Greek economy to shrink 3 pct or more in 2011 -cbank
Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:34am EST
* Greek GDP to shrink 3 pct or more in 2011
* Unemployment seen rising in 2011, real wages to drop 5 pct
* Consumer inflation to slow to 2.2 pct in 2011
* Greek banks to face more loan book deterioration
* Credit growth to private sector to stall or turn negative
(Adds details, background)
By George Georgiopoulos
ATHENS, Feb 15 (Reuters) -
Greece's economy will stay in recession for a third straight year in 2011 with gross domestic product (GDP) seen shrinking at least 3 percent, the country's central bank said in a monetary policy report on Tuesday.
Austerity measures to slash deficits, including cuts in public sector pay and pensions and higher indirect taxes have squeezed economic activity, as the
euro zone member struggles to resolve its debt crisis.
Greece's 230 billion euro economy slumped by a projected 4.2 percent last year, leading to record high unemployment of 13.9 percent by November. [ID:nLDE7190WQ] The government forecasts the economy will contract 3 percent this year.
"GDP is expected to decline by about 3 percent in 2011, without ruling out a slightly bigger fall. Recession is hurting consumption and investments even more," the Bank of Greece said in the report.
It estimated that investment may have dropped more than 18 percent last year.
Athens has been forced to impose stringent austerity measures as a condition of the 110 billion euro bailout it agreed with the European Union and International last May to try and solve its debt crisis.
Data on Tuesday showed that GDP shrank a worse-than-expected 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 from the previous quarter, and fell 6.6 percent from a year ago.
The central bank expects unemployment to continue rising this year with the protracted economic downturn leading to a marked drop in consumer inflation to around 2.2 percent from an annual rate of 5.2 percent currently.
Core inflation is seen dropping below 1 percent.
The central bank said high inflation rates, resulting from increased value-added tax rates and higher oil prices, squeezed average real wages by 9 percent last year, with another drop of about 5 percent forecast for 2011. "The rebound in exports reflects mainly the recovery in world demand and secondarily the improved cost competitiveness in 2010, which is seen continuing this year. The current account deficit as a percentage of GDP will fall further in 2011," the central bank said.
TOUGH YEAR FOR BANKS
For the country's banking system, 2011 will be a year of challenges, requiring lenders to be on the alert, the bank said.
"This year (Greek) banks will face an expected further deterioration in their loan portfolio quality, the need to gradually reduce their dependence on the Eurosystem for their liquidity needs and adjust gradually to new international regulatory requirements," the report said.
European Central Bank funding to Greek banks has reached 95 billion euros based on November 2010 data as banks' have been mostly shut out of wholesale funding markets due to concerns about
Greece's sovereign debt. [ID:nATH005847] The Bank of Greece expects credit extended to the private sector to stop growing or turn negative in 2011.
It reiterated that Greece must intensify its fiscal adjustment efforts to attain sustainable primary surpluses quickly, along with structural reforms to reduce the operating cost of the country's public sector.
EU and IMF inspectors on Friday approved a fourth installment of bailout funds for Greece but warned that Athens' fiscal adjustment plan could go off the rails unless it accelerated reforms and scaled up privatisations.