Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Il COT che ti colpiva di più la scorsa release: funds squilibratissimamente net long, OI alle stelle; forse hanno esagerato 
Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
March 6, 2006
Wheat Correction Brief So Far
Last week, wheat markets gave us new highs and a 23-cent correction. Gaps created mid-week were quickly filled as prices tried to regain the upward momentum to close out the week. There is no doubt that this market is still about weather, and it just keeps getting more interesting with each passing day.
Prices fell mid-week on forecasts for a series of rain events to move through the southern plains for about a 10-day stretch. The first series that were scheduled to come mid-week failed to materialize as hot temps evaporated the rain before it even hit the ground. By then, the forecasts for the weekend rains were already being downgraded, with price actions quickly recovering. However, this past weekend did bring some light rains, but forecasts for a number of rain events over the next 10 days will pressure the market to start the week.
The technical formation is still very bullish, with the potential to take prices much higher if we can close above the recent contract highs. The momentum has faltered somewhat, but I think that is a short term issue. The trend is very bullish, and the funds have become quite enamored with owning wheat. They will stick with this position until key supports are broken, and those are a long way below us.
I think we’re do for more of a correction and as long as there is a rain in the forecast, which so far there is, then I think it will be difficult for prices to reach new highs. But until we get a good, soaking rain, the market won’t break more than a token profit-taking correction. Another leg down would satisfy chart formations and provide an excellent buying opportunity. If this does evolve, it will likely be swift and one must be on their toes to catch the break.
It would also be an excellent opportunity to buy the KC/Chicago wheat spreads, even if the spread itself hasn’t corrected all that much. If the trend resumes to the upside, KC will be the leader, with Chicago and Minneapolis tagging behind. Chicago will continue to be a reluctant follower as soft red supplies are plentiful and crop conditions in the Midwest are very good. Minneapolis, while a quality wheat, will also struggle to keep up with KC because of the possibility of increased spring wheat acres, good moisture conditions in the northern plains and the prospect of Canadian wheat now coming across our borders.
Technically, look for support in KC May futures at last week’s low of 4.30, and then the trough at 4.18. Resistance will show at the contract high of 4.535, and if we close above that, upside targets become 4.80-5.00.
In international news, we see that India finally made its purchase of 500 TMT of wheat from Australia. It looks like that wheat will arrive just in time for their own harvest… Iraq finally announced that they would buy 350 TMT from Australia through private sellers, 500 TMT from Canada and 150 TMT from the US.
US export sales were paltry as skyrocketing prices sent buyers elsewhere. Futures prices, however, had little reaction, further suggesting that the focus at this point is on weather, with everything else a distant second.
Wheat Correction Brief So Far
Last week, wheat markets gave us new highs and a 23-cent correction. Gaps created mid-week were quickly filled as prices tried to regain the upward momentum to close out the week. There is no doubt that this market is still about weather, and it just keeps getting more interesting with each passing day.
Prices fell mid-week on forecasts for a series of rain events to move through the southern plains for about a 10-day stretch. The first series that were scheduled to come mid-week failed to materialize as hot temps evaporated the rain before it even hit the ground. By then, the forecasts for the weekend rains were already being downgraded, with price actions quickly recovering. However, this past weekend did bring some light rains, but forecasts for a number of rain events over the next 10 days will pressure the market to start the week.
The technical formation is still very bullish, with the potential to take prices much higher if we can close above the recent contract highs. The momentum has faltered somewhat, but I think that is a short term issue. The trend is very bullish, and the funds have become quite enamored with owning wheat. They will stick with this position until key supports are broken, and those are a long way below us.
I think we’re do for more of a correction and as long as there is a rain in the forecast, which so far there is, then I think it will be difficult for prices to reach new highs. But until we get a good, soaking rain, the market won’t break more than a token profit-taking correction. Another leg down would satisfy chart formations and provide an excellent buying opportunity. If this does evolve, it will likely be swift and one must be on their toes to catch the break.
It would also be an excellent opportunity to buy the KC/Chicago wheat spreads, even if the spread itself hasn’t corrected all that much. If the trend resumes to the upside, KC will be the leader, with Chicago and Minneapolis tagging behind. Chicago will continue to be a reluctant follower as soft red supplies are plentiful and crop conditions in the Midwest are very good. Minneapolis, while a quality wheat, will also struggle to keep up with KC because of the possibility of increased spring wheat acres, good moisture conditions in the northern plains and the prospect of Canadian wheat now coming across our borders.
Technically, look for support in KC May futures at last week’s low of 4.30, and then the trough at 4.18. Resistance will show at the contract high of 4.535, and if we close above that, upside targets become 4.80-5.00.
In international news, we see that India finally made its purchase of 500 TMT of wheat from Australia. It looks like that wheat will arrive just in time for their own harvest… Iraq finally announced that they would buy 350 TMT from Australia through private sellers, 500 TMT from Canada and 150 TMT from the US.
US export sales were paltry as skyrocketing prices sent buyers elsewhere. Futures prices, however, had little reaction, further suggesting that the focus at this point is on weather, with everything else a distant second.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
f4f ha scritto:
ti interessi ai grains ?
icchè mi paraculi?
gli spread sui grains mi hanno sempre attizzato un sacco
lo so, scherzavo
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Questa è la proposta di trade della settimana sugli spread suggerita dalla Joe Ross Spread Trading Newsletter. A sensazione non mi attira molto per i pessimi fondamentali della soia, ma anyway la seguirò con molta attenzione
This week we are looking at May06 Soybeans - May06 Chicago Wheat.
Spread charts provided by Moore Research Center, Inc. (800) 927-7259, www.mrci.com
Today we look at an Inter Market spread: long May06 Soybeans and short May06 Chicago Wheat. Normally the spread starts its seasonal move sometime in February (see seasonal chart above) but there is also a seasonal move from 03/03 – 03/28 (yellow area).
Traders may want to enter the spread at a value of 223 ¾. Margin for the spread is $1,756 (no reduced margin). Suggested risk is $800. Initial projected objective is $800, then a move to 280 or higher. Basis is seasonal and a Ross hook.
This week we are looking at May06 Soybeans - May06 Chicago Wheat.
Spread charts provided by Moore Research Center, Inc. (800) 927-7259, www.mrci.com
Today we look at an Inter Market spread: long May06 Soybeans and short May06 Chicago Wheat. Normally the spread starts its seasonal move sometime in February (see seasonal chart above) but there is also a seasonal move from 03/03 – 03/28 (yellow area).
Traders may want to enter the spread at a value of 223 ¾. Margin for the spread is $1,756 (no reduced margin). Suggested risk is $800. Initial projected objective is $800, then a move to 280 or higher. Basis is seasonal and a Ross hook.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Soy Complex Market Report for 3/30/2006
May soybeans traded unchanged overnight with a tight trading range, as the market consolidated ahead of key reports on Friday morning. Palm oil futures were down 8 points overnight and China futures were lower.
A three day slide in the Brazilian currency could boost their soybean exports and trigger a weaker tone for world cash markets, but Brazilian soybeans are already priced well under US soybeans. The outlook for a jump of near 2.1 million acres for the coming season (if confirmed) could be the type of news which triggers a resumption of the downtrend next week. Producers stayed away from soybeans last year due to Asia rust and less double crop wheat acreage, but factors point to a jump this year. Soft red winter wheat planted acreage is substantially higher this year, and double crop acres in the southern section of the eastern Corn Belt should jump. In addition, irrigation and fertilizer prices are much higher this year, which will discourage western Corn Belt producers from planting corn. Higher energy prices in general have a greater impact on costs for corn as compared with soybeans. Throw in a record South American harvest and record March 1st soybean stocks in the US, and the supply fundamentals look a bit overwhelming. South Korea is tendering to buy 55,000 tonnes of US or Brazil soybeans. Near term support for May soybeans comes in at 577 1/2 with short-term resistance at 582 1/2.
The market inched higher in quiet trade yesterday, with some light buying from funds and specs, but the outlook for big stocks and big planted acreage for the reports on Friday morning and the outlook for 2-3 inches of rain across the Midwest in the next few weeks helped spark the sell-off into the mid-session. Midwest cash basis levels were firm, as processors tried to spark some producer selling, but gulf basis levels were weak this week as Brazil soybeans were offered at a significant discount to US offers. Weakness in palm oil added to the weak psychology. Traders are looking for planting intentions of 2.1 million acres above last year and March 1st stocks at 299 million bushels over last year.
Favorable weather is expected to continue in Argentina and Brazil this week due to a relatively dry forecast. Asia rust was reported in Argentina's 4th largest producing province. Gulf basis was steady ahead of the reports on Friday. South Korea is tendering to buy 55,000 tonnes of US or Brazil soybeans. For Friday morning's USDA planting intentions report, traders are looking for soybean plantings near 74.21 million acres (range 73-75.4) as compared with 72.1 million acres planted last year. March 1st stocks are expected near 1.68 billion bushels (range 1.66-1.703) as compared with 1.381 billion last year. Without a supportive surprise in the USDA reports on Friday, the market looks set to resume the downtrend next week. Resistance for May soybeans comes in at 589 with 555 3/4 as next downside support. December oil support comes in at 24.06 with 24.71 and 24.97 as resistance.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 220,700 tonnes for the current crop and 74,600 for new crop, for a total of 295,300. This was within the range of expectations and up from 234,200 tonnes reported last week. Meal sales came in at 179,000 tonnes for current crop 100 for new crop, which was above the upper end of expectations. Oil sales came in at 9400 tonnes, which was also higher than expected.
May soybeans traded unchanged overnight with a tight trading range, as the market consolidated ahead of key reports on Friday morning. Palm oil futures were down 8 points overnight and China futures were lower.
A three day slide in the Brazilian currency could boost their soybean exports and trigger a weaker tone for world cash markets, but Brazilian soybeans are already priced well under US soybeans. The outlook for a jump of near 2.1 million acres for the coming season (if confirmed) could be the type of news which triggers a resumption of the downtrend next week. Producers stayed away from soybeans last year due to Asia rust and less double crop wheat acreage, but factors point to a jump this year. Soft red winter wheat planted acreage is substantially higher this year, and double crop acres in the southern section of the eastern Corn Belt should jump. In addition, irrigation and fertilizer prices are much higher this year, which will discourage western Corn Belt producers from planting corn. Higher energy prices in general have a greater impact on costs for corn as compared with soybeans. Throw in a record South American harvest and record March 1st soybean stocks in the US, and the supply fundamentals look a bit overwhelming. South Korea is tendering to buy 55,000 tonnes of US or Brazil soybeans. Near term support for May soybeans comes in at 577 1/2 with short-term resistance at 582 1/2.
The market inched higher in quiet trade yesterday, with some light buying from funds and specs, but the outlook for big stocks and big planted acreage for the reports on Friday morning and the outlook for 2-3 inches of rain across the Midwest in the next few weeks helped spark the sell-off into the mid-session. Midwest cash basis levels were firm, as processors tried to spark some producer selling, but gulf basis levels were weak this week as Brazil soybeans were offered at a significant discount to US offers. Weakness in palm oil added to the weak psychology. Traders are looking for planting intentions of 2.1 million acres above last year and March 1st stocks at 299 million bushels over last year.
Favorable weather is expected to continue in Argentina and Brazil this week due to a relatively dry forecast. Asia rust was reported in Argentina's 4th largest producing province. Gulf basis was steady ahead of the reports on Friday. South Korea is tendering to buy 55,000 tonnes of US or Brazil soybeans. For Friday morning's USDA planting intentions report, traders are looking for soybean plantings near 74.21 million acres (range 73-75.4) as compared with 72.1 million acres planted last year. March 1st stocks are expected near 1.68 billion bushels (range 1.66-1.703) as compared with 1.381 billion last year. Without a supportive surprise in the USDA reports on Friday, the market looks set to resume the downtrend next week. Resistance for May soybeans comes in at 589 with 555 3/4 as next downside support. December oil support comes in at 24.06 with 24.71 and 24.97 as resistance.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 220,700 tonnes for the current crop and 74,600 for new crop, for a total of 295,300. This was within the range of expectations and up from 234,200 tonnes reported last week. Meal sales came in at 179,000 tonnes for current crop 100 for new crop, which was above the upper end of expectations. Oil sales came in at 9400 tonnes, which was also higher than expected.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
in attesa del report mensile supply&demand della settimana prossima, ieri bel salto improvviso del corn che ha dato un primo colpo allo spread W-C
DJ CBOT Corn Review: Up; Spec Buying Reverses Losses
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade corn futures ended higher
Thursday as speculative buying helped support the market and as December
rallied after holding at technical support levels below $2.40, sources said.
September corn gained 4 1/4 cents to $2.30 3/4 per bushel, with December
settling up 5 cents at $2.45 3/4. E-CBOT day session volume in December was
51,360 contracts.
The inability to trade below technical support near $2.38 in December helped
the market rebound from lower levels, sources said.
Corn fell below $2.40 but couldn't trade beneath $2.38, and when the market
held above that level, it encouraged buying interest, a commission house
analyst said.
Market technicians got a little scared when December held support and buying
accelerated after December climbed above $2.41, said Mike Zuzolo, chief analyst
at Risk Management Commodities in Lafayette, Ind. In addition, it appeared that
some market participants were unwinding their long wheat-short corn spreads, he
added.
Local short covering and position squaring ahead of next week's U.S.
Department of Agriculture production and supply and demand reports also
provided support, floor sources said.
In a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 20 analysts, the average 2006-07 corn
production estimate was 10.996 billion bushels, slightly higher than the USDA's
10.976 billion estimate in August. The average yield estimate was 152.5 bushels
per acre, slightly higher than the 152.2 bushels forecast in August. In a Dow
Jones Newswires survey of 14 analysts, the average of 2006-07 corn ending
stocks estimate was 1.221 billion bushels, 11 million lower than the 1.232
estimated by the USDA in the August supply and demand report. The average
ending stocks estimate of the 2005-06 crop was 2.046 billion bushels, 16
million bushels below the 2.062 forecast by the USDA in August.
The USDA is scheduled to release its September crop production report on
Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. CDT.
Buyers Thursday included Fimat, which bought 1,000 December; Rand Financial,
which bought 700 December; Fortis, which bought 600 December; and JP Morgan,
which bought 500 December.
UBS sold 2,000 December, Prudential sold 1,000 December, ABN Amro sold 900
December, and JP Morgan sold 500 December.
Overall commodity fund selling was estimated at 1,000 contracts.
In options trading JP Morgan bought 3,000 December $3.00 calls, 3,000
December $3.10 calls and 2,000 December $3.20 calls.
Oat futures ended modestly lower Thursday as light commission house selling
weighed on the market, a floor trader said. September oats finished 2 cents
lower at $1.86 per bushel and December slipped 1 cent to $1.92 1/2.
Ethanol futures settled mixed in quiet trade. October ethanol settled
unchanged at $2.08 cents per gallon and November rose 1.5 cents to $2.08.
On Friday, the USDA is scheduled to release the weekly export sales report
for the week ended Aug. 31 at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Analysts expect corn export sales
between 900,000-1.4 million metric tons.
DJ CBOT Corn Review: Up; Spec Buying Reverses Losses
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade corn futures ended higher
Thursday as speculative buying helped support the market and as December
rallied after holding at technical support levels below $2.40, sources said.
September corn gained 4 1/4 cents to $2.30 3/4 per bushel, with December
settling up 5 cents at $2.45 3/4. E-CBOT day session volume in December was
51,360 contracts.
The inability to trade below technical support near $2.38 in December helped
the market rebound from lower levels, sources said.
Corn fell below $2.40 but couldn't trade beneath $2.38, and when the market
held above that level, it encouraged buying interest, a commission house
analyst said.
Market technicians got a little scared when December held support and buying
accelerated after December climbed above $2.41, said Mike Zuzolo, chief analyst
at Risk Management Commodities in Lafayette, Ind. In addition, it appeared that
some market participants were unwinding their long wheat-short corn spreads, he
added.
Local short covering and position squaring ahead of next week's U.S.
Department of Agriculture production and supply and demand reports also
provided support, floor sources said.
In a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 20 analysts, the average 2006-07 corn
production estimate was 10.996 billion bushels, slightly higher than the USDA's
10.976 billion estimate in August. The average yield estimate was 152.5 bushels
per acre, slightly higher than the 152.2 bushels forecast in August. In a Dow
Jones Newswires survey of 14 analysts, the average of 2006-07 corn ending
stocks estimate was 1.221 billion bushels, 11 million lower than the 1.232
estimated by the USDA in the August supply and demand report. The average
ending stocks estimate of the 2005-06 crop was 2.046 billion bushels, 16
million bushels below the 2.062 forecast by the USDA in August.
The USDA is scheduled to release its September crop production report on
Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. CDT.
Buyers Thursday included Fimat, which bought 1,000 December; Rand Financial,
which bought 700 December; Fortis, which bought 600 December; and JP Morgan,
which bought 500 December.
UBS sold 2,000 December, Prudential sold 1,000 December, ABN Amro sold 900
December, and JP Morgan sold 500 December.
Overall commodity fund selling was estimated at 1,000 contracts.
In options trading JP Morgan bought 3,000 December $3.00 calls, 3,000
December $3.10 calls and 2,000 December $3.20 calls.
Oat futures ended modestly lower Thursday as light commission house selling
weighed on the market, a floor trader said. September oats finished 2 cents
lower at $1.86 per bushel and December slipped 1 cent to $1.92 1/2.
Ethanol futures settled mixed in quiet trade. October ethanol settled
unchanged at $2.08 cents per gallon and November rose 1.5 cents to $2.08.
On Friday, the USDA is scheduled to release the weekly export sales report
for the week ended Aug. 31 at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Analysts expect corn export sales
between 900,000-1.4 million metric tons.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
rapporto USDA del mese
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194
e prime reazioni a mercati ancora chiusi
DJ * CBOT Traders Call Corn Dn 2-4c; Soy Mixed On USDA Data
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194
e prime reazioni a mercati ancora chiusi
DJ * CBOT Traders Call Corn Dn 2-4c; Soy Mixed On USDA Data
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