GBP/USD God save the yankees

[Fleursdumal]

Sterling surges through $2.07

By Peter Garnham

Published: October 31 2007 11:29
Sterling surged to a fresh 26-year high above $2.07 against the dollar on Wednesday after a survey showed UK house price growth in October equalled the fastest rate this year.

The pound rose 0.3 per cent to $2.0743 against the dollar, its strongest level since 1981, rose 0.1 per cent to £0.6970 against the euro and climbed 0.6 per cent to Y238.50 against the yen.


According to the Nationwide building society, the price of an average house rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.1 per cent in October, more than double the average price rise seen over the previous three months.

Analysts said the data poured more doubt on the prospects that the Bank of England would move to cut UK interest rates - which currently stand at 5.75 per cent - at its monetary policy committee meeting next week.

“This a real eye opener, and substantially dilutes the case for an interest rate cut in November,” said Howard Archer at Global Insight.

“The data reinforce our view that the Bank of England will not trim interest rates until next February,”

In contrast, the dollar was undermined by the widely expected prospect that the Federal Reserve would deliver a 25 basis-point cut in US interest rates after its policy setting meeting at 18.15GMT on Wednesday.

Those expectations have been driven by a steady stream of weak US economic data in recent weeks - including a sharp fall in consumer confidence on Tuesday - that have raised concerns over the health of the US economy following the crisis in the subprime mortgage market.

Indeed, Adrian Schmidt at RBS said he expected the Fed to leave the door open for further interest rate cuts.

“The data has just been too weak for the Fed to take a more hawkish stance at this stage, and the comments from the Fed about the risks to housing don’t suggest they want to disappoint the market,” he said.

“This should prove negative for the dollar and positive for high yielding currencies.”

 

[dan24]

almeno 2,1'-2,11 dovrebbe toccarli

settimanale

mensile

 

[Fleursdumal]

ottimo ty
oggi son saliti perchè pensano che il taglio non ci sarà sulla base di uno dei tanti sondaggi immobiliari che escono al mese
ma intanto oggi Barclays è andata sotto del 7% perchè si sussura abbia chiesto prestito d'emergenza alla BOE , difficile pensare possano mantenersi al 5,75 per molto ancora

 

[dan24]

ottimo ty
oggi son saliti perchè pensano che il taglio non ci sarà sulla base di uno dei tanti sondaggi immobiliari che escono al mese
ma intanto oggi Barclays è andata sotto del 7% perchè si sussura abbia chiesto prestito d'emergenza alla BOE , difficile pensare possano mantenersi al 5,75 per molto ancora

già ma ci saranno casi anche in europa...e la Bce come fa a dire che alzerà lo sanno solo loro...

 

[dan24]

cable entrato in zona 2,10/2,11....siamo a target ma ocio...che stanno sbragando ovunque....contro trend ma metteci degli stop non fate come ne

 

[Fleursdumal]

pazzesco cosa sta facendo il cable, nonostante i dati da far schifo di qualche gg fa.
Oggi ho beccato quasi il max short sulla s3 future 2,1044 max fatto a 46 avessi centrato il max esatto avrei fatto lo sborone alla potenza , peccato che qui ancora da fare giornata cerchiamo il controllo

 

[Fleursdumal]

se domani King taglia voglio vedere che cosa hanno il coraggio di inventarsi

View of the day: Bank of England

Howard Archer, Global Insight



The chances of the Bank of England cutting interest rates on Thursday have increased significantly following a series of soft data releases this week, says Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight.

“A week ago, we had put the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut to 5.5 per cent at 20-25 per cent. We now see it at 35 per cent.”

Mr Archer says, until very recently, the overall impression was that the UK economy had started to lose momentum but that it was slowing relatively gradually.

“However, data releases over the last few days have shown manufacturing output contracting 0.6 per cent in September, the purchasing managers indicating service-sector expansion slowed to a 53-month low in October, and both the CBI and British Retail Consortium reporting retail sales growth slowed last month,” he says. “This suggests that the credit crunch, a marked overall rise in interest rates since August 2006, elevated oil prices, a strong pound and slowing growth in key export markets are now increasingly feeding through to weigh down on economic activity.”

On balance, Mr Archer expects the Bank to leave rates on hold on Thursday but says there is likely to be a “very lively debate” within the monetary policy committee and believes the vote could be very close.

“While we currently forecast the first 25bp reduction to occur in early 2008, another month of weak data would make a December cut likely.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

 

[Fleursdumal]

Bank of England holds rates at 5.75%

By Chris Giles, Economics Editor

Published: November 8 2007 12:00 | Last updated: November 8 2007 12:00

Interest rates were left on hold at 5.75 per cent on Thursday as the majority of members on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee decided the risks of a sharp economic slowdown and falling inflation were not serious enough to warrant an interest rate cut.

The decision was widely expected by economists and financial market participants, although they had frequently changed their minds about the likely path for interest rates over the past three months.


After the Bank’s August inflation forecasts, another rise in rates to 6 per cent seemed certain. The global credit squeeze later in that month and in September then raised expectations of a cut at the November meeting as the turmoil seemed likely to slow the economy more sharply than the Bank was expecting.

But the predictions of a cut have more recently have fallen by the wayside after strong economic data and speeches by MPC members with a distinct “wait and see” flavour.

Third quarter economic growth was estimated by the Office for National Statistics at an above average rate of 0.8 per cent and the Bank has never cut rates with such momentum still in the economy.

By leaving rates on hold, the MPC put more weight on whole-economy figures than on a series of more peripheral, but surpringly feeble economic data that have been published this week.

Industrial production, the purchasing managers’ index of service sector output, the British Retail Consortium’s retail sales index and the house price index from Halifax, the mortgage lender, have all been weaker than expected.

The MPC had the advantage this month of being able to set rates after looking at the quarterly economic data contained in the Bank’s inflation report to be published next Wednesday.

It wants an economic slowdown to keep inflation in check, but not an abrupt halt in growth.

One of the MPC’s greatest dilemmas is that its remit is to hit a 2 per cent inflation target, and even with the havoc in credit markets, the threat remains of rising inflation from high oil, commodity and food prices.

This week, the British Retail Consortium’s assessment of shop prices showed the annual rise in prices was at its highest level this year.

In such uncertain economic conditions, the MPC members will feel able to change their minds in the months to come if comelling evidence emerges that households have lost their resilience to financial market turmoil or if inflation starts rising to dangerous levels again.

The commmittee has shown it is now more willing than before to change rates in meetings other than in Inflation Report months. So the decision on Thursday not to move has little bearing on the outlook for UK interest rates in the months to come.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Altra notissiola cardine, i prezzi delle case, motivo per cui il re ha alzato a manetta i tassi , stanno finalmente freddandosi , ergo appena arrivano altre scosse dal mercato può abbassare senza l'alibi dell'inflazione
Il cable sta reagendo bene tutto sommato, sotto 2,0975 future ne aggiungo n'altro


House prices fall for second month

By Sarah Witt

Published: November 8 2007 09:10 | Last updated: November 8 2007 09:10

House prices in the UK fell 0.5 per cent in October, following September’s 0.6 per cent decline, marking the first time house prices have fallen for two successive months since spring 2005, according to data released by Halifax on Thursday.

The figures, from the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, take the annual three-month rate of house price inflation to 8.9 percent from 10.7 percent and the average house price to £197,248.


The Halifax survey adds to the weight of evidence that the housing market is slowing.

The figures were at odds with last week’s data from Nationwide, which showed an unexpected 1.1 per cent rise in house prices in October, but chimed with other surveys that have shown prices rising only slightly or even falling.

Official data for September showed that the number of mortgages approved for house purchases fell to their lowest level in two years.

Analysts expect the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.75 per cent later on Thursday, although momentum has been building for a cut from the current level.

Commenting on the figures, Howard Archer, of Global Insight, said annual house price inflation seems likely to fall back markedly over the coming months and that it is likely that “house prices will essentially flatten out for an extended period...A sharp housing market correction is a genuine possibility”.

The FT House Price Index, which aims to be the most comprehensive and timely indicator of prices in England and Wales, is published on Friday

 

[dan24]

entrato con 98K adesso a 2,1065 stop a 2,1091..tp a lasciar correre...se no amen