EU to seek bank commitment to hold Greek debt: sources
 	 		         
                      
        
             By 
Jan Strupczewski
                  BRUSSELS |          Thu May 19, 2011 8:24am EDT
         
     
 BRUSSELS (Reuters) - 
The main option under consideration for Greece  now is a voluntary deal by investors to maintain their Greek bond  holdings over the period of another EU/IMF program from 2011 to 2014,  euro zone sources said.
  "Since Monday that is the main  option under consideration," one source with insight into the  discussions on Greek debt said, referring to the Monday meeting of euro zone finance ministers.
"Anything,  'soft' or 'hard', in terms of debt restructuring that could eventually  trigger a credit event, is off the table," said the source, adding euro  zone officials had consulted rating agencies on what action would  trigger a credit event.
A credit  event would force the paying out of credit default swaps (CDS),  instruments that provide investors with insurance against a default.
A  voluntary deal with investors could be part of a new package of Greek  reforms and austerity and more EU/IMF funding from 2011 to 2014, the  euro zone source said. "We hope to have an agreement by the end of  June," the source said.
The source  noted that such an option would include not only not selling down banks'  positions held in Greek debt, but also actually buying some Greek bonds  to replace issues that matured over the length of the programme.
The  current Greek programme, under which Athens is to get 110 billion euros  ($155 billion) in emergency loans, was agreed in May 2010 for three  years. But Greece has fallen behind schedule with reforms and meeting  austerity targets and is unlikely to be able to return to markets next  year as originally planned.
Most  market participants believe Greece's dire finances will force it to  restructure its debt at some point. A Reuters poll last week showed that  among 28 mainly sell-side economists and 15 fund managers, only three  thought a restructuring could be avoided.
There  is great pressure on Greece from the euro zone to announce additional  fiscal consolidation steps, structural reforms and to move quickly ahead  with privatization to raise additional funds, sources said.
The  chairman of euro zone finance ministers Jean-Claude Juncker said on  Tuesday that as a last resort, if privatization and additional austerity  steps do not work, a soft restructuring of Greek debt could be  considered.
Such a soft restructuring could involve the extension of maturities of Greek debt.
"The  reprofiling we talked about, and nothing is decided, would be a  voluntary move from private bondholders and would essentially consist of  a swap between existing obligations and obligations with a longer  maturity," said a second euro zone source with knowledge of the talks.
But  the first source said a maturity extension, even if voluntary, would  still decrease its net present value and so trigger a credit event.
This  could be dangerous, the first source said, because it was not clear  what chain reaction would follow in terms of contagion and liquidity in  the financial sector.
The first  source said that the position of the European Central Bank was that in  the case of a credit event triggering the pay-outs of Greek CDSs, the  ECB would stop accepting Greek bonds as collateral, putting Greek bank  liquidity in question.
A voluntary  deal to maintain exposure to Greece would not be a credit event and the  European Central Bank would back it, the source said.
"It  is clear the ECB believes that Greece can do without debt reprofiling,  but with extra money," a third euro zone source familiar with the  discussions said.
A fourth source  also confirmed that the main option under discussion now was for  investors to maintain, on a voluntary basis, their exposure to Greece.
Economic  and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said on Wednesday that a  deal for investors to maintain exposure to Greece was being considered.
This would be similar to the case of 
Portugal,  which has to seek such an agreement as part of its bailout package from  the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
"We  can see if a Vienna type initiative of maintaining exposure by banks in  Greece could be helpful and in that context we will also examine the  feasibility of a voluntary rescheduling and I underline the word  voluntary," Rehn said.
The Vienna  Initiative was an agreement of the European Central Bank, the European  Bank for Reconstruction and Development, regulators and banks with  subsidiaries in central and eastern Europe from January 2009.
The  initiative, launched at the height of the financial crisis triggered by  the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers, meant parent bank  groups publicly committed to maintain their exposures and recapitalize  their subsidiaries in central and eastern European countries as part of  financial aid packages from the European Union and the IMF.
Of  EU members, Latvia, Hungary and Romania received such packages and IMF  data shows that the commitments of banks under the initiative have been  honored.
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Lo stato della discussione e le varie ipotesi sul tavolo.