IO+June+2008.htm