Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

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Allora avevo ben capito...:rolleyes:

Non credo che sia una buona idea perchè l'ivestitore a questo punto chiederà rendimenti sempre più maggiori ai piigs. A meno che non sappiano che a breve (due-tre anni) alcuni stati dovranno ristrutturare per cui cercano di far passare questo principio in modo da evitare salvataggi.

Lo spazio, ora sarà dato ai "Comitati Tecnici", sarà lì che si giocherà la partita.
Comunque la proposta della Frau è vaga, oltrechè ovvia.
In caso di "ristrutturazione" o "default" l'investitore privato è sempre stato coinvolto, suo malgrado.

L'ipotesi di coinvolgimenti da parte di "privati" è stata comunque respinta dalla BCE per bocca di Trichet, in quanto potrebbe rimettere in subbuglio tutta l'area periferica.
Anche in questa occasione Trichet si è dimostrato un Leone, anzichè il Tricheco dei primi anni di presidenza. Magari lo rimpiangeremo quando scadrà il mandato ...
 
Adesso che sono aggiornato sulla situazione greca devo dire che il nuovo mese non dovrebbe essere positivo. Temo anche una recrudescenza verso il debito ellenico per scopi valutari eur/dollaro, anche. Inoltre le tensioni politiche non potranno che farci del male, dalla Germania a quelle misere elezioni elleniche. L'unico vero campanello di allarme è l'intervento della BCE sulla Grecia, era da tanto che mancava all'appello...

Se userà lo stesso metodo precedente, lo farà per poco tempo: stabilizzato il ribasso si ritornerà nella solita lateralità. Ma questa volta dovremo fare i conti con una economia mondiale per il 2011 che sembra sempre meno positiva. Figuriamoci per la Grecia, ma è anche presto per disperarsi... sono riusciti, a ben pensarci, a fare molto (in tanti la davano in punto di morte e si parlava di 10 giorni, poi 20, poi 1 mese, poi 2 e siamo giunti a novembre 2010!).
 
Greek PM gives new hint he may call election

By George Georgiopoulos
ATHENS | Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:11pm EDT



ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou gave a fresh hint Saturday that he may call a new general election if his party fares poorly at municipal polls next week, a prospect that has sent jitters through markets.
With opinion polls showing his socialist party's popularity declining before the municipal elections on November 7, Papandreou has been urging Greeks to support his government's efforts to tackle a crisis that has shaken the euro.

"If our course so far starts to be doubted, if we show that we are losing resolve in the middle of the road and are being led to destabilization, confidence in the country will be lost," Papandreou told Sunday's RealNews paper in an interview.

"In such an eventuality, there will be no other solution than for the Greek people to speak, to condemn policies of destabilization and decide on the country's future course," he said.

The remarks will be seen as a fresh hint that he is prepared to call a general election, a prospect he first suggested in an interview with seven TV stations on October 25.

Financial markets are worried that a new general election could hurt efforts to resolve the crisis. Yield spreads on Greek government bonds widened over benchmark German bunds beyond 800 basis points after the October 25 interview.
Papandreou has not said precisely what results in the municipal election would prod him to call for a new general election, but he said the threat is not idle.

"I am not bluffing. The crisis we are facing is not a bluff. I noted an existing risk for the country if we subscribe to the (political opposition) New Democracy, the danger of turning back, seeing our sacrifices going to waste," Papandreou said.


Euro zone countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have bailed Greece out with 110 billion euros in exchange for strict fiscal measures and reforms as agreed in a memorandum. Meeting these targets is key for continued funding.
In his 12 months in office, Papandreou has imposed harsh deficit-cutting measures, including public sector wage and pension cuts and higher taxes amidst Greece's deepest recession in decades.

Although his party still leads in opinion polls, belt-tightening and rising unemployment may inflict damage in the upcoming local polls, when Greeks elect mayors and local governors.
In another interview with Sunday's Eleftherotypia newspaper, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said stable political support was key to continuing the task of leading the over-borrowed country out of its fiscal crisis.

"It is not our intention to go to early elections. The prime minister's message was clear: the outcome of (municipal) elections will be taken into account to see whether the government can continue its course to save the country with the support of the people," he said.

The opposition conservatives, who voted against the bailout memorandum Greece signed with the EU and the IMF, have been calling for changes in the policy mix to help the economy recover from a downward spiral.
Papandreou also told the paper that despite an expected upward revision of last year's deficit by EU statistics office Eurostat, the government would meet key fiscal targets without new measures that would burden wage earners and pensioners.

He said next year would be difficult but would mark the end of the recession and ruled out any debt restructuring.
"We are not discussing such an eventuality (debt restructuring). Greece will meet its targets. These scenarios are originating from those who do not wish to see us succeed, the same people who have been betting on the country going bankrupt. Greece will prove them wrong, once again."

***
Papandreou ha coraggio da vendere ...
 
M.O.: Israele principale minaccia per sicurezza turca

ultimo aggiornamento: 30 ottobre, ore 15:0



Gerusalemme, 30 ott. (Adnkronos) - La Turchia considera Israele come "minaccia centrale" per la sua sicurezza. E' quanto si legge nel documento del Consiglio nazionale di sicurezza turco che delinea la politica di sicurezza di Ankara per i prossimi cinque anni.
Il documento viene definito "storico" dai media turchi perche' inserisce Israele fra le minacce alla sicurezza per la prima volta dalla fondazione dello stato ebraico nel 1948.
Dalla lista delle minacce sono stati contestualmente cancellati Siria, Iran, Bulgaria, Georgia e Armenia, ma non la Grecia.
 
A Greek love affair



As tensions with Turkey grow, Israel bolsters ties with neighboring Greece. Foreign Minister Dimitris Droutsas says friendship between two nations can only get stronger
Published: 10.18.10, 21:06


The relationship between Israel and Greece at this time can be described as a love affair. After a long period of cool relations, accompanied by harsh criticism of Israel, a new era has begun under the leadership of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. The reason for the rapprochement, and for the warm Israeli ties with Cyprus as well, has to do with the grave crisis in Israel-Turkey ties – with Ankara being a longtime rival of the two island states.

The love affair pertains to almost every aspect. Israeli tourists who abandoned Turkish resorts discovered Greece and saved the locals from the damages of the grave economic crisis. Meanwhile, Israeli and Greek gunships engaged in a joint maneuver last week, possibly as a hint to Turkish PM Erdogan, who put an end to such Israeli-Turkish cooperation. On another front, talks are underway on a future gas pipelines from Israel to Europe that would pass through Greece.

In recent weeks, Greek media outlets have reported at length about the dramatic improvement in ties between the two countries. A Greek military source said that Israel is mostly interested in aviation cooperation, while the Greeks expected to receive defense technologies and embark on joint projects to develop defense systems.
In August, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Greece as PM Papandreou's guest, and last week a senior Greek delegation visited Israel in order to identify areas for cooperation. In an unusual move, delegation members met with PM Netanyahu, as well as other senior officials.

In another development highlighting the current idyll, Greek Foreign Minister Dimitris Droutsas landed in Israel Sunday for a two-day visit. Among other things, he was expected to sign a new aviation cooperation agreement with his counterpart, Avigdor Lieberman.

Strategic interests

Ties between the two nations were never cold and have been conflict-free, despite their long history, Droutsas told Yedioth Ahronoth in a special interview, adding that the current Greek government intends to bolster the renewed tied further.

When asked if Turkey should be concerned, Droutsas said that the cooperation between Jerusalem and Athens would never go against any other nation. On the contrary, he said, "One of the main parameters here is to stabilize the entire region. The Middle East is of vital interest for Greece." Athens, he added, wishes to cultivate peaceful and neighborly relations in the region, which could only benefit its prosperity.

Israel and Greece share political, economic, cultural and defense ties, he continued, and also to create strategic ties which would span all areas equally. "One thing is very clear – Israel is a pioneering nation when it comes to high-tech and we would be thrilled if such cooperation proved fruitful."

As for the rumored Israeli-Greek gas line, Droutsas said that energy, in any form, is of great significance to Greece and Europe, and naturally – for Israel as well. Nevertheless, he qualified, it is still too early to discuss specific plans.

The Greek economy has been slowly recovering from one of the worst recessions in its history, and the gradual process – and underlying potential – has not escaped the attention of Israeli investors, who are eying Greek investments. According to Droutsas, the biggest potential currently lies in the tourism and renewable energy industries and the government in doing its best to attract foreign investors.

The deepening crisis between Israel and Turkey had a resounding effect on the Turkish tourism industry, as tension between the two leading Israelis to practically abandon their once-favorite vacation destination, in favor of nearby Greece.
"There is a very impressive 60% growth in tourism from Israel. If in 2009 155,000 Israelis visited us, in 2010, so far, we've had over 250,000. We are delighted and flattered that Israelis prefer Greece now, and we hope it will not be a fleeting phenomenon, but one that keeps growing," Droutsas said.

Greece's beauty, he added, is one that takes a lifetime to experience. "Israelis should know that we welcome them. We want to cultivate these ties, because a touristic link is also a cultural one between our people," he said.

'We understand Israel's concerns'

But what about Turkey's new affinity to Iran? According to the Greek FM, while naturally, every nation is free to prioritize policies as it sees fit, Greece's foreign policy focuses on two avenues: pursuing a set of values and principles which promote stability, and participating in formulating European Union policies, in a way which would bolster the EU's international standing and position. "Turkey's position on Iran does not coincide with that of the EU," Droutsas said – a point that cannot be taken lightly considering that Ankara wants to become a member nation.

Greece, he added, supports the EU's position that every peaceful way to resolve the Iranian problem should be exhausted. "We are truly concerned by the fact that no such progress has been made. Things today are perilous."

When asked where Athens stands on the issue of Gaza-bound flotillas – especially in view of recent report that it had prevented such sails from leaving its shores, Droutsas treads carefully: "Greece understands Israel's legitimate security concerns perfectly. Simultaneously, we understand the humanitarian problems in Gaza. Israel's decision on mitigations was a step in the right direction, but the difficult situation in Gaza does not contribute to the peace process."

Gaza's frustration, he continued, "Pushed parts of the Palestinian people to the extreme and fuels the fires of radical groups, which in turn has various implications on Israel's security. The situation has prompted Greece and Cyprus to promote an initiative which may ease the flow of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip."
Greek public opinion of Israel, however, is less forgiving, but Droutsas believes that can be changed.

"Strengthening the ties between our countries reflects a sentiment shared by both nations...the harsh humanitarian situation in Gaza and the perpetuation of the Palestinian problem harm Israel's international image, not just its image in Greece.

"That is why I feel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to pursue peace talks with Mahmou Abbas is so important. Both leaders deserve our support. They must develop mutual trust that would enable them to resolve the situation."
Droutsas also believes that the differences between Israelis and Greeks are minute.

"We have so much in common, in all aspects of life," he said. To illustrate, he points out that he has no idea how it is that the many successful Greek-style Israeli singers, such as iconic singer Yehuda Poliker, have yet to become mega-stars in Greece.

"I wish my visit had started on a Friday – I missed the chance to see Poliker at the Zapa Club in Tel Aviv," he said.

A Greek love affair - Israel News, Ynetnews

***
Cliccando il link troverete altri articoli riguardanti i rapporti Grecia-Israele.
 
Ultima modifica:
Ieri il calo dei Tds greci sull'OTC è continuato, ma in misura decisamente più attenutata che nei giorni precedenti, con qualche primo timido segnale di stabilizzazione sui titoli che meno avevano corso nella recente fase di recupero dei prezzi (e che si confermano dunque in una loro minore volatilità rispetto ai bond della parte intermedia della curva - i 2016 - 2019 - soggetti ad oscillazioni di maggiore ampiezza)

L'assestamento sembrerebbe tuttavia contraddetto dall'andamento odierno dei mercati retail, che vede nuovi scivolamenti dei prezzi per taluni di questi titoli (altri in verità, mentre scrivo, sembrerebbero dare qualche segnale di tenuta, specie alcuni lunghissimi)

Fondamentale sarà il dato OTC di stasera (vedrò se sarà possibile comunicarlo in tarda serata o nella prima mattinata di domani) per capire se quello di oggi sul retail è panic sellic dei piccoli che sono entrati sui Tds greci all'inizio dell'autunno, senza molto capirne e sull'onda dei prezzi che salivano, oppure se effettivamente il calo attuale (se non recuperato in giornata) troverà conferma, ed in che misura, sull'OTC.

il 2013 - 86,80 (BBML) 86,80 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 83,81 (BBML) 83,94 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 83,36 (BBML) 83,50 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 70,49 (BBML) 70,67 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 69,40 (BBML) 69,69 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 68,55 (BBML) 68,73 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 74,01 (BBML) 74,25 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 75,97 (BBML) 76,09 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 72,20 (BBML) 72,34 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 63,06 (BBML) 63,29 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 64,89 (BBML) 64,84 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 56,74 (BBML) 56,88 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 56,72 (BBML) 56,92 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 53,64 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 50,19 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

Solo dopo il messaggio ho rammentato che trascrivere i prezzi OTC di venerdì in tarda serata o nella prima mattinata di sabato avrebbe avuto poco senso... :-o :D

Veniamo dunque a noi. Il close di venerdì conferma in realtà l'andamento del giorno precedente: relativa tenuta dei titoli lunghissimi (i 2037 e 2040) e dei GGBei, che accusano cali marginali, debolezza marcata sul tratto intermedio della curva, medio e medio lungo (2013 - 2019, per semplificare) dove i cali accusati hanno raggiunto i due punti percentuali.

L'impennata della curva dei rendimenti vede il suo apice nel 2013 e va lentamente degradando man mano che ci si sposta in avanti nel tempo, a significare - secondo me - che i fattori di rischio, nella lettura dei mercati, potrebbero risiedere soprattutto nelle decisioni che si vanno prendendo in queste settimane, in ambito UE ed internazionale, circa i meccanismi di gestione del debito greco dopo il 2012, piuttosto che non nella situazione politica interna greca o nel newsflow macroeconomico.

il 2013 - 85,78 (BBML) 85,60 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 82,40 (BBML) 81,95 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 81,59 (BBML) 81,65 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 68,88 (BBML) 69,02 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 68,14 (BBML) 68,18 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 67,47 (BBML) 67,90 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 72,96 (BBML) 73,06 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 74,77 (BBML) 74,52 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 71,73 (BBML) 71,29 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 62,65 (BBML) 63,10 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 64,66 (BBML) 64,44 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 56,78 (BBML) 56,80 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 56,79 (BBML) 56,55 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 53,54 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 50,31 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
 
PM: Greece running its own marathon




"Greece is running its own marathon," prime minister George Papandreou said on Sunday, but expressed certainty that "together, we will finish, and quickly, I hope", in a statement after completing the 10-kilometer split on the sidelines of the 28th Athens Classic Marathon, which marked the 2,500th anniversary of the Battle of Marathon.

In a newspaper interview appearing on Sunday, Papandreou stressed that he was not bluffing or escaping from the problems, iand denied as "ludicrous" reports that he has opted for an "exit strategy".

"I am not bluffing, I am not escaping from the problems, I am not taking posthumous fame into account, in the face of the pressing needs and magnitude of the challenges," Papandreou said in an interview with RealNews newspaper.

He stressed that in a democracy there are no impasses, adding that, for him, "defeat" would be inability to contribute the utmost to the battle for changing Greece. Papandreou stressed, however, that the prospect of recourse to the people (early general elections) does not depend on an isolated electoral result but on whether the country is headed to an impasse.

Papandreou reiterated his prediction that 2011 will be the last year of recession, stressing that Greece has assumed specific commitments and will carry them out, "without regard for the supposed political cost".

"In 2013, the situation in the country will be much better and we will have once again entered a developmental track," the premier said.

He further ruled out the prospect of a new Memorandum, "simply, because a new Memorandum is not needed".

(ana.gr)
 
Abstention 'irresponsible'


Communist Party of Greece (KKE) leader Aleka Papariga stressed that abstention from the upcoming local government elections is "irresponsible", in an address in Petroupolis.

She called on the Greek people to disengage themselves from the two mainstream parties -- ruling PASOK and main opposition New Democracy (ND) and to cast a "responsible vote" for the KKE.

"Abstention is irresponsiblity. Participation and a responsible stance is a vote for the KKE and the tickets it backs" in the November 7 local administration elections, she said.

(ana.gr)
 
Greek PM: Early National Elections No Idle Bluff - Press



ATHENS (Dow Jones)-Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou Sunday highlighted the prospect of early national elections if the ruling socialist party fares poorly in Nov 7 local elections, the weekend newspaper Real News reports.

The ruling party's popularity appears to be waning ahead of the local elections after a year of harsh austerity measures, including wage and pension cuts and tax hikes, in exchange for the EUR110 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.

"I am not bluffing and the crisis we are facing is not a bluff. There is an existing risk for the country if we subscribe to the main conservative opposition New Democracy, since the danger of turning back would mean our sacrifices going to waste," Papandreou said.

This is the second time within a week that the Prime Minister has talked about early nationals polls, leading to widening local bond spreads and denting the share prices on the Athens stock exchange since early national polls could derail reform efforts.

Papandreou has turned the local elections into a referendum on his government's efforts at fiscal adjustments and reforms, raising the stakes and putting his own personal popularity on the line to curtail a potential protest vote by the electorate next Sunday.

"If our course starts to be doubted and if we show that we are losing resolve mid way on this road this will be destabilizing and confidence in the country will be lost," the Prime Minister said.

"In such a situation there will be no other solution than for the Greek people to speak and decide on the country's future course," Papandreou added.

The Prime Minister has not defined what he would consider a sufficient enough poor showing for his ruling PASOK party to take debt laden Greece to national polls after only a year of his government's life.
 
Final tax policy decisions in November


The Greek government is poised to finalize its decisions on tax policy for 2011 within the coming month. The decisions will cover the transfer of products from a tax rate of 11 pct currently to a higher rate and taxation of vehicles. This policy is included in a memorandum signed by the Greek government and the EU/IMF/ECB troika in order to be implemented from January 1, 2011 and help the government raise 1.0 billion euros annually.

The Finance ministry is examining various scenarios, such as the transfer of products from an 11 pct tax rate to an intermediate tax rate. Decisions on the issue are expected to be reached following consultations with the troika experts, expected to visit Greece in November as part of a regular inspection of the course of the Greek economy ahead of approval of a third tranche of a 110-billion euros support loan.

The government is examining plans to cut registrations duties for middle-class cars, offering a much-needed breathe to the domestic car market hit by the crisis. The government has already decided to postpone for six months the introduction of higher tax rates in real estate property in order to avoid a further burdening of a market already 30 pct down compared with 2009. The ministry will probably raise taxes on real estate property in June 2011.

A draft tax bill, to accompany next year’s state budget, will also include a cut in corporate taxes to 20 pct from 24 pct currently.

(ana.gr)
 
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