Non riesco a tradurre ma mi sembra negativo
Ultimamente ci sono pochi scambi, e questo eserciterebbe pressione sulla sterlina. La situazione potrebbe ripercuotersi sul debito egiziano...
www.bloomberg.com
Gulf States Play Hardball Over Sending Billions to Rescue Egypt
ByMirette Magdy and Sylvia Westall+Follow
6-8 minutes
Sign up for our Middle East newsletter and follow us @middleeast for news on the region.
Gulf countries are waiting for more certainty on Egypt’s currency and proof it’s making deep economic reforms before unleashing billions of dollars of crucial investment.
Energy-rich allies including
Saudi Arabia and
Qatar have earmarked more than $10 billion for the North African country, which is in need of foreign exchange and has put stakes in a string of state-owned companies
up for sale. Yet only a
fraction of the funding has so far materialized, as Gulf officials keep a close eye on the pound in the wake of three
devaluations in the past year, people familiar with the matter said.
The Gulf countries also want to see that the North African nation is serious about reforms it promised the International Monetary Fund to secure a
$3 billion rescue package, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the matter is confidential. Key changes involve reducing the involvement of the state and the military in the economy and ensuring more transparency about the
finances of state-owned enterprises and unlisted companies.
The governments of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE did not immediately respond when contacted for comment.
Read More: Egypt Needs ‘Critical’ Gulf Deals to Cover Funding Gap
Securing Gulf funding is seen as “critical” for Egypt to bridge a funding gap of some $17 billion in the next few years, the IMF said last month. The $400 billion economy — one of the world’s top wheat importers — is under increasing pressure from the shockwaves of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent food and fuel prices soaring. Any significant delay to funding is likely to deepen the economic crisis and pile more pressure on the pound.
Gulf Deposits Made Up Almost Half Of Egypt's Short-Term Debt
Funds delivered to Egypt's central bank last year
Source: Central Bank of Egypt
Gulf countries aren’t making pledges purely as charity. They have historically seen Egypt — the Middle East’s most populous nation — as
a linchpin for upholding the regional order and vital for energy and trade routes.
Talks between Saudi Arabia and Egypt over the purchase of Cairo-based United Bank have already stalled over a disagreement about how to value the transaction,
Bloomberg reported Wednesday. Wild fluctuations in the exchange rate make it harder to evaluate assets, which means some deals could take longer than initially expected, the people said. Authorities have pledged to enact a flexible rate, while steep plunges for the pound have been followed by long stretches of stability.
What Bloomberg Economics Says
“The ‘wait-and-see’ mode from international investors could put additional pressure on the Egyptian pound. The situation could spill over to Egypt’s debt, as a shortage of funds and a weaker currency increase the burden of servicing external borrowings.”
- Ziad Daoud, chief emerging-markets economist
When Egypt sought urgent help last year, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates deposited $13 billion in Egypt’s central bank. But the country needs foreign direct investment rather than aid, said the people. Hence the proposed sale of shares in 32 state entities, including three lenders, within the next year.
Read More: How to Know Where Egypt’s Once-in-Decade Crisis Is Heading
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan said recently his country
will continue to look at investment opportunities in Egypt, though
signaled a shift in how Saudi Arabia offers financial help to countries, with aid conditional on promises to revamp their economies. It’s a shift that could also have implications for regional countries from Lebanon to Turkey.
Serious Talks
Qatar started serious talks last year to invest about
$2.5 billion in state-held stakes in companies including Vodafone Egypt, the country’s biggest mobile-network operator. The discussions with
Qatar Investment Authority are ongoing and they are exploring multiple opportunities, said the people. Two people said the size of the deal will be different as the valuation of assets changed after the latest currency devaluation in January.
Arab States Are Some of Egypt's Largest Creditors
Percentage of external debt by creditor
Source: Central Bank of Egypt
Last year, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund bought state-owned stakes in four Egyptian publicly listed companies for
$1.3 billion, while Abu Dhabi’s wealth fund ADQ agreed to a
$2 billion deal that included buying about 18% of Egypt’s largest listed lender,
Commercial International Bank. Gulf powers, who provided cash deposits and oil during previous crises, now seem determined to see tangible returns on investment.
That could deepen their involvement in Egypt’s private sector, which has long complained it faces unfair competition from state enterprises, particularly those belonging to the military, deterring large-scale foreign investment. Signs of a shift began in late 2019, when President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi proposed the landmark sale of some firms held by the army, whose commercial interests range from building materials to food, mining and petrochemicals.
The IMF indicated it supports the initiative, setting guidelines such as the submission of financial accounts for state-owned entities to the finance ministry. The institution, however, has warned the changes “may face resistance from vested interests.”
Read More: Egypt’s Economic Pivot Takes Shape as Army Firms Up for Sale
Officials at Egypt’s sovereign wealth fund did a roadshow in the Gulf this month and discussed potential investment opportunities with some countries including Kuwait and Oman. But Egypt also needs to explain to its population the benefits of foreign investment in improving profitability and opening new export markets, according to two of the people. That would help allay any local concern over the sale of state assets.
— With assistance by Tarek El-Tablawy, Simone Foxman and Abeer Abu Omar