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Greece May Restructure Next Year, Deutsche Bank’s Ruskin Says: Tom Keene

By Catarina Saraiva and Tom Keene - May 10, 2011 5:43 PM GMT+0200 Tue May 10 15:43:40 GMT 2011


A restructuring of Greece’s sovereign debt will happen eventually and may occur next year, according to Deutsche Bank AG’s Alan Ruskin.
“Eventually Greece has to restructure,” Ruskin, global head of Group-of-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York, said in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “It’s just a question of first ring-fencing all the potential losers. What you’re going to get now is the idea of Greece getting funding now so it won’t have to go to the market in 2012.”
Banks that own Greek debt and the European Central Bank would likely lose capital in a restructuring, according to Ruskin, who said such an overhaul may occur after France’s national elections next year.
Greece, which accepted a 110 billion euro ($158 billion) bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund last year, may receive additional assistance, the Athens newspaper Kathimerini and Germany’s Handelsblatt reported.
The Greek two-year yield dropped 43 basis points, or 0.43 percentage point, to 25.18 percent after declining by as much as 95 basis points, the most since May 3. The yield rose 27 basis points yesterday after Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s debt rating two levels to B, citing the likelihood of a need for restructuring.
While euro-region officials said after an unscheduled May 6 meeting in Luxembourg that Greece needs “a further adjustment program,” Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters today in Berlin that it’s too early to decide.
“In the meantime the idea is to keep a gun to the likes of Greece’s head so they actually get their fiscal house in order,” Ruskin said.



(Bloomberg)


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Altro analista, altro giro ...
 
Ultima modifica:
Merkel: decisions after EU-IMF inspectors' report on Greece



BERLIN (ANA-MPA - G. Pappas) In a message addressed to Greeks on Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed the benefits of strict adherence to the EU-IMF economic stabilisation programme for Greece.

In a press conference for foreign correspondents, Merkel acknowledged the "brave efforts" made by the Greek government so far but emphasised the need to carry out the programme and the privatisations agreed.

"We are aware that this is not an easy road," she said in a message to Greeks, while stressing her belief that the country would emerge stronger at the end.

Replying to an ANA-MPA question, Merkel said that Greece was not "at the same place as a year ago" and noted that there had been a great many reforms and brave steps by the Greek government.

"The municipal elections showed that the majority of Greeks support the government. We knew clearly that this will be a difficult road and that it will not last just a few months," she said.

She pointed to the decisions of the European Council last March to reduce the interest rate "in exchange" for the Greek government's promise to carry out a privatisation programme amounting to 50 billion euro.

Distancing herself from the rampant speculation in recent days that a Greek default was imminent, the German chancellor stressed that she would wait until the report of EU-IMF inspectors provided specific figures before stating a position or deciding "whether anything needs to be done".

"We are not doing Greece any good by speculating wildly and I do not mean journalists, I speak as a politician," Merkel emphasised. "It is neither for the good of Greece nor for the good of Europe," she stressed.


While giving assurances of Germany's solidarity on a Eurozone level, she noted that Greece's "willingness to return to the right path" was a condition for this solidarity. Merkel stressed the need to "rebuild the foundations correctly" in order to get out of difficulties and not simply show solidarity without any changes taking place in Greece.

"We have a vital interest in having all European countries on the right economic path," she added.


The Chancellor is due to meet European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso in Berlin on Wednesday and the head of the European Council Herman van Rompuy on Thursday.

(ana.gr)

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La Merkel europeista ...
 
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Germany’s Schaeuble tells Conservative deputies that no decision on extending Greece aid before report from EU and IMF Commission – MPs say

Tue, May 10 2011, 16:18 GMT | Forex Live
By: Gerry Davies

EUR/USD sits at 1.4350 in comotose trade.
 
Schaeuble-no decision on Greece before EU/IMF report






BERLIN | Tue May 10, 2011 12:26pm EDT



BERLIN May 10 (Reuters) - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told conservative members of parliament on Tuesday that there will be no decision on further aid for Greece before EU and IMF officials report on the implementation of its existing rescue plan, meeting participants told Reuters.
Schaeuble also told the group of conservative deputies that it was conceivable that the assistance to Greece could involve extending loan repayment periods and cutting interest rates.
Schaeuble responded to critics in the conservatives by saying everything would be better than Greece quitting the euro zone.
 
A questi prezzi, la BCE potrebbe benissimo ricomprarsi una bella fetta di bond e cancellarli dalla piazza, senza star lì a farla tanto lunga
 
A questi prezzi, la BCE potrebbe benissimo ricomprarsi una bella fetta di bond e cancellarli dalla piazza, senza star lì a farla tanto lunga

In parte lo ha già fatto.
Ma non è il suo compito...
Al limite potrebbe operare l'EFSF, se messo in condizioni di agire.

Si tratterebbe di prestare soldi alla Grecia per compiere l'operazione o farla direttamente.
Non è semplice nè facile però, i titoli schizzerebbero subito verso l'alto.
La soluzione migliore sarebbe l'accesso del EFSF sul secondario con acquisti a piccole tranche nei momenti di tensione.
 
coraggio o incoscienza

Con questi segnali che sembrano volgere ad ulteriori aiuti alla grecia, sono entrato con 6K sulla 2024, cedola 4,70% al prezzo di 50,50 e con 10k sulla 2026 cedola 5,30 al prezzo di 52,09. Per far questo acquisto ho venduto 10k btp 2037. Stesso importo speso e incassato.
Percentuale di grecia in portafoglio passata al 16%.
un vostro parere, grazie......
 
Con questi segnali che sembrano volgere ad ulteriori aiuti alla grecia, sono entrato con 6K sulla 2024, cedola 4,70% al prezzo di 50,50 e con 10k sulla 2026 cedola 5,30 al prezzo di 52,09. Per far questo acquisto ho venduto 10k btp 2037. Stesso importo speso e incassato.
Percentuale di grecia in portafoglio passata al 16%.
un vostro parere, grazie......

Quando i prezzi si appiattiscono sempre meglio ridurre la duration.
 
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