Fleursdumal
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What is going on in the Corn market?
Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil
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Fleursdumal
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usito il supply and demand report di novembre
Fleursdumal
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notizia shock dall'argentina, c'è aria da limit up sul corn
Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 11/20/2006
December corn traded 9 1/2 cents higher overnight on news of a suspension of corn exports in Argentina.
The surge higher in corn overnight stemmed from news that Argentina had decided to suspend corn exports indefinitely, which is a shock to the grain trade which was counting on Argentina exports to fill the void of the loss of China as a major corn exporter this year and from extremely tight world corn supplies. US export sales are already running at a much faster than normal pace for the current projection. In addition, there is some concern in the grain trade over the slow corn harvest in China and fears that China exporters could see defaults on export contracts as sales were done at much lower prices. The tightness in supply of exportable corn is a surprise for China exporters who assumed that grain would be flowing by now due to a record corn crop. Argentina officials noted "an unusual and surprising level of exports" and that no corn export permits would be issued until the export registry had been audited. For the 2006/2007 season (crop just planted) export sales of 10.1 million tonnes have been registered as compared with exports for the whole season estimated by the USDA at near 11.5 million tonnes. Taiwan has temporarily lifted a ban on feed corn imports from China for about 3 months. India officials have not issued a ban on corn exports, but there are fears that demand may exceed supply in the domestic market. Corn production in India this season is thought to be near 12.75 million tonnes, with demand near 14 million tonnes. Feed associations have already requested a ban. Private forecasts for barley production in Australia have dropped to near 3.4 million tonnes from 9.5 million tonnes last year. On top of the other supportive short term news for corn, the USDA attache in China indicates a China goal of quadrupling ethanol production to 4 million tonnes by 2010 and a 15% target of renewable fuel for all transportation energy needs by 2020.
The market closed moderately higher on the session Friday after a sharp increase in fund buying activity late in the day pulled corn up more than 9 cents from the lows. December corn managed to close 12 cents higher on the week. Ideas that the short term fundamentals remain bullish in spite of the technical sell-off Thursday helped to provide early buying support, but some additional long liquidation selling pushed the market to the lows shortly after the opening until there was a 5 cent bounce into the mid-session. News that Taiwan is considering temporarily lifting a ban on imports from China was seen as a potentially negative force, but traders remain uncertain if China will export more corn than already on the books. News that Argentina temporarily suspended grain and oilseed export permits helped spark buying across the floor, but news that the suspension was due to administration problems and would only be in effect for one day caused grain markets to set back off of the highs. A general recovery in metals and energy markets off of the lows eased concerns of a commodity washout day and added to the positive tone late.
Gulf basis was steady. The Commitment of Traders Report with options shows the market in a classic bullish setup with non-commercial traders (trend following funds) net long near 288,000 contracts and non-reportable traders net short near 100,600 contracts. This leaves the market vulnerable to increased buying from funds and increased short covering buying from small speculators if resistance levels are violated. However, the fund net long position is at a record high level which could trigger some long liquidation selling at this time of the year. May corn held at minor support on Friday, and with Argentina and China corn exports in question, commercial buyers should be active today.
Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 11/20/2006
December corn traded 9 1/2 cents higher overnight on news of a suspension of corn exports in Argentina.
The surge higher in corn overnight stemmed from news that Argentina had decided to suspend corn exports indefinitely, which is a shock to the grain trade which was counting on Argentina exports to fill the void of the loss of China as a major corn exporter this year and from extremely tight world corn supplies. US export sales are already running at a much faster than normal pace for the current projection. In addition, there is some concern in the grain trade over the slow corn harvest in China and fears that China exporters could see defaults on export contracts as sales were done at much lower prices. The tightness in supply of exportable corn is a surprise for China exporters who assumed that grain would be flowing by now due to a record corn crop. Argentina officials noted "an unusual and surprising level of exports" and that no corn export permits would be issued until the export registry had been audited. For the 2006/2007 season (crop just planted) export sales of 10.1 million tonnes have been registered as compared with exports for the whole season estimated by the USDA at near 11.5 million tonnes. Taiwan has temporarily lifted a ban on feed corn imports from China for about 3 months. India officials have not issued a ban on corn exports, but there are fears that demand may exceed supply in the domestic market. Corn production in India this season is thought to be near 12.75 million tonnes, with demand near 14 million tonnes. Feed associations have already requested a ban. Private forecasts for barley production in Australia have dropped to near 3.4 million tonnes from 9.5 million tonnes last year. On top of the other supportive short term news for corn, the USDA attache in China indicates a China goal of quadrupling ethanol production to 4 million tonnes by 2010 and a 15% target of renewable fuel for all transportation energy needs by 2020.
The market closed moderately higher on the session Friday after a sharp increase in fund buying activity late in the day pulled corn up more than 9 cents from the lows. December corn managed to close 12 cents higher on the week. Ideas that the short term fundamentals remain bullish in spite of the technical sell-off Thursday helped to provide early buying support, but some additional long liquidation selling pushed the market to the lows shortly after the opening until there was a 5 cent bounce into the mid-session. News that Taiwan is considering temporarily lifting a ban on imports from China was seen as a potentially negative force, but traders remain uncertain if China will export more corn than already on the books. News that Argentina temporarily suspended grain and oilseed export permits helped spark buying across the floor, but news that the suspension was due to administration problems and would only be in effect for one day caused grain markets to set back off of the highs. A general recovery in metals and energy markets off of the lows eased concerns of a commodity washout day and added to the positive tone late.
Gulf basis was steady. The Commitment of Traders Report with options shows the market in a classic bullish setup with non-commercial traders (trend following funds) net long near 288,000 contracts and non-reportable traders net short near 100,600 contracts. This leaves the market vulnerable to increased buying from funds and increased short covering buying from small speculators if resistance levels are violated. However, the fund net long position is at a record high level which could trigger some long liquidation selling at this time of the year. May corn held at minor support on Friday, and with Argentina and China corn exports in question, commercial buyers should be active today.
Fleursdumal
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ascesa e caduta dello spread W-C 
Fleursdumal
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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
This full-text monthly report provides the most current USDA forecasts of U.S. and world supply-use balances of major grains, soybeans and products, and cotton; and U.S. supply and use of sugar and livestock products.
Publication Date: Dec 12, 2006
This full-text monthly report provides the most current USDA forecasts of U.S. and world supply-use balances of major grains, soybeans and products, and cotton; and U.S. supply and use of sugar and livestock products.
Publication Date: Dec 12, 2006
Fleursdumal
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Selling Greets the New Year
Well, the wheat market started the year with plenty of energy – unfortunately to the downside. Just prior to the Christmas break prices had a nice rally right up to major resistance levels which is where they stalled; the week between the holidays saw prices lose those gains and this week extend those losses as we broke through the December lows.
Much of the weakness can be attributed to the two major snow storms in late Dec., plus another one in early Jan. Even though they both caused a great deal of stress for livestock, the moisture fell in the most needed areas of the western central plains. The snows and rains that fell in the plains are reportedly enough to all but eliminate the moisture deficits across most of the region. Even though the crop is still dormant, there will now be plenty of moisture available to the crop when it does break dormancy, a far cry from the situation last year and even this fall.
The improved moisture situation only added to the bearish situation wheat has found itself struggling with over the last couple of months. Even with world wheat stocks at record tight levels, the US has been unable to gain dominance in the export market, a feat that seemed all but a given just last fall. The continued presence of the Black Sea region in major wheat sales is a harsh reminder that the competition is as fierce as ever, with few signs of relenting. This week was another reminder of just that when Egypt bought 160,000 MT of US soft wheat, but also bought another 210,000 MT of Russia and Kazakhstan wheat.
We expected to see slow export sales last week due to the holidays, but the actual figures were even lower than projected, with wheat sales a paltry 135,000 MT, compared to an estimate of 325,000 – 425,000. So here we are, still floundering in the export arena in the last half of the marketing year, and now looking at the prospect of a large winter wheat crop for the next marketing year. If tight supplies are going to influence price action, it will have to happen soon.
USDA will release the long awaited winter wheat plantings estimate on Friday, Jan 12 with most estimates looking for a significant increase in hard red acres. The prospect now of excellent growing conditions once the crop breaks dormancy suggests plenty of wheat is coming our way this summer and thus creating another wave of bearish mentality. The report will also be the final production estimates for corn and beans; with wheat generally being a follower of corn, we could see some influence from those numbers as well.
The leadership of corn isn’t helping as it appears to be breaking down technically; the double top formation with a large gap lower will be difficult to overcome. With record corn production expected next, the ethanol demand will be the key factor in determining price direction for corn in the coming months and thus for wheat.
Technically, look for support in KC March at Friday’s low and the trough of 4.74, then the September low of 4.64 and then the August low of 4.615. Resistance should show at 4.90, then the swing low of 4.98, followed by the minor gap from 5.015 – 5.02. In Chicago March, look for support at Friday’s low of 4.625, then the trough of 4.605, followed by the swing low of 4.53 and then the breakout of 4.47. Resistance should show at the breakout of 4.785, followed by the major gap from 4.88 – 4.945.
spectrum
Well, the wheat market started the year with plenty of energy – unfortunately to the downside. Just prior to the Christmas break prices had a nice rally right up to major resistance levels which is where they stalled; the week between the holidays saw prices lose those gains and this week extend those losses as we broke through the December lows.
Much of the weakness can be attributed to the two major snow storms in late Dec., plus another one in early Jan. Even though they both caused a great deal of stress for livestock, the moisture fell in the most needed areas of the western central plains. The snows and rains that fell in the plains are reportedly enough to all but eliminate the moisture deficits across most of the region. Even though the crop is still dormant, there will now be plenty of moisture available to the crop when it does break dormancy, a far cry from the situation last year and even this fall.
The improved moisture situation only added to the bearish situation wheat has found itself struggling with over the last couple of months. Even with world wheat stocks at record tight levels, the US has been unable to gain dominance in the export market, a feat that seemed all but a given just last fall. The continued presence of the Black Sea region in major wheat sales is a harsh reminder that the competition is as fierce as ever, with few signs of relenting. This week was another reminder of just that when Egypt bought 160,000 MT of US soft wheat, but also bought another 210,000 MT of Russia and Kazakhstan wheat.
We expected to see slow export sales last week due to the holidays, but the actual figures were even lower than projected, with wheat sales a paltry 135,000 MT, compared to an estimate of 325,000 – 425,000. So here we are, still floundering in the export arena in the last half of the marketing year, and now looking at the prospect of a large winter wheat crop for the next marketing year. If tight supplies are going to influence price action, it will have to happen soon.
USDA will release the long awaited winter wheat plantings estimate on Friday, Jan 12 with most estimates looking for a significant increase in hard red acres. The prospect now of excellent growing conditions once the crop breaks dormancy suggests plenty of wheat is coming our way this summer and thus creating another wave of bearish mentality. The report will also be the final production estimates for corn and beans; with wheat generally being a follower of corn, we could see some influence from those numbers as well.
The leadership of corn isn’t helping as it appears to be breaking down technically; the double top formation with a large gap lower will be difficult to overcome. With record corn production expected next, the ethanol demand will be the key factor in determining price direction for corn in the coming months and thus for wheat.
Technically, look for support in KC March at Friday’s low and the trough of 4.74, then the September low of 4.64 and then the August low of 4.615. Resistance should show at 4.90, then the swing low of 4.98, followed by the minor gap from 5.015 – 5.02. In Chicago March, look for support at Friday’s low of 4.625, then the trough of 4.605, followed by the swing low of 4.53 and then the breakout of 4.47. Resistance should show at the breakout of 4.785, followed by the major gap from 4.88 – 4.945.
spectrum
Fleursdumal
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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 01.12.2007
Fleursdumal
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reazioni:
Corn in limit up dall'apertura con un fila tale in acquisto che difficilmente aprirà oggi
wheat limit up toccato
soybeans limit up sfiorato
il CHAOS
Corn in limit up dall'apertura con un fila tale in acquisto che difficilmente aprirà oggi
wheat limit up toccato
soybeans limit up sfiorato
il CHAOS
ditropan
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:reazioni:
Corn in limit up dall'apertura con un fila tale in acquisto che difficilmente aprirà oggi
wheat limit up toccato
soybeans limit up sfiorato
il CHAOS
Giovà ... ma che caz.zo è successo oggi ? leggevo sul report che i prezzi attesi sul corn sono per un range tra 300 e 340 ... e me lo trovo per il secondo giorno in limit-up
... tra l'altro il granoturco non è nemmeno stato seminato ... che mierda !! Oggi mi hanno proprio fatto passare la voglia di continuare in questo mestiere.
... come hai una pancia ed un cervello ti fot.tono all'istante ... tra un pò se ricorro al trading usando il lancio della monetina come fattore discrezionale diventerà quasi certamente più redditizio.
Fleursdumal
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quel range è fasullo vecio, contano i fondamentali e li stanno facendo pesare
forza e coraggio alpin che oggi almeno su grano e soia si può tradare alla meraviglia
forza e coraggio alpin che oggi almeno su grano e soia si può tradare alla meraviglia
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