Obbligazioni societarie CIT Group, SLM, GMAC e le finanziarie USA che (forse) si salveranno diventando banche

[Imark]

D'altronde, questi non sanno più in che lingua dirlo che più presto GMAC si libera di ResCap e più facile e consistente sarà l'upgrade del rating...

Moody's review of GMAC's ratings expected to conclude soon

New York, December 31, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service said that its review of GMAC Inc.'s ratings for possible upgrade is likely to conclude within the next few weeks. This follows GMAC's announcement that is has received $3.79 billion of additional capital from the U.S. Treasury. In related actions, GMAC subsidiaries Residential Capital (ResCap) and Ally Bank wrote-down sizable residential mortgage portfolios and received offsetting capital contributions from GMAC. GMAC could be upgraded multiple notches at the conclusion of the review as a result of its improved credit position. However, GMAC continues to face substantial risks, including its exposure to ResCap, which are likely to keep GMAC's ratings in the low non-investment grade range. GMAC's senior unsecured rating was upgraded to Ca and placed on review for further possible upgrade on June 10, 2009.

In regards to ResCap, the additional capital infusion from GMAC and related write-down of a substantial amount of its remaining held-for-investment loan portfolio, although positive, are insufficient to stabilize the company. Despite these write-downs, it remains uncertain whether additional deterioration will occur in this portfolio and whether ResCap can return to profitability. All ResCap ratings are C with a stable outlook (see separate ResCap press release).

GMAC said that it will receive $3.79 billion in proceeds from the issuance of $2.54 billion of trust preferred securities and $1.25 billion of mandatory convertible preferred securities (MCP) to the U.S. Treasury. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury will exchange all of its existing $5.25 billion non-convertible preferred investment into MCP and $3.0 billion of its existing MCP into GMAC common equity. As a result, the U.S Treasury will own 56.3% of GMAC's common equity.

In related actions, GMAC contributed $2.7 billion of capital, comprised of mortgage assets, debt relief and cash, to ResCap and $1.3 billion of cash to Ally Bank. ResCap's capital injection offsets $2.0 billion of pre-tax write-downs the company recorded on the reclassification of certain mortgages to held-for-sale and approximately $500 million of additional repurchase reserve expense. Ally Bank's capital injection offsets charges of $1.3 billion related to a sale of residential mortgage loans to GMAC.

Moody's review of GMAC's ratings will incorporate the strengthening of its balance sheet resulting from the additional capital and write-down of mortgage assets to better approximate realizable value. The review will also examine ResCap's profitability and cash flow prospects and GMAC's willingness to provide further support to ResCap, should it be required. Other review considerations include GMAC's prospects for improving asset quality and profitability, maintaining capital adequacy, and establishing a resilient liquidity profile as it continues its transition to a bank operating and funding model.

"The additional capital injection and actions to buttress against further ResCap losses are positive developments for GMAC's ratings," said Moody's senior analyst Mark Wasden. "However, GMAC continues to face a host of issues, including constrained capital market access, uncertain earnings prospects, auto industry weakness, business concentrations in GM and Chrysler, execution risk related to the transition to a bank operating and funding model and remaining instability at ResCap. These issues will constrain GMAC's ratings potential," said Wasden. Moody's said it anticipates concluding the ratings review within the next few weeks.

Moody's said that while support from the U.S. government has strengthened GMAC's capital and liquidity positions and business prospects, the firm will ultimately need to reduce its reliance upon government support. Uncertainty regarding the timing and success of this transition will also factor into the firm's ratings.

In its last rating action on June 10, 2009, Moody's upgraded GMAC's senior unsecured rating to Ca from C and placed its ratings on review for further possible upgrade.
The principal methodology used in rating GMAC was Analyzing the Credit Risks of Finance Companies, which can be found at OpenDNS in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating these issuers can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory.

GMAC Inc. is a global provider of auto finance, residential mortgage finance, and related products and services.

 

[Imark]

SLM pencola ai margini dell'IG... l'accesso al mercato delle cartolarizzazioni ha visto operazioni effettuate con la copertura della garanzia pubblica, altre senza... il futuro resta incerto...

SLM Corp. 'BBB-/A-3' Rating Affirmed, Removed From CreditWatch; Outlook Negative

• The likelihood that the U.S. Senate will vote on student lending
  legislation in the near term has become increasingly uncertain.
• We have affirmed our ratings on U.S. student lender SLM Corp. and removed
  them from CreditWatch.
• We believe it would be difficult for any proposed changes to take full
  effect for the 2010-2011 school year.

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 26, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
affirmed its ratings, including the 'BBB-/A-3' counterparty credit rating, on
SLM Corp. The ratings were removed from CreditWatch Negative, where they were
placed July 23, 2009. The outlook is negative.
"The affirmation comes amid growing ambiguity as to the likelihood that
legislation affecting student lenders will be passed in the short term. The
political focus in Washington remains on other issues. At this point we
believe that it would be difficult to make legislative changes that would go
into full effect for the 2010-2011 school year given the administrative
challenges of shifting all schools to the Direct Lending Program in time,"
said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Adom Rosengarten. "Therefore we believe
SLM Corp. could be involved in some manner in the origination of federal
student loans for at least another year, limiting the immediate impact that
legislative changes would have on the company."
We also recognize the positive steps that SLM Corp. has taken to improve
its funding profile. The company has replaced its 2008 FFELP asset-backed
commercial paper facility with a new $10 billion multiyear facility. In
addition to the significantly lower cost of this new facility, SLM has reduced
refinance risk by extending the maturity on this facility to three years.
SLM has also signed an agreement with the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des
Moines allowing for borrowings backed by FFELP loan collateral. All new
private education loans are originated and held in Sallie Mae Bank, funded
primarily by brokered deposits until they can be term funded through the
securitization markets. Although brokered deposits have some wholesale
characteristics to them, we view this as higher-quality funding than warehouse
borrowings.
Finally, SLM has had limited but increasing availability to
securitization markets, both through Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility
(TALF)-eligible and non-TALF deals. In 2009, SLM completed approximately $6.0
billion in non-TALF securitizations for FFELP consolidation loans, and $1.5
billion in non-TALF securitizations for private education loans. The company
also completed almost $6.0 billion in TALF-eligible securitizations for
private education loans.
The negative outlook reflects the ongoing uncertainty related to the
future of SLM's business model. "We would assess the long-term impact on SLM
of legislation that eliminates SLM's ability to originate federal student
loans if such legislation were passed. This would include weighing the greater
focus the company would have on private education loans and taking into
account the credit risks and funding risks of this business against the
mitigating factors of SLM's fee-based businesses, including the growing levels
of servicing for the government that SLM will obtain through the U.S. Dept. of
Education servicing contract," Mr Rosengarten added.

 

[ODOC]

obligazioni GMAC scadenza 2010-2011

Sono quasi del parere di investire 10k in una di queste due obligazioni GMA :
xs0177329603 5,75 scadenza 27/09/10
xs0187751150 5,375 scadenza 06/06/2011 acquisto a 99,69.
L'interesse mi sembra buono. Viste le recenti vicissitudini della societa' pensate che i tempi siano cambiate e si possa andare sl sicuro ?????
a favore penso che giochi molto la scadenza ravvicinata.
Ringrazio chi vorra darmi un parere in merito con motovazioni.

 

[Imark]

Sono quasi del parere di investire 10k in una di queste due obligazioni GMAC :
xs0177329603 5,75 scadenza 27/09/10
xs0187751150 5,375 scadenza 06/06/2011 acquisto a 99,69.
L'interesse mi sembra buono. Viste le recenti vicissitudini della societa' pensate che i tempi siano cambiate e si possa andare sl sicuro ?????
a favore penso che giochi molto la scadenza ravvicinata.
Ringrazio chi vorra darmi un parere in merito con motovazioni.

Ciao, GMAC è in questa situazione: ha avuto 3 interventi di salvataggio del governo USA, l'ultimo dei quali effettuato a dicembre scorso.

Il fatto che si sia intervenuti 3 volte a salvarla rende probabile anche un eventuale quarto salvataggio in futuro, anche se qualche voce di dissenso comincia a levarsi, sebbene le lagnanze siano dovute più all'avvenuto salvataggio, in seno a GMAC, anche di ResCap (l'unità che si occupava di erogazione di mutui immobiliari ed i cui conti sono particolarmente disastrati) che non all'esigenza di tenere in piedi GMAC stessa.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/11/business/11tarp.html

Per cui direi che con cautela e facendo attenzione a diversificare bene il proprio portafoglio investimenti, qualcosa si può prendere.

Il rischio è che ci sia bisogno di altri soldi per GMAC o durante la campagna elettorale USA (ci sono le elezioni di mid-term quest'autunno) oppure subito dopo, con un Congresso a maggioranza repubblicana ed una forte corrente contraria alla spesa pubblica per salvataggi che sta emergendo in seno a quel partito e che è molto popolare nel paese.

Credo tuttavia che il problema riguarderebbe più ResCap che GMAC.

 

[ODOC]

Ciao, GMAC è in questa situazione: ha avuto 3 interventi di salvataggio del governo USA, l'ultimo dei quali effettuato a dicembre scorso.

Il fatto che si sia intervenuti 3 volte a salvarla rende probabile anche un eventuale quarto salvataggio in futuro, anche se qualche voce di dissenso comincia a levarsi, sebbene le lagnanze siano dovute più all'avvenuto salvataggio, in seno a GMAC, anche di ResCap (l'unità che si occupava di erogazione di mutui immobiliari ed i cui conti sono particolarmente disastrati) che non all'esigenza di tenere in piedi GMAC stessa.

TARP Oversight Panel Finds Fault With GMAC Bailouts - NYTimes.com

Per cui direi che con cautela e facendo attenzione a diversificare bene il proprio portafoglio investimenti, qualcosa si può prendere.

Il rischio è che ci sia bisogno di altri soldi per GMAC o durante la campagna elettorale USA (ci sono le elezioni di mid-term quest'autunno) oppure subito dopo, con un Congresso a maggioranza repubblicana ed una forte corrente contraria alla spesa pubblica per salvataggi che sta emergendo in seno a quel partito e che è molto popolare nel paese.

Credo tuttavia che il problema riguarderebbe più ResCap che GMAC.

Ti ringrazio IMARK per le tue precisazioni sempre appropriate e competenti.

 

[nik.sala]

Ciao, GMAC è in questa situazione: ha avuto 3 interventi di salvataggio del governo USA, l'ultimo dei quali effettuato a dicembre scorso.

Il fatto che si sia intervenuti 3 volte a salvarla rende probabile anche un eventuale quarto salvataggio in futuro, anche se qualche voce di dissenso comincia a levarsi, sebbene le lagnanze siano dovute più all'avvenuto salvataggio, in seno a GMAC, anche di ResCap (l'unità che si occupava di erogazione di mutui immobiliari ed i cui conti sono particolarmente disastrati) che non all'esigenza di tenere in piedi GMAC stessa.

TARP Oversight Panel Finds Fault With GMAC Bailouts - NYTimes.com

Per cui direi che con cautela e facendo attenzione a diversificare bene il proprio portafoglio investimenti, qualcosa si può prendere.

Il rischio è che ci sia bisogno di altri soldi per GMAC o durante la campagna elettorale USA (ci sono le elezioni di mid-term quest'autunno) oppure subito dopo, con un Congresso a maggioranza repubblicana ed una forte corrente contraria alla spesa pubblica per salvataggi che sta emergendo in seno a quel partito e che è molto popolare nel paese.

Credo tuttavia che il problema riguarderebbe più ResCap che GMAC.

...quindi mark i bond rescap li eviteresti ???
...pur essendo un invesitmento oltremodo speculativo, col senno di poi, a prenderli sei mesi fa...io non penso che lascino andare neanche rescap, arrivati a questo punto...

 

[Imark]

...quindi mark i bond rescap li eviteresti ???
...pur essendo un invesitmento oltremodo speculativo, col senno di poi, a prenderli sei mesi fa...io non penso che lascino andare neanche rescap, arrivati a questo punto...

Ciao Nick, è come giocare a testa o croce con una società sostanzialemnte fallita. Credo che se i democratici USA dovessero prendere una botta alle elezioni di mid-term in autunno, all'insegna del motto "basta spendere i soldi del contribuente", poi potrebbe succedere che almeno la roba di più scadente qualità sia lasciata andare...

Cmq, vale il solito discorso: è una società zombie ... certo, se poi arriva lo zio Sam, mette mano al portafogli e fa "alzati e cammina", quella continua ad andare avanti ...

 

[Imark]

CIT riparte da B3... i problemi restano tutti sul tappeto, ma la bancarotta "prepackaged" dell'autunno dello scorso anno ha guadagnato tempo fino al 2012 per inventarsi qualcosa...

Moody's assigns a B3 rating to CIT Group Inc.

New York, May 21, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service assigned a B3 corporate family rating to CIT Group Inc. Concurrently, Moody's assigned ratings of B1, B3, and Caa1 to CIT's first lien secured debt facilities, second lien secured notes, and senior unsecured notes, respectively. The outlook for the ratings is stable.

The B3 corporate family rating incorporates the improvements to CIT's debt maturity profile and capital position that resulted from its fourth quarter 2009 pre-packaged bankruptcy reorganization. CIT recorded a significant gain in connection with the cancelation of indebtedness, boosting the company's capital levels and providing cushion for downside operating risks as the firm focuses on re-building its franchise. CIT has no meaningful scheduled debt maturities until January 2012, temporarily easing the burden on its developing but limited liquidity resources. In Moody's view, CIT's near-term default risk is relatively low as a consequence of its improved capital and liquidity positions.

The rating also recognizes the significant execution risks associated with CIT's long-term operating and funding strategies. CIT emerged from bankruptcy intending to build operating momentum on the basis of its historic competitive strengths in trade finance, transportation finance, vendor finance, and corporate finance. However, the continuing effects of previous customer attrition and liquidity constraints on origination volumes, margin compression from high funding costs, and asset quality weakness are challenges to the firm's revitalization efforts. CIT made progress repairing and expanding customer relationships and volumes in the first quarter of 2010.

However, Moody's expects competitive conditions for both origination volumes and personnel will increase in the sectors traditionally served by CIT, as the financial services industry recovers and banks seek new opportunities for growth. In this regard, a particular CIT challenge involves overcoming the extra caution expressed by potential customers considering doing business with CIT, given CIT's uneven performance record and the availability of financing alternatives.

"CIT's brand equity has been bruised by the firm's difficulties over the past several quarters; it will take time for CIT to regain the confidence of customers, investors, and regulators," said Moody's senior analyst Mark Wasden.

Moody's believes that for CIT to remain a viable independent company, it must further its strategy of transitioning to a bank-centric operating and funding model. A significant obstacle to CIT's plans is a Cease & Desist order issued by the FDIC that limits the ability of CIT Bank to increase brokered deposits. Opportunities for CIT to fully take advantage of CIT Bank as a funding platform will be limited if the order is not lifted. It is uncertain when or under what conditions the FDIC will consider lifting the Cease & Desist order. A decision by the FDIC to remove the Cease & Desist order could have positive implications for CIT's ratings.

However, a continuing additional concern for Moody's is that CIT bank -- in its current form as a single-branch entity offering primarily brokered deposits -- may prove to be of insufficient stature to be the basis for a long-term, resilient funding profile for CIT's bank-centric finance businesses; CIT's longer-term efforts to expand the strength and capacity of its bank are an element of its execution risk.

A further risk relates to CIT's reliance upon confidence-sensitive wholesale financing sources to procure funding not provided through CIT Bank. CIT has had some success this year reestablishing certain secured funding facilities that were terminated in 2009, but its ability to increase the breadth and stability of its funding from wholesale sources is uncertain given market conditions and the company's credit profile.

CIT's strong cash balances and cash flows from asset sales and net portfolio runoff are expected to adequately provide for near-term liquidity needs. Moody's also expects that CIT will make progress repaying high cost debt during 2010, with consequential benefits to the company's operating margins and financial flexibility. However, CIT's liquidity profile will likely be characterized by constrained market access, limited liquidity alternatives, and relatively high funding costs for the foreseeable future, though low debt-repayment requirements mitigate these constraints near-term.

An important aspect of CIT's transformation centers on its efforts to build critical risk management capability to a satisfactory level. Under a Written Agreement with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CIT is required to, among other things, implement plans for strengthening risk management and oversight policies, capital and liquidity planning functions, and credit risk assessment and loss reserve methodologies. Moody's expects that CIT will continue to make progress on these high priority initiatives.

"We believe the necessary improvements CIT is making to its risk management infrastructure are beneficial to its credit profile, but there remain execution risks involving systems, processes, and people, " said Moody's Wasden.

Considering CIT's transition risks, Moody's believes that CIT's independence is not assured. Realistic alternate paths for CIT, such as a sale (in whole or in part) or select asset and business sales combined with portfolio servicing to liquidation, involve other potential operating and funding uncertainties that constrain the company's rating.

CIT's rating also considers the firm's earnings and profitability prospects. Moody's anticipates that accretion of fresh-start accounting (FSA) adjustments over the next few years will be a meaningful component of CIT's reported profits and will therefore also benefit the firm's reported capital levels. However, we expect CIT's pretax, pre-FSA earnings to be weak over the next several quarters, due to lower than historical volumes, high interest expense, and the need to provision for losses in a still difficult economic environment.

An important measure of CIT's forward progress will be its asset quality performance, compared both to its historical trends as well as to expectations embedded in its FSA adjustments. A demonstration by CIT that it can sustainably produce high quality acceptable returns, in tandem with improved access to lower-cost funding, could lead to higher ratings.

The stable rating outlook is based upon Moody's expectation that CIT will continue its accelerated repayment of high cost first lien debt during 2010, thus aiding operating margins and improving financial flexibility. The stable outlook also reflects Moody's view that the demands on CIT's cash resources are manageable over the outlook horizon (12-18 months).

This view is balanced by continuing uncertainties associated with CIT's longer-term funding model, franchise composition and positioning, and asset quality and earnings performance.

The B1 rating assigned to CIT's first lien loans is based upon strong asset coverage and loan terms, including a coverage covenant and cash sweep provisions, that support Moody's expectation that creditors would experience negligible loss severity in a default scenario.

The B3 rating assigned to CIT's second lien notes is based upon their meaningful asset protections, though inferior to the first lien facilities, and the limited proportion of debt that is junior to the second lien notes. CIT's unsecured debt rating of Caa1 reflects the structural subordination of these notes to CIT's secured debt and their lengthy average maturity.

...

CIT Group, Inc. is a commercial finance company located in New York City and Livingston, New Jersey.