Interessante analisi sui petroliferi:
DJ Oil Demand May Have Already Peaked. Here's Which Stocks Will Win -- and Lose. -- Barrons.com
By Avi Salzman
Oil demand most likely peaked in 2019,and will be on a long downhill slide for decades into the future, BP said in an annual report released on Monday.
Covid-19, which led to a deep decline in oil and gas use, accelerated the beginning of the end. And in two out of three possible scenarios sketched out by BP (ticker: BP), demand will never recover. In the third scenario, oil demand will essentially flatten out for the next several years before declining.
"Oil and gas -- while remaining needed for decades -- will be increasingly challenged as society shifts away from its reliance on fossil fuels," the company's annual Energy Outlook says.
The projection is more evidence that even companies that depend on oil and gas production have begun to accept a severe decline in consumption in the years ahead. Investors rarely like to plow money into declining industries, so companies like BP are already shifting their business models. Just last week, BP announced that it willinvest $1.1 billion in U.S. offshore wind projects with Equinor (EQNR), another major European oil company.
BP said earlier this year that it plans to transition its business to produce net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
There's disagreement about the date of peak oil demand, but analysts generally believe it will come in the next decade or so. BP's projection is surprising mostly because the company thinks there's a strong chance that it's already come and gone. Several governments around the world have mandated shifts in energy consumption, or incentivized producers of renewable energy like solar and wind power. Carbon taxes are becoming more common, making oil production more costly for companies. Covid-19 appears to have accelerated this trend, because activities like air travel could take years to recover.
Under BP's most aggressive scenario, the consumption of liquid fuels could fall as low as 30 million barrels a day in2050 from 100 million barrels last year. Under the least aggressive projection, or "business as usual," oil demand would stay flat for about 20 years before falling to 95 million barrels per day in 2050.
In that case, "demand for liquid fuels continues to grow in India, [parts of] Asia and Africa, offset by the trend decline in consumption in developed economies," the report says.
Some analysts found BP's argument compelling, while cautioning that there are still lots of unknowns.
Edward Jones analyst Jennifer Rowland called BP's projection "a real probability."
"When I think about behavioral changes post-pandemic most of those would be negative for energy consumption, whether it's more people working remotely or how long demand for airline travel will take," she said in an interview. That said, other trends point in the other direction, including the possibility that people move to suburbs from cities and use vehicles more instead of mass transit.
She thinks the best way for investors to play the transition to lower oil and gas use is to keep their overall energy exposure relatively low while betting on the best-capitalized large-cap names. In the U.S., that would be Chevron (CVX). Overseas, she likes French giant Total (TOT), which has been able to keep its dividend while competitors have reduced their payouts. These big companies can survive the transition to renewables because of their strong balance sheets and ability to transition business models to profit off the shift, she argues. So-called integrated oil-and-gas companies with several business lines should persevere, she said.
"Energy exposure should come primarily through the integrateds," she said. "It's really the integrateds that can successfully navigate this. They not only have the balance sheets, they also have the people, the technology, the relationships around the world with governments and other companies, those are all real critical pieces that will enable them to pivot their business models over time. How is a small oil and gas producer going to successfully navigate that? That challenge becomes almost too great for the smaller oil-and-gas companies."
