German Two-Year Government Notes Rise on Peripheral Borrowing Cost Concern
By Emma Charlton and Keith Jenkins - Mar 4, 2011 11:58 AM GMT+0100 Fri Mar 04 10:58:11 GMT 2011
March 4 (Bloomberg)
German two-year government notes rose while their Greek equivalents fell, on concern higher borrowing costs may hamper the region’s most indebted countries, spurring demand for the euro zone’s safer assets.
Greece’s two-year yields reached the highest since May 10, the first trading day after the European Union and the international Monetary Fund announced the creation of a bailout fund to backstop the euro. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said yesterday it’s “possible” that rates will rise at the central bank’s April meeting.
His comments drove the German two-year yield up 23 basis points yesterday, the biggest increase since January 2009.
“There are some questions being asked about what tighter policy does for wider Europe, so that’s helping the bid toward core product,” said Eric Wand, a rates strategist at Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets in London. “Trichet was pretty clear that there would be a hike come April, so that’s going to underpin the German front-end going forward.”
The two-year note yield was two basis points lower at 1.76 percent as of 10:56 a.m. in London after reaching 1.84 percent, the highest since December 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 1.5 percent security due March 2013 rose 0.035, or 35 euro cents per 1,000-euro ($1,387) face amount, to 99.49. The yield on German 10-year bunds,
Europe’s benchmark government debt securities, was one basis point lower at 3.32 percent.
March 25 Deadline
Trichet will speak alongside governing council members including
Mario Draghi and
Christian Noyer at a Banque de France conference in Paris today. The ECB’s anti-inflation stance comes as European Union leaders approach a March 25 deadline for a reinforced plan to aid debt-strapped countries.
Greece’s two-year yields surged 24 basis points to 15.16 percent. The yield difference between German 2-year notes and Greek securities of a similar maturity was 13.41 percentage points, the widest since May 7, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Ten-year bunds were higher before a U.S. labor market report that is forecast to show employers added 196,000 workers last month, after a 36,000 gain in January, according to the median forecast of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report may also show the jobless rate increased to 9.1 percent from 9 percent.
“Right in front of payrolls data, people aren’t going to want to set too much risk on their books,” Wand said.
German-U.S. Spread
The yield difference, or spread, between German two-year notes and U.S. securities of the same maturity, narrowed four basis points to 98 basis points. It reached 103 basis points yesterday, the highest since Dec. 30, 2008, as traders added to bets that the
European Central Bank will raise borrowing costs before the
Federal Reserve.
The Frankfurt-based central bank, which left its key rate at a record low of 1 percent yesterday, is concerned about so- called second-round inflation effects, when companies raise prices and workers demand more pay to compensate for soaring energy and food costs, Trichet said. Euro-area inflation accelerated to 2.4 percent last month.
Euribor futures fell, pushing the implied yield on the contract expiring in December 2011 up two basis points to 2.18 percent. Earlier it rose to 2.215 percent, matching the highest since Feb. 22, 2010, as investors added to bets that the ECB will increase borrowing costs.
Forward contracts on the euro overnight index average, or Eonia, signal investors think the ECB will increase the key rate 25 basis points by its July meeting, Deutsche Bank AG data shows.
Higher Yields
“We are seeing consolidation at substantially increased yield levels,” said
Kornelius Purps, an interest-rate strategist at UniCredit SpA in Munich. “The market has priced in three interest rate hikes by the end of the year.” UniCredit has “penciled in a rate of about 2.5 percent by the end of this year,” on the two-year, he said.
Since the end of January, Greece’s 10-year bonds have risen on six trading days, falling on 18. They fell for the seventh- straight day today, pushing the yield up three basis points to 12.1 percent.
German
government bonds lost investors 2.3 percent this year, compared with a 0.7 percent loss for
U.S. Treasuries, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. Greek debt returned 1.7 percent over the same period, the indexes showed.