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tommy271

Forumer storico
Euro zone periphery under pressure over new risks






Mon May 23, 2011 8:13am EDT

* Spanish, Greek, Italian bond yields spike on concerns * Italy hit by S&P outlook cut, to bring forward measures * Spain hit by govt poll wipe-out, fears of deficit conflict * Greek cabinet debates more cuts amid loan uncertainty


By Kirsten Donovan and Giuseppe Fonte


LONDON/ROME (Reuters) - Financial markets piled pressure on peripheral euro zone countries on Monday as investors worried about heightened risks in Spain and Greece and fresh concerns over Italy.
A weekend wipe-out of Spain's ruling Socialists in regional and municipal elections raised fears of potential clashes over deficit curbs between central and local government as Madrid fights to avoid having to seek a bailout like Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
Italy, which has the euro zone's biggest debt pile in absolute terms, was hit by credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's decision on Saturday to cut its outlook to "negative" from "stable."

Government sources said Rome would bring forward to next month planned decrees to slice 35 to 40 billion euros off the budget deficit in 2013 and 2014, in an effort to reassure markets.
"We've kept things in order and the bases are all there for us to continue to do so," Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti said.
The premiums charged by investors to hold Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds rather than safe-haven German bunds rose to their highest levels since January, at 186 and 261 basis points respectively.
The euro briefly fell below a key support level at $1.40, hitting a two-month low against the dollar, before stabilizing.
"The key point is that the crisis seems to be taking hold even of peripheral countries regarded as solid," said WestLB rate strategist Michael Leister.
"Sentiment is that there appears to be no end to it now Italy is being scrutinized by the ratings agencies."


NO SURRENDER


Stratospheric Greek debt yields rose still further -- with 10-year bonds yielding more than 17 percent -- amid uncertainty over a crucial 12 billion euro aid disbursement next month which is vital to meet 13.4 billion euros in funding needs, including debt redemptions, in mid-June and avoid default.
The Greek yields do not reflect Athens' real borrowing costs because the country is surviving on IMF/EU loans and trading in Greek bonds is thin, but it is a barometer of market anxiety about some form of debt restructuring.
The Greek cabinet met to discuss new emergency deficit cutting measures to try to persuade international lenders to keep aid funds flowing, and convince investors the country can cope without a restructuring.
"We are in the middle of an ongoing battle. We will not surrender. We will do whatever it takes to make sure Greece stands on its own feet," Prime Minister George Papandreou told voters last week, preparing them for still harsher austerity.
Visiting inspectors from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund are withholding judgment on Greece's compliance with its rescue program until they see progress on spending cuts, revenue increases and stalled privatizations.
Among planned new belt-tightening measures were deeper cuts in public sector wages, more consumer tax increases and even the taboo issue of dismissing full-time civil servants.
The chairman of the 17-nation Eurogroup of finance ministers of countries sharing the single currency, Jean-Claude Juncker, said on Saturday that Greece has fallen behind targets and should set up a trustee institution for privatizations.
Market sentiment has darkened due to public disputes among the IMF, the ECB and Juncker over whether some form of debt "reprofiling" or "soft restructuring" should be brought into the policy mix.

"CREDIT EVENT?"


The European Commission's top economic official, Olli Rehn, sought to play down talk by Juncker of a "soft restructuring" that scared markets after last week's Eurogroup meeting. Rehn said any relief from bondholders would be on a voluntary basis.
"A voluntary extension of loan maturities, so-called reprofiling or rescheduling on a voluntary basis, would also be examined on the condition that it would not create a credit event," Rehn told reporters.
Market experts say any attempt to modify debt maturities while avoiding a so-called credit event that would trigger default insurance payouts and downgrades by ratings agencies would be likely to face legal challenge.
Severe austerity measures imposed under the IMF/EU bailouts or to avert a bailout are taking a high political toll on governments across Europe.
Spain's ruling Socialists suffered their worst election result since the restoration of democracy in 1978, slumping to 27 percent of the vote, 10 percentage points behind the conservative opposition Popular Party.
Italy's center-right government lost ground in local elections last week, and a weekend opinion poll in Greece showed that for the first time since Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou took office in 2009, the center-right opposition New Democracy party has drawn level with the ruling Socialist party.
The unpopularity of rescuing euro zone debtors was reflected in another disastrous regional poll result for German Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right coalition on Sunday.
Her Christian Democrats slumped to just 20 percent in Bremen, Germany's smallest federal state, while the liberal Free Democrats, junior partners in government, scored just 2.6 percent and lost their seats in the local assembly.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Ha detto il contrario un'ora prima...dimmi te se non è un teatrino...:lol:

Cmq sto pensando di uscire dagli ultimi 10k di grecia che ho,e investirli in Perpetue,visto che se tutto và bene (e non sono convinto)i prezzi dei Tds Hellas come min ci metteranno 3-5 anni per arrivare a prezzi decenti,con una p ci metterei molto meno e non avrei monnezza nel Ptf.
L'unica cosa che mi frena è che se la Grecia Defaulta si porta dietro tutto P comprese..

Non saprei se si è trattato di un problema di interpretazione.
La versione in inglese era la stessa tradotta in italiano.
 

EDESMO

GGB: Est!, Est?, Est.....
Grecia, Ue non discute ipotesi ristrutturazione debito - Rehn

lunedì 23 maggio 2011 12:29

VIENNA, 23 maggio (Reuters) - L'Unione europea non sta prendendo in considerazione l'ipotesi di una ristrutturazione del debito pubblico greco, mentre prenderebbe in esame una riorganizzazione su base volontaria se non comportasse a una crisi del credito.
Lo dice alla stampa il commissario agli Affari economici e monetari Olli Rehn, dichiarandosi inoltre fiducioso che i paesi della zona euro e gli altri contribuenti al pacchetto di salvataggio greco proseguano nella strada del sostegno ad Atene.

Grecia, Ue mette in dubbio obiettivi privatizzazione

lunedì 23 maggio 2011 12:10

VIENNA, 23 maggio (Reuters) - Bruxelles dubita che Atene riesca a centrare gli ambiziosi obiettivi stabiliti dal programma di privatizzazioni, che prevede per i prossimi anni la dismissione di asset del valore di 50 miliardi di euro.
Lo dice alla stampa il commissario Ue agli Affari economici e monetari Olli Rehn.
"Riteniamo che la Grecia non sia in grado di privatizzare asset per 50 miliardi di euro - oltre il 20% del proprio prodotto interno lordo - nei prossimi anni" dichiara.
Secondo il commissario, inoltre, Atene non ha fatto sufficienti progressi sulla strada del consolidamento di bilancio in modo che le sia possibile tornare a raccogliere sul mercato.
***
Post precedente, qui in italiano.
veramente a me quello delle 12:10 era parso in forte contrasto con quello delle 12:29

ora la rettifica chiarisce :up:
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
veramente a me quello delle 12:10 era parso in forte contrasto con quello delle 12:29

ora la rettifica chiarisce :up:

Comunque la rettifica è strana.
D'altra parte diversi analisti avevano fatto osservare che 50 MLD erano tanti da privatizzare in quanto corrispondevano al 20% del PIL.
Comunque, episodio secondario nel sirtaki delle notizie.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Greece discusses fiscal plan, lenders' pressure up






By George Georgiopoulos
ATHENS | Mon May 23, 2011 8:44am EDT



ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou discussed new emergency measures with his cabinet on Monday to cut the deficit, keen to convince lenders Athens can deal with a debt crisis without a restructuring.
A raft of new austerity measures being studied include deeper cuts in public sector wages, more consumer tax increases, and even the taboo issue of dismissing full-time civil servants.
Papandreou told ministers there was no stepping back from the painful steps that must be taken to fix the economy's woes.
"We are taking the necessary decisions to avoid the danger and to change the country," government spokesman George Petalotis quoted Papandreou as telling his cabinet. "The battle goes on, and in this fight no cowardice is allowed."
At stake is a 12 billion euro aid tranche under the EU/IMF bailout agreed last year, as well as additional loans needed to plug a funding gap next year as the overborrowed country is unlikely to return to bond markets in 2012.
On Monday the yield spread on 10-year Greek bonds over German bunds widened to 1,427 basis points, a new high. Two-year paper was yielding 26.8 percent.
With tough austerity medicine to quickly correct past profligacy knocking the wind out of Greece's economy, markets believe some form of debt restructuring is inevitable. But such a move would be anathema to policymakers, especially at the ECB.
Instead, Frankfurt and Brussels are urging strict compliance with the bailout plan, meaning state divestments, reforms and more measures to shore up budget revenues and lower the government's wage bill.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn continued to press Athens to redouble its fiscal efforts and press on with privatizations. "These are a matter of urgency," Rehn told a conference on European integration in Vienna.
Rehn, the EU's top economic official, also said maturities on Greek debt could be extended on a voluntary basis as long as this does not create a credit event.
Belt-tightening to get Greece into a primary surplus is crucial to stem its ballooning debt but critics, including the conservative political opposition, say the policy mix is wrong, hindering growth that would help the economy out of the debt mess.
Worried about the fallout from a default, the chief executive of Europe's largest insurer, Allianz, an investor in Greek debt, on Monday warned governments not to push Athens toward insolvency by blocking further aid to Greece.
"We need an industrialization plan for Greece, a type of Marshall Plan. European labor and production need to be shifted to the country," CEO Michael Diekmann told German daily Bild.


CUTTING TAX EXEMPTIONS


Newspapers said on Monday the cabinet will examine steps such as halving a current 12,000-euro income tax exemption, and cuts in other exemptions on medical expenses and interest on home loans, moves certain to squeeze take-home pay for millions of workers and pensioners.
Other measures may include slapping a one-off levy on high incomes, possibly on those earning more than 80,000 euros ($112,500) annually, and a tax on large real estate holdings.
The government is also considering a uniform value added tax (VAT) rate of 18 or 19 percent for all goods and services versus a current regime that ranges from 13 to 23 percent.
If adopted, the move will mean higher costs for foods, electricity bills and transport but some relief for other consumer goods such as cars, furniture, appliances and apparel as retailers are hard-hit by the three-year recession.
The government is steadily losing public support in the face of harsh austerity. An opinion poll on Saturday showed 80 percent of Greeks would not accept more measures and the ruling Socialists tied with the opposition for the first time since their October 2009 election victory.
"An explosive situation is building. People feel that the going is getting very tough," Dimitris Mavros, managing director of pollster MRB, which conducted the survey, told Reuters.
 

Comandante Gerard

Forumer storico
Che succede col default?

What happens when Greece defaults – Telegraph Blogs

Quest´analisi prospetta uno scenario talmente catastrofico che non so se nemmeno gaudente riuscirebbe a far di meglio...:lol:

It is when, not if. Financial markets merely aren’t sure whether it’ll be tomorrow, a month’s time, a year’s time, or two years’ time (it won’t be longer than that). Given that the ECB has played the “final card” it employed to force a bailout upon the Irish – threatening to bankrupt the country’s banking sector – presumably we will now see either another Greek bailout or default within days.
What happens when Greece defaults. Here are a few things:
- Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent.
- The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece.
- The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks.
- To prevent Greek depositors from rioting on the streets, Argentina-2002-style (when the Argentinian president had to flee by helicopter from the roof of the presidential palace to evade a mob of such depositors), the Greek government will declare a curfew, perhaps even general martial law.
- Greece will redenominate all its debts into “New Drachmas” or whatever it calls the new currency (this is a classic ploy of countries defaulting)
- The New Drachma will devalue by some 30-70 per cent (probably around 50 per cent, though perhaps more), effectively defaulting 0n 50 per cent or more of all Greek euro-denominated debts.
- The Irish will, within a few days, walk away from the debts of its banking system.
- The Portuguese government will wait to see whether there is chaos in Greece before deciding whether to default in turn.
- A number of French and German banks will make sufficient losses that they no longer meet regulatory capital adequacy requirements.
- The European Central Bank will become insolvent, given its very high exposure to Greek government debt, and to Greek banking sector and Irish banking sector debt.
- The French and German governments will meet to decide whether (a) to recapitalise the ECB, or (b) to allow the ECB to print money to restore its solvency. (Because the ECB has relatively little foreign currency-denominated exposure, it could in principle print its way out, but this is forbidden by its founding charter. On the other hand, the EU Treaty explicitly, and in terms, forbids the form of bailouts used for Greece, Portugal and Ireland, but a little thing like their being blatantly illegal hasn’t prevented that from happening, so it’s not intrinsically obvious that its being illegal for the ECB to print its way out will prove much of a hurdle.)
- They will recapitalise, and recapitalise their own banks, but declare an end to all bailouts.
- There will be carnage in the market for Spanish banking sector bonds, as bondholders anticipate imposed debt-equity swaps.
- This assumption will prove justified, as the Spaniards choose to over-ride the structure of current bond contracts in the Spanish banking sector, recapitalising a number of banks via debt-equity swaps.
- Bondholders will take the Spanish Banking Sector to the European Court of Human Rights (and probably other courts, also), claiming violations of property rights. These cases won’t be heard for years. By the time they are finally heard, no-one will care.
- Attention will turn to the British banks. Then we shall see…
 

dierre

Forumer storico
Buongiorno a tutti,

Mi collego solo adesso ed ho visto lo spread da paura 1447....

Tommy cosa è successo di cosi negativo???
 

ficodindia

Forumer storico
Il panico domina il mercato dei bond greci.

Tuttavia il bond "spazzatura" HELLENIC 3,9% 28/8/2011 quota a 98,59, in leggero guadagno. Strano, molto strano .. il mercato che confuta sonoramente l'affermazione secondo cui:"Given that the ECB has played the “final card” it employed to force a bailout upon the Irish – threatening to bankrupt the country’s banking sector – presumably we will now see either another Greek bailout or default within days". Il resto di questa analisi sono sciocchezze.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100010332/what-happens-when-greece-defaults/

Ricordare sempre la regola aurea del default: tutti i titoli del debitore diventano esigibili ed il loro prezzo si appiattisce al volore probabile di recupero.
 
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