Egitto 6.875% 30.04.2040 ISIN XS0505478684

Dico la mia sull'Egitto , da non possessore di bond , ma li seguo dall'inizio della crisi ucraina.
172 miliardi sono tanti, indubbiamente.
L'Egitto sappiamo come e da che regime è governato e non mi dilungo.
Però:
L'Egitto è più che strategico, è cruciale per l'area e gli equilibri dell'area . Ha dal 79 un trattato di pace con Israele, era l'unico stato arabo ad averne riconosciuto lo status fino a poco tempo fa. Con Israele ha più che buoni rapporti e molto pragmatici. . Dopo la fine disastrosa dell'esperimento islamico con Morsi (qualcuno l'ha più sentito nominare negli ultimi anni?) dubito che le potenze influenti storicamente nella zona , dagli usa a israele agli inglesi ,alla Russia e ora anche alla Cina ( per enormi interessi economici/commerciali) lascerebbero alla deriva o a un caos libico un paese di questo genere.
L'Egitto, da tenere sempre ben presente , controlla il canale di Suez, da cui incassa royalties sicure da un lato e dall'altro è fondamentale per le rotte mercantili ed energetiche mondiali.
Senza essere prolisso, a mio modo di vedere bastano queste considerazioni per rendere difficile, o meno probabile, un default con conseguente destabilizzazione di uno stato di questa importanza strategica con oltre 100 milioni di popolazione .
Poi chiaro che non stiamo parlando della Svizzera...
Il mio stesso pensiero!
Concordo al 100%.
 
L'egitto aderisce fermamente alla politica della Cina unica e sostiene fermamente la posizione della Cina su Hong Kong, Xinjiang e altre questioni riguardanti gli interessi fondamentali della Cina e si oppone fermamente all'interferenza di qualsiasi forza negli affari interni della Cina.
President Xi Jinping Meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi

la cina si prende il medio oriente Full honours for China’s Xi Jinping as US’ star fades in Middle East
 
Africa-Usa: il presidente egiziano chiede iniziativa internazionale per alleggerire peso debito
Il Cairo, 16 dic 14:18 - (Agenzia Nova) - Il presidente dell’Egitto, Abdel Fattah al Sisi, ha chiesto l’avvio di un’iniziativa internazionale volta a istituire meccanismi per alleggerire il peso dei debiti attraverso la remissione, lo scambio con investimenti o il facile rimborso. Al Sisi ha presentato la sua proposta durante la sessione sul miglioramento della sicurezza alimentare e sul rafforzamento dei sistemi alimentari al vertice dei leader Stati Uniti-Africa a Washington. Durante il suo intervento, il presidente egiziano ha invitato le istituzioni finanziarie internazionali a facilitare le condizioni di prestito per adattarsi alla natura delle economie africane. Secondo Al Sisi, "esiste uno stretto legame tra sicurezza alimentare e sicurezza idrica", chiedendo "la formulazione di quadri giuridici per impostare il percorso della cooperazione tra Paesi che condividono le risorse idriche". (segue) (Cae) © Agenzia Nova - Riproduzione riservata
 

 
Lo attendevo da un po...
Egypt CDS Update by jbchevrel, December 19, 2022
Only a member of CDX EM since series s37, Egypt [B2/B/B+] has been trading in a wide 500-1,600bp or 16-43% range, year to date. Egypt is one of Arab World’s most indebted nations with international debt $39B, long term [avg 12y] in $/€. Although not deliverable into CDS, Egypt also has chunky local-ccy debt $108B, short term [avg 2.5y]. The past positive GDP path is in prolonged recession, as inflation decimated activity. Egypt had managed to build up reserves [$41B] thanks to tighter trade deficit, especially since 2018 discovery of gas fields. In 2016, Egypt spent -$3b to import gas. In 2018, Egypt discovered fields. In 2020, Egypt exported +$0.7b gas. In 2021, Egypt exported +$3.9b gas. But high decline rates at gas fields and rising domestic demand, coupled with problematic fields [2021 outages in Zohr and Raven] make gas insufficient. Deficit was -$33B in 2021, as imports [cereals] have grown faster than exports. Demographics weigh [pop 50m -> 102m in 30y] coupled with limited arable land making Egypt #1 wheat importer [80% from Rus/Ukr] with bread program serving 70m. Pre-war, Egypt has been spending -$3B/yr for wheat imports alone. Retrospectively, one could argue that Egypt CDS “under-estimated” the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war, because Egypt CDS was still inside 550bp, weeks into the war. Who knew. After briefly trading at 1,600bp [43% upf], Egypt traded in 25-30% upfront, this autumn. On Dec 5, supply minister said there were enough wheat stocks for 5.3 months. On Dec 13, US CPI miss took Egypt 5-year CDS below 24% upfront. On Dec 14, the no-surprise Fed built a floor to synthetic spreads, and Egypt traded above 25% upfront in Dec 15 morning. On Dec 15, we got hit by positive headlines in appearance, *EGYPT DISCOVERS NEW GAS FIELD IN MEDITERRANEAN: ARABIYA. The latter failed to pause the widening, driven by macro forces, and Egypt closes the day just below 28% upfront.

O io interpreto male, o queste grandi riserve non ci sono.

Infatti da grande eventuale produttore di gas oil e, altro, questi importano tutto.
Gas, oil, grano e altro...
 
www.bloomberg.com Egypt Hikes Interest Rates Again as Pressure Builds on Pound

ByMirette Magdy and Tarek El-Tablawy+Follow

3-4 minutes


Egypt hiked interest rates by 300 basis points, the most since 2016, seeking to tackle surging inflation amid expectations of a further devaluation of the pound.
The Monetary Policy Committee raised the deposit rate to 16.25% and the lending rate to 17.25%, it said Thursday in a statement. Although the majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey had predicted an increase, none foresaw the magnitude.

The jumbo hike comes as Egypt faces its worst foreign-exchange crunch in half a decade and the fastest acceleration in inflation in almost five years. Authorities in the Middle East’s most populous country have devalued the local currency twice in 2022, most recently at the end of October, enacting sharp rate rises in both instances.
Monetary Tightening | Egypt central bank enacts biggest rate hike since 2016 on inflation worries

Hit hard by the economic shockwaves of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Egypt has sought crucial aid from allies in the Gulf and turned to the International Monetary Fund to help restore confidence in local assets. The IMF last week approved a $3 billion loan for Egypt, a deal that’s expected to unlock additional financing of about $14 billion from international and regional partners.

A worsening outlook for consumer prices has added urgency. Consumer price rises are already approaching an annual 19% and will likely peak well past 20% next year.
The central bank set a new inflation target of an average of 7%, plus or minus 2 percentage points by the fourth quarter of 2024. The goal for the fourth quarter of 2026 is 5%, plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Much now hinges on the trajectory of the pound. Although authorities announced a shift to a more flexible exchange rate in late October, the currency has only moved in small increments since then. The regulator last hiked interest rates by 300 basis points in November 2016, around the same time it carried out another dramatic devaluation.
In a separate statement Thursday, the central bank warned Egyptian lenders to be vigilant about the potential misuse of local debit and credit cards to secure foreign currency abroad. Following the imposition of new, lower overseas withdrawal limits by some banks, it pointed to the severity of Egypt’s currency crunch.

Another devaluation likely depends on the central bank’s ability to build enough of a liquidity buffer to clear the backlog of requests for hard currency and ensure a stable supply of foreign exchange, according to Farouk Soussa, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London.
— With assistance by Harumi Ichikura, Abdel Latif Wahba and Salma El Wardany
(Updates with new inflation targets in sixth paragraph.)
Egypt hiked interest rates by 300 basis points, the most since 2016, seeking to tackle surging inflation amid expectations of a further devaluation of the pound.
The Monetary Policy Committee raised the deposit rate to 16.25% and the lending rate to 17.25%, it said Thursday in a statement. Although the majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey had predicted an increase, none foresaw the magnitude.
 

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