Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti Dubai, le entità "government-related" ed il supporto che potrebbe non arrivare...

Update in attesa che il nostro carissimo i98Mark ci torni a fare compagnia :up:

Dubai, credit default swap allargano ancora a 650 pb

venerdì 12 febbraio 2010 17:11

LONDRA, 12 febbraio (Reuters) - Continua a salire il costo dell'assicurazione dal rischio insolvenza sul debito sovrano del Dubai.
Ifr riferisce di un massimo di 650 centesimi per i 'credit default swap' a cinque anni, in rialzo di 70 punti base dopo aver superato quota 600 per la prima volta da novembre.
A monte del movimento la notizia riportata dal quotidiano 'Al-ittihad', secondo cui Dubai World avrebbe chiesto o starebbe per chiedere un congelamento di sei mesi di rimborsi ai creditori.
Sui mercati, si legge su Ifr, circolano anche voci di possibile amministrazione controllata per Nakheel, controllata di Dubai World.
La nuova moratoria sul debito, scrive il quotidiano locale, scatterebbe a metà febbraio e andrebbe a coprire un rimborso di 980 milioni di un prestito a tasso variabile emesso da Nakheel e in scadenza a maggio.
Intanto l'obbligazione 2014 targata Dubai Department of Finance emessa a novembre e denominata 'Islamic bond' evidenzia nel tardo pomeriggio un calo di due punti pieni fino a un minimo record di 86,5, con un rendimento che balza un area 10% secondo i dati Reuters.
Dubai scosse i mercati in novembre quando chiese una moratoria multimiliardaria sul debito di alcune controllate della conglomerata pubblica Dubai World.
"Di fatto è la continuazione della saga. Non c'è ancora un piano di ristrutturazione e la gente ricomincia a preoccuparsi", afferma lo strategist di Bnp Paribas Elisabeth Gruie.
Secondo Gruie, il fatto che questa settimana siano state posticipate alcune emissioni di corporate bond ha contribuito a peggiorare l'umore del mercato su Dubai, vista ormai come una delle aree che risentono più velocemente di un calo della fiducia globale.
 
Dubai bagna il naso alle banche, proponendo su 22 mld $ di debito di dare il 60% fra sette anni e senza pagare cedolare nel mentre, ma con garanzia governativa, oppure il 100% fra sette anni senza garanzia e con il 40% costituito da asset di Nakheel (ossia i progetti tipo The Palm ed altri analoghi, ai quali così attribuito un valore implicito piuttosto modesto)

Dal WSJ online... il Dubai Holding 2014 va a riallinearsi per ora sui 62, ma potrebbe in caso si chiudesse realmente su questi valori di swap sul debito, scenderebbe ancora...

Dubai Drives Hard Bargain for Banks

For Dubai World's creditors, indignity piles upon indignity. News that the troubled state-controlled conglomerate plans to repay its lenders a meager 60 cents for every U.S. dollar they are owed is yet another blow for lenders who until four months ago assumed Dubai World's debts came with an implicit sovereign guarantee.

Dubai World is seeking to reschedule $22 billion of debt. But while the banks may be furious, they have such a weak negotiating hand that they may have to settle for little more than what's on the table. True, the offer doesn't look too bad at first glance. But the banks will only receive payment after seven years and will get no interim coupon—a much bigger 'haircut' than they had expected.

An alternative offer—that creditors receive payment in full after seven years but receive no government guarantee and accept 40% in the form of assets in Dubai World's most troubled business unit Nakheel—is no alternative at all, given the near-impossibility of valuing Nakheel's island developments.

But creditors, among them HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Chartered, are short of options. A tribunal set up to handle claims against Dubai World is untried and many creditors lack confidence in the existing legal framework to arbitrate or enforce a settlement, let alone, in the worst case scenario, seize the company's assets.

Meanwhile appeals to Dubai not to jeopardize its long-term reputation with investors—echoed last week by U.K. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson—are likely to fall on deaf ears. Abu Dhabi, which has already pumped $20 billion indirectly into Dubai, is now calling the shots. And now Dubai has the support of the world's fifth-largest holder of oil reserves and the Middle East's largest sovereign wealth fund, it may be less concerned over its standing with international banks than maintaining the support of its neighbor.

Of course, the banks could take the nuclear option and reject a deal, forcing Dubai to either default, or once again go cap in hand to their oil-rich cousins in Abu Dhabi for more support, but this comes will a multitude of risks. Many creditors have a substantial commercial presence in the United Arab Emirates. Dubai's rulers could make operating in the emirate tough for any bank that tries to play hard ball. The banks may be seething, but this is one indignity they may choose to suffer in silence.
 
Ieri intanto il governo UK aveva rammentato a Dubai che "L'incertezza e la mancanza di accordi circa la ristrutturazione del debito non possono durare ancora a lungo".



  • FEBRUARY 14, 2010, 7:22 A.M. ET
2ndUPDATE: UK's Mandelson: Dubai Running Out Of Time On Debts

By Stefania Bianchi
Of ZAWYA DOW JONES

DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones)--U.K. business secretary Peter Mandelson Sunday urged Dubai to reach an agreement to settle its debts, or risk its reputation with investors as details of a potential deal between creditors and troubled conglomerate Dubai World emerged.

"Time is running out," Mandelson told delegates at a lunch hosted for British business in the emirate. "The current uncertainties and lack of agreement can't go on for much longer. As we approach decisions, Dubai has to be as open as possible on talks with banks and construction companies."

British companies are amongst the biggest international creditors to Dubai, with state-controlled Royal Bank Of Scotland Group PLC (RBS.LN) and Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY.LN) exposed to Dubai World.

The emirate risks be bracketed with an emerging group of heavily indebted sovereign borrowers who may default including Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, unless it addresses its vast debt that's estimated to exceed $80 billion.

"Dubai has to be conscious of the fact that depending on how it resolves the current problems will mean a great deal for how it secures investment in the future.

Dubai has to tread carefully, openly and not for too long. It has to reach an agreement that's demonstrably fair," Mandelson said.

Earlier Sunday Zawya Dow Jones reported that Dubai World may offer creditors 60% of the money they're owed backed by the sheikdom's government as part of a deal to reschedule $22 billion of debt. The emirate also owes U.K. companies hundreds of millions of dollars for unpaid fees.

British construction and engineering firms at one point last year were chasing about GBP400 million in unpaid fees from companies in the United Arab Emirates, mostly in Dubai, U.K. trade body the Association for Consultancy and Engineering.

Mandelson's comments, the strongest so far by a U.K. political figure regarding Dubai's financial problems received a mixed reception from British business executives attending the lunch in the swank Emirates Towers hotel.

"He was trying to sit on the fence and tiptoe around the issue," said James Hume, partner at Omega Group Services. "There's nothing the U.K. can preach to Dubai."

The U.K. economy is struggling itself and grew for the first time in 18 months in the fourth quarter, albeit by an anemic 0.1%. Data last Thursday showed U.K. home repossessions fell sharply in the fourth quarter, although they hit a 14-year high in 2009.
 
Effetto domino sui debiti di Dubai
18 febbraio 2010

A Dubai dopo il real estate tremano anche le utility. Dewa, la Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, è sotto pressione degli investitori per alcuni problemi con i prodotti derivati. La società infatti deve fare fronte al rimborso anticipato di una cartolarizzazione da 2 miliardi di dollari. Lo strumento prevedeva originariamente i rimborsi per il 2036, ma dopo che Moody's ha declassato il rating della società è scattata una clausola del contratto che può anticiparne la scadenza. Il Ceo della società Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer ha dichiarato che Dewa si aspetta buoni risultati per il bilancio 2009 e conta così di riconquistare la fiducia e rimandare la scadenza del debito. Più fredda invece Mood'y che ha consigliato alla società di rinegoziare il debito, mentre ha sottolineato che non tutti gli strumenti derivati di Dewa sono garantiti dal governo dell'Emirato. (G.Ve)
 
Continuano a non dare indicazioni precise, e quella poche che vengono fuori sono del tipo che non impressiona positivamente i mercati. Pare ad esempio che Dubai sia contraria alla cessione di asset nell'ambito della ristrutturazione del debito. No fire sales, dicono...


  • FEBRUARY 18, 2010, 8:27 A.M. ET
Dubai World Debt Plan On Schedule; No Fire Sales


By CHIP CUMMINS

DUBAI—Dubai World is on schedule to present formal debt-restructuring proposals to lenders by March or April, and won't consider selling assets at distressed prices, according to people familiar with the situation.

While asset-shedding is likely to be part of any restructuring plan, "it won't be a fire sale," according to one government official.

The government official and another person familiar with the talks said Wednesday that despite a fresh bout of investor worry over Dubai debt, negotiations among the company, the government, advisors and lenders are moving ahead according to a timeline set out by Dubai at the beginning of the restructuring process, which began late last year.

Dubai World and the government are waiting for a business plan and asset valuations from company executives and their advisors before putting any formal debt-restructuring plan before lenders, these people said.

Earlier this week, investors pummeled Dubai shares and bid up the price of insuring against a default of the city-state. The carnage came amid a lack of clarity on the status of the talks, a report of draft proposals that were seen as unfavorable to lenders and international worry triggered by Greece's debt woes.

On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund called for a "speedy, orderly, cooperative, and predictable approach to debt restructuring" at Dubai World, as part of a regularly scheduled assessment of the United Arab Emirate's broader economy.

Amid recent investor worry, Dubai appears to be making a fresh push to reassure investors. As evidence of progress, people familiar with the situation said Wednesday that Dubai may avoid having to conclude a formal debt-standstill agreement with its lenders.

In late November, Dubai shocked investors by saying it would seek to delay debt payments owed by Dubai World, its flagship corporation. Then in December, Dubai said neighboring emirate Abu Dhabi would provide $10 billion in assistance, following a previous $10 billion federal bailout in February 2009. (Dubai is one of seven emirates that make up the U.A.E., of which oil-rich Abu Dhabi is the capital.)

At the time, Dubai said it would use some of the proceeds to pay off a bond maturing in December and would attempt to negotiate a formal standstill pact with lenders to Dubai World, as it discussed restructuring about $22 billion in remaining debt at several subsidiaries. One person familiar with the situation said that since the government of Dubai is now paying interest and other debt-servicing costs, along with advisory fees for both sides, "the need for a piece of paper" spelling out a formal standstill during the talks has diminished.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, HSBC Holdings PLC and Standard Chartered PLC are among banks with the largest exposures to Dubai World.

Another person briefed on the matter said that as recently as a week ago, some creditors were anticipating a formal standstill agreement. Creditors also are watching how Dubai World handles some bilateral obligations that come due in the next month or two, this person said. But they take some comfort in the fact that Abu Dhabi stepped in once before with funding.

Dubai's government, using money it has received from the federal government and Abu Dhabi, has funded Dubai World and its subsidiaries to the tune of $6 billion so far, including debt payments, interest expenses and contractor obligations.

"The government hasn't been shy about putting in money," said the government official.

Zawya Dow Jones earlier this week reported that two restructuring proposals were being considered, including one that would pay out just 60 cents on the dollar. The government official on Wednesday said there was no such plan being considered.
 
Ma adesso in blico c'e' il Kuwait...

Debt alarm sounds in Kuwait (Dal FT)

Most of Kuwait's multibillion- dollar investment company industry could be wiped out by debt repayments on the finance houses' leveraged investments made before the recession, senior international and local bankers have warned.
Spurred by cheap credit, abundant liquidity and few other opportunities in the government-dominated economy, Kuwaitis have set up scores of investment houses to bet on international and regional real estate, private equity and stocks. At its peak, the industry had assets of more than $50bn.
However, much of the spree was financed by short-term loans, and the financial crisis hit the local investment houses like a tsunami, said one analyst.
Bankers say the investment company woes are largely contained in Kuwait and should not spread, but they could lead to distressed sales of overseas assets and are weighing on the exposed local banking sector.
Two of the largest investment companies defaulted on international loans last year. No other finance house has publicly collapsed but bankers and analysts say almost all are struggling to meet debt repayments in the face of crippling losses - some of them on investments in Dubai, the troubled Gulf emirate. There are 100 investment houses in Kuwait but "you will not see half of them still operating in 2011", said Jasem Al-Sadoun, chairman of Alshall Investment. "They were created for a very different market than what we will see in the future."
Many investment companies are in effect insolvent but are allowed to totter on by local banks reluctant to push them into bankruptcy - preferring to reschedule or renegotiate loans to avoid writedowns, say international bankers.
While global banks such as HSBC, Credit Suisse and UBS are helping to restructure some houses, consolidation is not on the cards as most investors are unwilling to sell out to "rival" merchant families or companies.
"They're now just waiting for markets to recover, but they won't," said Majdi Gharzeddeene, head of research at Kamco, the asset management arm of Kipco, an investment company controlled by the Kuwaiti royal family.
Fears about many investment houses have shaved about KD8bn (£17.6bn) off the market capitalisation of listed investment companies, or about 70 per cent from the market peak, according to Kamco.
The industry's woes are having knock-on effects on Kuwaiti banks, which are reluctant to lend while they are facing delayed payments or losses on loans to investment companies.
Kuwait's economy is dominated by the government, which does not need financing, so bank lending has been primarily to consumers, real estate, construction and investment companies, according to Moody's, which has a negative outlook for the country's bank sector
 

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