Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[Grisù]

L'altra volta ci hai azzeccato in pieno: rialzo poi ricaduta.
Per i prossimi mesi credi che ci possa essere ancora un'analoga dinamica oppure si possa crescere senza però - in una eventuale ridiscesa - ritoccare più i minimi?
E' chiaro che tutto dipenderà, oltre che dalla Grecia, dal contesto complessivo...

L'ultima volta ho rilasciato le brevi-medie perchè non vedevo chiaro sulle intenzioni politiche europee e questo aspetto per me amplificava il rischio in termini non determinabili a priori a fronte dei possibili guadagni.

Diciamo però che se non ci fosse stata la crisi irlandese (peraltro annunciata da molti mesi) lo spread non credo sarebbe cresciuto in queste dimensioni.

Vedo molta speculazione o overshooting che dir si voglia sul debito europeo, US e UK dominano in ambito finanziario e se serve sparano con i cannoni (es. la caduta improvvisa dei titoli italiani delle scorse settimane).

L'EU ha tutti gli strumenti per decretare la fine di questa crisi e attuare politiche di rilancio economico tramite la Bce ma non ho ancora capito se ci sono o ci fanno . Secondo me bisogna pazientare, non credo che i paesi periferici lascino passare tutto quello che le teste disabitate della contadina e sarcoso vorranno tentare di implementare per salvaguardare i propri bilanci. In tal senso è naturale che in caso di rottura degli accordi la speculazione si divertirà a fare a pezzi la maggior parte dei PIGS diversificando tra short e CDS.

 

[tommy271]

Israeli defense industries in talks with Greek army

By YAAKOV KATZ
12/12/2010 03:51

Multi-million deal in the works to sell weapons system for Hellenic Air Force’s F-16 fleet.


In an effort to improve ties with Greece and create new military partnerships in the Mediterranean, Israeli defense industries are in talks with the Hellenic Armed Forces over a possible multi-million dollar sale of advanced weapons systems.

A senior Israeli defense delegation consisting of officials from the Defense Ministry and local industries recently traveled to Greece to discuss the deal, which could include weapons systems for the Hellenic Air Force’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

Officials said that the deal has been in the works for several months, ever since Binyamin Netanyahu made Israeli history and became the first prime minister to visit Greece in August.

One of the obstacles in the way of the deal is Greece’s poor economy, but officials said they were seeking creative ways for Greece to pay for the systems and enable the deal to materialize.

Israeli-Greek ties have been on the ascent since May’s navy raid on a Turkish flotilla trying to break the Israeli-imposed sea blockade on the Gaza Strip. In response to the raid, which ended with nine dead Turkish nationals, Turkey cut off all military and political ties with Israel.

Locked out of Turkey, the Israel Air Force found a new partner in Greece. Over the past year, it has held four exercises in Greece, most recently in October and November; these last ones included the deployment of squadrons of fighter jets and attack helicopters.

Officials said that Israel would continue to cooperate with Greece and was also likely to hold maneuvers in Bulgaria in the beginning of 2011.

Last week, the IAF held joint maneuvers with the Italian Air Force in the Negev, just two weeks after completing a round of joint drills in Sardinia. The maneuvers were held out of the Uvda Air Force Base in the South and included IAF F-16s and Italian Tornados.

The IAF’s “Flying Dragon” Squadron, which impersonates enemy forces, flew against the Italians.

(The Jerusalem Post)

***
Il quadro geostrategico va cambiando ...

 

[tommy271]

ECB's Stark Says Greece Is on Track but Needs Structural Reform



By NICK SKREKAS

ATHENS—European Central Bank board member Jürgen Stark said the Greek fiscal consolidation program is broadly on track but the country needs to redouble its efforts and urgently address issues of structural reforms, according to an ECB news release Saturday.

In May, the ECB, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund agreed to grant Greece a €110 billion ($145 billion) bailout to prevent certain bankruptcy in exchange for unprecedented austerity measures and deep structural reforms.

"The program remains broadly on track," Mr. Stark said in an interview to To Vima, a Greek newspaper, that will be published Sunday. "But Greece needs to continue structural reforms to lay a sound basis for growth and job creation. It is not a short-term task. It is not a 100-meter sprint, it is a marathon, and Greece has just started with this process."
Mr. Stark is the ECB'is the most influential board member after President Jean-Claude Trichet. His long and respected tenure at the Bundesbank has reinforced his credentials with financial markets.

The senior central banker said that cash-strapped Greece needs to do more to unlock the potential of Greek industries by "cutting red tape and privatizing state assets." Mr. Stark underlined that structural reforms are needed to secure competitiveness and reinvigorate employment and output.

"But a very credible process has been launched [for] the alignment of wages with corporate productivity, including through a reform of arbitration and collective bargaining systems and an opening up of services, trades and professions," Mr. Stark said.

The Greek socialist government is preparing an omnibus bill to address labor-market reform, open up closed professions, restructure and privatize loss-making state-owned enterprises, along with other changes to taxation policy. The government plans to submit the bill to parliament for an emergency vote Tuesday.

In response, Greece's largest unions are planning a paralyzing strike on Wednesday to protest the legislative initiative that they argue will erode job security, lower wages across the private and public sector and create a "new dark age" for labor relations.

The government argues that the country risks not being able to draw down on future tranches of the bailout if the tough reforms aren't implemented.

IMF President Dominique Strauss-Kahn repeated on Tuesday in a meeting with senior local politicians that because Greece has made progress the fund is open to extending the repayment terms of the €110 billion bailout to avoid the repayment hump that will occur in 2014 and 2015. For that period Greece will need to be able to borrow about €70 billion every year just to repay loans, which Prime Minister George Papandreou and Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou argue is an onerous and possibly unsustainable burden.

The European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, Olli Rehn, on Thursday during his visit to Athens said that European finance ministers will "look positively at extending repayment terms" and are likely to give the green light for the process early next year to bring the Greek bailout closer to the terms of the Irish bailout.

However, the repayment extension is likely to also bring a rise in the loan's interest rates from the portion of funds provided by the ECB and the commission.

Mr. Stark said: "In principle, this could be achieved by lengthening the repayment period for the current loans or by agreeing on a new arrangement.

"These options do not mean softening the conditionality [and] lengthening the maturity does not mean postponing necessary reforms," he added.



(The Wall Street Journal)

 

[tommy271]

L'ultima volta ho rilasciato le brevi-medie perchè non vedevo chiaro sulle intenzioni politiche europee e questo aspetto per me amplificava il rischio in termini non determinabili a priori a fronte dei possibili guadagni.

Diciamo però che se non ci fosse stata la crisi irlandese (peraltro annunciata da molti mesi) lo spread non credo sarebbe cresciuto in queste dimensioni.

Vedo molta speculazione o overshooting che dir si voglia sul debito europeo, US e UK dominano in ambito finanziario e se serve sparano con i cannoni (es. la caduta improvvisa dei titoli italiani delle scorse settimane).

L'EU ha tutti gli strumenti per decretare la fine di questa crisi e attuare politiche di rilancio economico tramite la Bce ma non ho ancora capito se ci sono o ci fanno . Secondo me bisogna pazientare, non credo che i paesi periferici lascino passare tutto quello che le teste disabitate della contadina e sarcoso vorranno tentare di implementare per salvaguardare i propri bilanci. In tal senso è naturale che in caso di rottura degli accordi la speculazione si divertirà a fare a pezzi la maggior parte dei PIGS diversificando tra short e CDS.

Grazie, credo sia quello che pensiamo.
All'ultimo rialzo avrei dovuto vendere anch'io e rientrare poi più in basso. Ma è facile dirlo ora ... la realtà è che su questi titoli chi ci "azzecca" è bravo.

 

[Noloss]

Grazie, credo sia quello che pensiamo.
All'ultimo rialzo avrei dovuto vendere anch'io e rientrare poi più in basso. Ma è facile dirlo ora ... la realtà è che su questi titoli chi ci "azzecca" è bravo.

idem

 

[Noloss]

Press Trust Of India

Athens , December 12, 2010
First Published: 20:52 IST(12/12/2010)
Last Updated: 20:54 IST(12/12/2010)



Greece must accelerate reforms: ECB economist



The European Central Bank's chief economist said on Sunday that Greece needed to press on with difficult structural reforms if it is to overcome the debt crisis plaguing the nation.
"The programme remains broadly on track... But Greece needs to continue structural reforms to lay a sound basis for growth and job creation," Juergen Stark said in an interview with Greek daily To Vima.
"It is not a 100-metre sprint, it is a marathon, and Greece has just started with this process," he said.
"What is important now is that some delays in the preparation of important structural reforms, particularly in the second wave of labour market reforms, urgently have to be addressed," he said.
Greece has committed itself to drastic reforms and cutbacks in its overblown state sector in return for a 110-billion-euro (148-billion-dollar) EU-IMF loan that saved it from bankruptcy earlier this year.
In late November, Athens won approval for a new slice of rescue funding but the IMF and EU prescribed even tougher action on tax evasion, waste in health care and on state companies to merit another payout.
"Structural reforms are needed to secure competitiveness and to reinvigorate output and employment growth," said Stark.
Meanwhile, Stark rejected the prospect of eurobonds, a common bond that would enable eurozone countries to pool their borrowing capacity.
The idea was proposed earlier this week by Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, and Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti, but swiftly rejected by France and Germany.
"Some countries would benefit from a Eurobond because they would pay lower interest rates, but other countries would not benefit because they would have to pay higher interest rates," said Stark.
"Artificially lowering the interest rate would create a disincentive for the governments concerned and should therefore be avoided. Eurobonds would not solve the structural problems that some countries are facing," he said.
Stark also issued a warning for eurozone members to enhance economic governance.
"We (the ECB) have the clear mandate to maintain price stability. To ask for other objectives would overburden the ECB," Stark said.
"We are not in charge of fiscal policy. Our mandate is not to make it easier for governments to refinance their debt," he said.

*****
nulla di nuovo

 

[Noloss]

Turning crisis into opportunity: The case for Greece
The Sterling Report
with Pamela Lewis
Sunday, December 12, 2010​

Sovereign bonds have long been used by investors to increase their wealth. Many of our investors will remember the days of Brazil sovereign bonds in 1999 and the Russian sovereign bonds around the same period which allowed them to realize sizable capital appreciation in the subsequent years. These bonds were selling at significant discounts during the late nineties due to instability in the respective markets. Brazil was experiencing high levels of inflation, a currency devaluation and a slowdown in economic growth. Similarly Russia was reeling under massive fiscal deficits and ultimately pursued a restructuring of its debt. Nevertheless, discerning investors who bought those bonds enjoyed handsome coupons of 14.50 per cent p.a. and 12.75 per cent p.a., respectively and significant capital gains on their investments.
Sovereign bonds are debt securities issued by the Government of any country. The securities are usually denominated in a foreign currency, because Governments try to target the currency of the most stable economies in order to make their debt as attractive as possible. It also allows them to appeal to a much wider market since international investors can purchase their bonds without taking on the foreign exchange risk of bonds denominated in local currencies.​

Firefighters are reflected in the helmet of a colleague as they gather outside the Finance Ministry in Athens, Greece on Thursday. Unions have staged a series of strikes and demonstrations, with about 100 uniformed firefighters marching to the ministry. Greece's seventh nationwide general strike this year has been called for December 15. The European Union (EU) will likely decide early next year on extending Greece's repayment period for the bailout loans that saved it from default, top EU economic official Olli Rehn said Thursday. (Photo: AP)
When choosing to invest in sovereign bonds, a major concern for investors is default risk. This is the risk that the issuer of the bonds will be unable to pay back the investors according to the terms of the agreement. Governments with low credit ratings are at higher risk of default and offer higher coupons to compensate the investor for this risk. In contrast, Governments with high credit ratings are at lower risk of default and their bonds attract lower coupons.
Greece presents an interesting example of a country which may present itself as an opportunity for the return hungry investor. Greece quickly became one of the first casualties of the European debt crisis which commenced in late 2009. By May 2010, the country had received a bailout package from the IMF and the European Union to the tune of $110 billion, an amount deemed sufficient to fund the Government's obligations for the next three years. In a December 7th 2010 press release, IMF managing director, Dominic Strauss-Khan noted the strides that Greece had made so far under the IMF program. Greece has already achieved a narrowing of its fiscal deficit, an improvement in the public financial management and tax administration systems as well as the strengthening of its financial sector and completion of pension reform.
Should the bailout accomplish its intended purpose, we could view Greece as a country on the mend. As the global economic conditions improve, it is believed that the Greece economy will begin to grow. This new growth will be taking place within a new and enhanced fiscal and monetary macro economic framework as devised by the IMF and the Greek authorities. The IMF remains committed to extending Greece's repayment schedule in furtherance of its support to that country and to the preservation of the European Monetary System.
Turning to returns on Greek bonds, we find that those maturing in 2013 are currently yielding approximately 11per cent p.a as at Wednesday 8/12/2010. On this date too these bonds were the most heavily traded security with a turnover of 19 million Euros. The bailout package has given these bonds a kind of implicit guarantee to be paid out on maturity and as such they appear to be a relatively safe investment. In other words, they are not expected to be the subject of any default action. However, the situation is quite dynamic and there is no telling what will happen as the European debt crisis spreads from one country to another. Politicians will play a major role in determining how the problems will be resolved and this will only add to the uncertainty surrounding the eventual outcome.
Many investors have made money buying bonds when their prices are depressed. Jamaican Government bonds are one example of these and they, from time to time, have done well in the market, depending on the timing of investors' purchases and sales. Like all other investments, bond prices are volatile and certainly do not go up ad infinitum. There are peaks and troughs and investors should ask their advisors to help them to choose the best time to buy and sell in order to optimize the value of their investments.
Pamela Lewis is the Manager of Investment and Client Services at Sterling Asset Management. Sterling provides medium to long term financial advice and instruments in U.S. and other world market currencies to the corporate, individual and institutional investor.
*****
La parte interessante è l'ottimismo sui bond greci e anche se di novità non se ne parla, la parola d'ordine è sempre 2013 e poi la ripresa economica. La vera parola chiave capace di scardinare tutti i timori.​

 

[Noloss]

<LI class="dateStamp first">DECEMBER 12, 2010, 9:47 A.M. ETIMF Strauss-Khan: Greece At Crucial Reform Crossroads

ATHENS (Dow Jones)--International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Khan Sunday said in a press release that the program for the consolidation of the Greek economy is at a crucial crossroads as a series of fundamental structural changes have to be implemented in the following few months.
In May, the IMF and the European Union provided a EUR110 billion bailout for the debt strapped Mediterranean nation to avoid bankruptcy in exchange for unprecedented austerity measures and the promise of deep structural reforms.
"There has been good progress in a number of key areas but to get growth going again fundamental structural reforms are needed. For example, opening up services, trade, and the professions; streamlining state enterprises; and improving the climate for business and investment," Strauss-Khan said in an interview with national Sunday newspaper Kathimerini.
In the press release he said if Greece can maintain the momentum of reform, investors will come to realize the country's commitment to change and confidence will grow.
"I am optimistic Greece can do it," Strauss-Khan said.
The managing director repeated that the IMF is advocating the extension of the repayment period for the loan to Greece, noting in the press release that "we will work with our European partners on a solution to give Greece some further breathing room."
Strauss-Kahn also noted the need for consensus among Greek political parties, and in that context he opened a "window" for limited adjustments to the memorandum.
"Greece is at a defining moment in its history and the country can only succeed if there is the broadest possible support for the changes that are needed," he said.
The managing director said if Greece can implement the reforms in the memorandum program, the IMF projects that growth will return in the latter half of next year or early in 2012.
"I believe that, ultimately, [the Greek] people will support reforms--even very difficult reforms--if they feel they are in the best interest of their country and if everyone is contributing their fair share," he said in the release.
Strauss-Khan said there are major differences between the problems in Greece and those in Ireland, even if both have asked for a bailout. He said the economic programs for the two troubled countries need to be tailored to the specific circumstances.
"While Greece was mainly affected by mounting public debt in an uncompetitive and relatively closed economy, Ireland, which has a very open and dynamic economy, faced mainly a crisis in the banking system that became a heavy burden on state finances," the managing director said.
The top IMF executive described the situation in Europe as "serious" and underlined the need for a comprehensive European approach to the crisis. He indirectly criticized Germany which is taking a reserved stance on the repayment extension of Greek loans and also opposes the proposed issuing of euro-zone bonds.
"The situation in Europe is serious, but it is not a threat to the euro. The euro zone's system and institutions...need to be strengthened so as to better deal with crises. I am confident this will happen," Strauss-Khan added.
-By Nick Skrekas, Dow Jones Newswires; +30 210 2830685; [email protected]
*****
oggi vi sono tutte news positive sulla Grecia, circa una ottantina che dicono le stesse cose ma sempre in visione ottimistica

è già un buon segno augurale

qui ci cita il 2012 come l'anno della ripresa economica

 

[Noloss]

Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia back EU integration of Western Balkans

12/12/2010
SOFIA, Bulgaria -- Foreign Minister Nikolay Mladenov and his Greek and Serbian counterparts, Dimitris Droutsas and Vuk Jeremic, have voiced support for the EU integration of Western Balkan countries. The three top diplomats met in Sofia on Saturday (December 11th). Mladenov said that Bulgaria and Greece, as EU members, have the historic responsibility to help countries from the region in their preparations to join the bloc. Droutsas briefed his counterparts about Greece's initiative to call an EU-Western Balkans summit in 2014 that could set a date for accession of Balkan countries to the EU. (BNR, BNT - 11/12/10)
*****
se questo può bastare per i detrattori della presenza in UE della Grecia

 

[mago gambamerlo]

Siamo in due !

Grazie, credo sia quello che pensiamo.
All'ultimo rialzo avrei dovuto vendere anch'io e rientrare poi più in basso. Ma è facile dirlo ora ... la realtà è che su questi titoli chi ci "azzecca" è bravo.