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Egypt’s Distressed Debt Lures Buyers as IMF Eases Default Fears
ByNetty Idayu Ismail+Follow
3-4 minutes
Investors have started rummaging through Egypt’s beaten-down debt for bargains amid optimism that a loan from the International Monetary Fund may help the north African nation avoid default.
Egypt’s dollar bonds have gained 5% this week, among the top three emerging-market performers, according to Bloomberg indexes. Credit-default swaps on its debt remain above 1,000 basis points -- a level typically considered distressed.
The prospect of IMF
aid, along with a financial boost from oil-rich allies in the Persian Gulf, has eased concerns of a debt crisis as Egypt grapples with the fallout from Russia’s war with Ukraine. The country is symbolic of the malaise gripping poorer nations amid surging inflation and borrowing costs along with slowing global growth.
“A lot of these risks are in the price,” said Mohieddine Kronfol, the Dubai-based chief investment officer for Middle Eastern and North African fixed income at Franklin Templeton. “Egypt can be in a better place in 12 to 18 months.”
Franklin Templeton holds Egypt’s longer-maturity dollar bonds, some of which were quoted below 55 cents on the dollar on Wednesday.
Egypt, a major food importer, turned to international lenders for support after struggling with the impact of spiking commodity prices this year. The country, which previously bought most of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, has also seen tourism revenues dry up as fewer Russian visitors arrive.
While the current valuations of Egypt’s Eurobonds are attractive, there’s a risk that the size of an IMF deal might disappoint, according to Columbia Threadneedle Investments. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. have estimated that Egypt may need to secure $15 billion, although Finance Minister Mohamed Maait has said it’s seeking a smaller amount.
“They can muddle through with a smaller IMF program size,” said Gordon G. Bowers, a London-based analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “But it will be a struggle to build FX reserves and decisively take a potential restructuring off the table over the medium-to-long term.”
Egypt agreed to a three-year IMF program in late 2016 that involved a currency devaluation, sweeping reforms and a $12 billion loan. Those moves helped rekindle investor interest in the economy battered by the 2011 uprising that ousted long-time President Hosni Mubarak and its aftermath.
“Another IMF deal will certainly give renewed impetus to the reform agenda, which is essential for restoring investor confidence and opening the floodgates for loans from other creditors,” said Callee Davis, an economist at Oxford Economics Africa. “It will also give the external position a much-needed boost, but it will not plug Egypt’s huge external financing shortfall, which is estimated at around $40 billion this year.”