Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (36 lettori)

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amorgos34

CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
sillogismi

«Far fallire Lehman è stato un errore madornale vogliamo riprovarci con la Grecia?»,


Ciao Giuseppe :), mi sembra che spesso si confondono le opinioni con i dati di fatto

1) Lehman NON è stata fatta fallire, si è deciso di non salvarla. E' diverso.

2) Siamo sicuri (dove è la prova ?) che sia stato un errore madornale non salvare quel ragazzaccio di Fuld ?


A me sembra che si dia troppa importanza alla "politica", nessun parruccone può cambiare lo stato di fatto delle cose.

Era veramente sistemica la Grecia ? C'era e c'è un modo per risolvere il problema in un secondo.


Gli USA al termine della Seconda Guerra Mondiale ritennero di non chiedere (al contrario dell'URSS che fino al 1983 si faceva pagare i risarcimenti di guerra dalla DDR) risarcimenti a Italia e Germania. Anzi. Lanciarono (non perchè gli eravamo simpatici, ma perchè consideravano il nostro benessere vantaggioso per loro) il Piano Marshall.


Disclaimer (per Methos e altri) : non invoco nessun Marshall per la Grecia, ritengo che ci dovrebbe pensare chi ritiene che un eventuale dflt greco potrebbe causare una crisi peggiore a quella del 2009.
Finora invece si sono imposte ad Atene misure a volte utili, altre inutili, altre ancora dannose che hanno (profetizzato da molti) messo in ginocchio il Paese.

:up:
 

ferdo

Utente Senior
Ciao Giuseppe :), mi sembra che spesso si confondono le opinioni con i dati di fatto

1) Lehman NON è stata fatta fallire, si è deciso di non salvarla. E' diverso.

2) Siamo sicuri (dove è la prova ?) che sia stato un errore madornale non salvare quel ragazzaccio di Fuld ?


A me sembra che si dia troppa importanza alla "politica", nessun parruccone può cambiare lo stato di fatto delle cose.

Era veramente sistemica la Grecia ? C'era e c'è un modo per risolvere il problema in un secondo.


Gli USA al termine della Seconda Guerra Mondiale ritennero di non chiedere (al contrario dell'URSS che fino al 1983 si faceva pagare i risarcimenti di guerra dalla DDR) risarcimenti a Italia e Germania. Anzi. Lanciarono (non perchè gli eravamo simpatici, ma perchè consideravano il nostro benessere vantaggioso per loro) il Piano Marshall.


Disclaimer (per Methos e altri) : non invoco nessun Marshall per la Grecia, ritengo che ci dovrebbe pensare chi ritiene che un eventuale dflt greco potrebbe causare una crisi peggiore a quella del 2009.
Finora invece si sono imposte ad Atene misure a volte utili, altre inutili, altre ancora dannose che hanno (profetizzato da molti) messo in ginocchio il Paese.

:up:

finchè lo diciamo noi pir.letti è un conto, ma se lo afferma pubblicamente pure Draghi penso che qualche studio di supporto lo abbiano fatto - per lo meno me lo auguro
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Ciao Giuseppe :), mi sembra che spesso si confondono le opinioni con i dati di fatto

1) Lehman NON è stata fatta fallire, si è deciso di non salvarla. E' diverso.

2) Siamo sicuri (dove è la prova ?) che sia stato un errore madornale non salvare quel ragazzaccio di Fuld ?


A me sembra che si dia troppa importanza alla "politica", nessun parruccone può cambiare lo stato di fatto delle cose.

Era veramente sistemica la Grecia ? C'era e c'è un modo per risolvere il problema in un secondo.


Gli USA al termine della Seconda Guerra Mondiale ritennero di non chiedere (al contrario dell'URSS che fino al 1983 si faceva pagare i risarcimenti di guerra dalla DDR) risarcimenti a Italia e Germania. Anzi. Lanciarono (non perchè gli eravamo simpatici, ma perchè consideravano il nostro benessere vantaggioso per loro) il Piano Marshall.


Disclaimer (per Methos e altri) : non invoco nessun Marshall per la Grecia, ritengo che ci dovrebbe pensare chi ritiene che un eventuale dflt greco potrebbe causare una crisi peggiore a quella del 2009.
Finora invece si sono imposte ad Atene misure a volte utili, altre inutili, altre ancora dannose che hanno (profetizzato da molti) messo in ginocchio il Paese.

:up:

Però hanno riempito l'Europa di basi militari (tutt'ora presenti) e "colonizzato" l'Europa con prodotti e multinazionali.
Insomma sono usciti dalla Grande Depressione del '29.
Chiudo l'OT.

Per quanto riguarda la Grecia, il programma di risanamento ha certamente aggravato la recessione.
D'altro canto è una straordinaria occasione per ammodernare il paese.
Papandreou ha accettato la sfida.
La scommessa dei prossimi mesi è intravedere l'uscita dal tunnel.
I dati dell'export sono incoraggianti, vedremo se ne seguiranno altri.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Greek Minister of State: Greece will not default

By Zhang Ming'ai China.org.cn, April 15, 2011



Greece will not default, Greek minister of state Haris Pamboukis told China.org.cn on Thursday in Beijing.
When asked to comment on whether Greece is planning to restructure its debt, Pamboukis said "Greece will not default." Germany and other EU members will not allow Greece to default because it would have tremendous negative consequences for the Euro zone and the world, Pamboukis added.

"As far as I know, no government officials from European countries have expressed the idea that Greek should default," Pamboukis continued.

Greece is only one of several Eurozone countries that have been hit by the debt crisis, Pamboukis said.
"We have been handling the crisis in a responsible way and have taken serious measures which are not easy for the Greek people and are also very difficult for the government," Pamboukis said.

Greece has been following a program designed by the Greek government, the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF and the European countries will continue to provide solid support for Greece, the Minister of State said.

"Greece has some structural problems but we have made some progress," Pamboukis said.
"The deep problem for Greece is not the debt but how we are going to be competitive and how we are going to regain growth", Pamboukis said.

Last year, two members of the German parliament caused outrage by suggesting that Greece should sell off some of its uninhabited islands to reduce its debt. "Greece would never sell islands," Pamboukis said – adding that Greece would always safeguard its territorial integrity.


China-Greece ties

Pamboukis said that his visit to China had two objectives. One is to present business proposals to Chinese companies, and the other is to pave the way for the Greek Prime Minister's visit to China next month.
Three Chinese companies are involved in major business operations in Greece – China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO), Huawei Technologies Co and ZTE Corporation, Pamboukis said, expressing the hope that more Chinese companies will invest in Greece.

Greece will strive to be efficient, friendly and open, in order to build confidence among foreign investors, Pamboukis added.
Pamboukis also expressed his government's determination to fight bureaucracy and said a new ‘fast track' law is intended to speed up and facilitate strategic investments. Chinese businesses are welcome to participate in such investments, he added.

Greece is one of the European countries most open and friendly to China, Pamboukis said. "The crisis will pass but the friendly relationship between these two countries will last," he added.

(china.org.cn)
 
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tommy271

Forumer storico
Grecia, Cds 5 anni sale di 15 pb a 1.105 pb - Markit

venerdì 15 aprile 2011 10:51





LONDRA, 15 aprile (Reuters) - Il costo per assicurarsi dal caso di default del debito greco è aumentato sulle crescenti speculazioni che la Grecia possa aver bisogno di ristrutturare il suo debito.
Il Cds a 5 anni è salito di 15 punti base a 1.105 punti base, secondo dati Markit, ciò significa che costa 1,1 milioni di euro per assicurare 10 milioni di euro di debito greco dal rischio di default.
Tensioni anche sull'Irlanda, dopo che stamane Moody's ha ridotto ulteriomenet il rating portandolo a 'Baa3' con outlook negativo, un livello considerato 'junk'. Il Cds a 5 anni dell'Irlanda è salito di 10 punti base a 555 pb, dice Markit.


***
Spread sempre stabili intorno ai max a 995 pb.
 
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tommy271

Forumer storico
EURO GOVT-Greek, Irish yields rise; Bunds edge up






Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:14am EDT

* Moody's cuts Ireland; Greek, Irish bond yields rise
* Spanish 10-year bonds underperform ahead of auction
* Bunds post modest gains




By Kirsten Donovan
LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - Yields of Greek and Irish bonds rose on Friday and were seen climbing further on growing speculation Athens will eventually need to restructure its debt and after Moody's downgraded Ireland to just above 'junk' status.
Spanish bonds underperformed at the 10-year maturity as investors booked profits from a rally through March ahead of a bond auction next week.
German government bond yields edged lower, but failed to gain much traction from the renewed bout of worries over the region's highly indebted issuers.
"With some clarity over Portugal, investors are looking at who's next and seem to have gone back 12 months to look at Greece," said WestLB rate strategist Michael Leister.
"We'll probably see further pressure into next week with Spain selling 10-year bonds and the market trying to squeeze out a liquidity premium."
Greece will present fresh austerity and privatisation plans on Friday in an attempt to convince markets it can tidy up its finances and avoid restructuring its debt.

Greek 2-year bonds had an indicative bid price of 77.5 and yields topped 18.5 percent GR2YT=TWEB while the Irish/German 5-year government bond yield spread was 20 basis points wider at 724 bps.
The equivalent Spanish spread was 11 bps wider at 201 bps.
Adding to the worsening sentiment, Moody's downgraded Ireland two notches to Baa3 -- two notches below Standard & Poor's BBB+ and the lowest investment grade rating -- and kept the outlook negative.
June Bund futures FGBLc1 were 17 ticks higher at 120.86.
"We're probably going to see yields drift up on the periphery but Bunds aren't getting much of a lift from it, probably because no one has positions in Greece, Ireland or Portugal anymore," said a trader.

Technical resistance on the Bund future comes at Thursday's high of 121.11 and last week's high of 121.23, with support at 121.29, the five-day moving average and 119.89, corresponding to the key 3.5 percent level in yields, the trader said.
Two-year German bond yields DE2YT=TWEB were half a basis point lower at 1.862 percent, with 10-year yields DE10YT=TWEB down 1.5 bps at 3.411 percent after posting lower closing levels for the last three sessions since failing to break above 3.5 percent on Monday.
Bund underperformance has compressed the 10-year spread between German bonds and Treasuries to its lowest since late 2009 at around 0.5 basis points.
"Bunds are looking cheap on a cross-market basis," said the trader.

"We need some more hawkish rhetoric from the central bank to justify where we are versus Treasuries and Gilts."
Fears of an eventual debt restructuring pushed Greek yields up by as much as one percentage point on Thursday and weighed on the wider periphery, with Portuguese yields hitting new highs.
"In order to reduce Greece's debt burden to the Maastricht treaty limit of debt to GDP of 60 percent the bonds would have to take a haircut of some 62 percent," said Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income at Evolution Securities.
"We are not saying that this would be the first restructuring step, but it might be closer to the final one unless the Greek economy enjoys a miraculous recovery."
That is in line with comments from Moritz Kraemer, head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor's on Thursday who said a haircut of 50-70 percent might be necessary.
Longer-dated Greek bonds are currently fully pricing in a 50 percent haircut in coupons and principal payments, said ING rate strategist Alessandro Giansanti, suggesting that yields can still rise further.
A final reading of euro zone inflation for March is expected to confirm a rise to 2.6 percent, keeping pressure on the ECB to tighten policy.


***
Non considerano mai che, in caso di haircut, le banche elleniche possiedono circa 48 MLD e i Fondi Pensione altri 22 MLD...

Le "riserve" scenderebbero drasticamente.
Poi è vero ... dopo la Guerra c'è la ricostruzione.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
What If Greek Debt Is Found Unsustainable



A recent statement by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble about reviewing the sustainability of the Greek debt has fueled speculation and triggered bond spreads to new highs, especially in bonds maturing before 2013.

It should be noted that when the €110b bailout package was agreed has May, Greek debt was found sustainable, underlying the Memorandum of Understanding.

Schäuble’s statement is very significant, because it is the first time that the reliability of the loan is disputed by a representative of the country with the largest participation in it. This has appalled markets and triggered hearsay.

The question now lies in what exactly could happen to the bond markets if a new report finds the Greek debt unsustainable.

At this point, there is a growing debate on whether Greece should proceed with the voluntary or not restructuring of its debt, with the extension of repayment period, haircut of nominal value or lowering of interest rates.

The problem in this case is that there is no intermediate mechanism to guarantee any smooth voluntary adjustment.

Contacted by Capital.gr recently, European Commission officials said that they should bring the matter to the Council of Ministers before any adjustment in the reform program is made, if Greece fails to follow its reform program in the 2nd quarter of 2011.


However, Wolfgang Schäuble is not willing to wait for Greece’s review in May, and heralds the revision of the understanding of the program, which is the sustainability of debt.

What has led to the change of main borrower’s stance? European lawmakers believe that the Greek government faces great difficulties in implementing its program, so “something must be done”.

If Portugal hadn’t asked for a rescue loan, things might be more difficult for Athens. In fact, German Finance Minister has sent a message to the Greek government that time is running out in the 2nd quarter of 2011, when a review of debt is completed.

However, Berlin hasn’t agreed on a single decision, as several “ideas” are under study by the German government.

(capital.gr)
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Greek PM: Greece To Detail New Measures After Easter



ATHENS -(Dow Jones)- Greece's government will fill out the details of a long-awaited medium-term budget plan after Easter, Prime Minister George Papandreou said Friday in a meeting with cabinet officials.
The plan, which was expected to be presented Friday, includes some EUR23 billion of further austerity measures that aim to slash Greece's deficit to below 1% of gross domestic product by the end of 2015.
"Immediately after Easter, the plan will be detailed and presented analytically with time frames for every ministry," Papandreou said in an address to the cabinet which was broadcast over the internet. "What we are now doing is the first complete discussion of this plan, of this road map."
"The plan will be completed in the next few weeks, filled out and, of course, will end up at the parliament," he added.
The apparent delay in releasing details of the plan hit Greek financial markets. At 0913 GMT, the Athens Stock Exchange was down 1.4% at 1,467.5 points, reversing a one percentage point gain before Papandreou's remarks.
 
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tommy271

Forumer storico
Greece Will Cut Spending, Sell Assets to Meet Debt Goal; Won't Restructure

By Marcus Bensasson - Apr 15, 2011 11:18 AM GMT+0200 Fri Apr 15 09:18:12 GMT 2011

Prime Minister George Papandreou reiterated that Greece won’t need to restructure its debt as he opened a Cabinet meeting to present measures aimed at achieving deficit-reduction goals.
The government’s medium-term fiscal policy plan will detail more than 22 billion euros ($32 billion) of deficit-trimming measures through 2015, most of them in spending cuts, according to Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou. The government is also expected to unveil plans to raise 15 billion euros by 2013 through state-asset sales.
“Greece’s problems won’t be solved by restructuring its debt but by restructuring the country,” Papandreou said at a Cabinet meeting today in Athens in comments broadcast live by state-run Net TV. “Even if with the wave of a wand the debt disappeared, Greece in a few years would have debts again without these reforms.”
Greece came close to defaulting on its debt last year, requiring a 110 billion-euro bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, after it emerged that the country had underreported the size of a budget deficit that reached 15.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2009.
The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year Greek debt instead of benchmark German bunds widened 37 basis points to a record yesterday after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Greece may have to renegotiate its debt burden. The spread rose 1 basis point to a new high of 986 basis points as of 11:51 a.m. in Athens.



Deficit Goals

The measures are aimed at meeting a target, agreed with the EU and IMF as a condition for the bailout, to cut the deficit to less than 3 percent of GDP by 2014 and a self-imposed goal of cutting the shortfall below 1 percent by 2015. The government is still aiming for a deficit of 7.4 percent of GDP this year, even as first-quarter revenue missed the target by 1.4 billion euros.
Greece will cut spending to 44 percent of GDP in 2015 from 53 percent in 2009, Papandreou said today. The plan will boost revenue to 43 percent of GDP in 2015 from 38 percent in 2009.
Details of the government’s proposals will be fleshed out before being presented to parliament next month, Papandreou said. The plan “is not just to tackle economic problems but also social and political problems,” he said.
Earlier today, Naftemporiki newspaper reported that the government may sell stakes in Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA and Public Power Corp SA (PPC) as part of its aim to raise 50 billion euros by 2015.





Deficit Revision

Papaconstantinou acknowledged in an April 1 interview that Greece’s 2010 deficit may be more than the government’s initial 9.4 percent projection. The figure, currently under review by EU statistics agency Eurostat, may be revised to above 10 percent, the Kathimerini newspaper reported on March 29.
Greece’s Public Debt Service Management Agency will today announce the amount of 13-week treasury bills it will sell next week. Greece has continued to hold regular T-bill auctions even as it remains frozen out of international bond markets.
 
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