Why Officials Avoid The Work Restructuring
The possibility of an uncontrollable contagion of debt crisis from Greece and Ireland into largest Euro area economies such as Spain and Italy and or Belgium continues to haunt both Euro-zone and the international monetary system.
The rather unexpected publication of S&P and Fitch estimations that the restructuring of Greek debt is not on the agenda, may hide some gloomy assessments of the sequences for Euro-zone and international banking system of a domino of defaults in major economies, following a declaration of Greek debt restructuring.
The rating agencies believe that this -25% rated- possibility is not on the agenda as the Euro-zone would jeopardize even its existence because of the debt contagion not only in Portugal and Ireland but also in Spain, Italy or even Belgium, whose bond spreads widen sharply recently.
Weekly newspaper Kefaleo reveals that the total opposition of European Central Bank against a possible restructuring of Greek debt hides the results of a simulation of such a development in the whole Euro area.
Servaas Deroose, the head of troika representatives involved in the Greek fiscal program, confirmed that Euro-zone’s biggest concern regarding the restructuring of Debt is the contagion of the crisis through the pressures in the markets, during a press conference in Belgium.
He claimed that Euro-zone has largely overcome the risk of domino effect, as the Italian and Spanish bond spreads have narrowed in recent months, with the exception of the last two weeks. According to the European Commission official, there has been a detachment of Italian and Spanish bond spreads from Greek, Irish and Portuguese, while Europe adopts a comprehensive strategy to address the problems.
Regarding Greek debt, he explained why a restructuring would work out, keeping the country out of capital markets for many years.
In this context, there is a growing discussion in Brussels about a broader political “solution”, which would commit Greece, Ireland and Portugal in a multi-year (at least five-year) Memorandum of Understanding, removing the threat of a default.
At the same time, PIMCO chief El Arian insists on a scenario of Greek debt restructuring, while Goldman Sachs recalls a statement on September 3, 2010, that it gave a “buy” rating on Greek 30-year bond with a target-price of 65 cents per cent, when the nominal value of 30-year bond was 54 cents per euro. Now, the price has fallen below 50 cents.
(capital.gr)