Alerts History
* 01-Jul-2015 16:17:08 - 15 OUT OF 21 BIG U.S. INVESTORS SURVEYED BY REUTERS EXPECT GREEKS TO SAY "YES" TO BAILOUT
POLL-Big U.S. investors expect Greeks to vote in favor of bailout - RTRS
01-Jul-2015 16:17:16
By Tariro Mzezewa and Ross Kerber
June 30 (Reuters) - U.S. investors expect Greek citizens to
back a cash-for-reforms deal proposed by the nation's creditors
in a July 5 referendum, according to a Reuters poll conducted
this week.
Reuters spoke to large U.S. money managers across several
asset classes, and 15 of 21 said they expected Greek voters to
answer yes to a question whether Athens should accept the
proposal submitted by the European Commission, the European
Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund on June 25.
[ID:nL8N0ZC1Y3]
“The Greek people must be very scared at this stage,” said
David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds, which
manages $800 billion in assets. “Things will get increasingly
dire in Greece as the week goes on and if the Greek people vote
'no,' it will be a somewhat catastrophic situation.”
Not one investor interviewed believed the Greeks would
reject the proposal, even though polling in Greece currently
suggests that may well happen. Polls suggest citizens there
oppose the bailout, though a breakdown of results shows that the
gap has narrowed since the banks closed and capital controls
were imposed. [ID:nL8N0ZH0CT]
"The arguments in favor of a 'yes' vote grow every minute
the ATM machines don’t dispense money," said David Kotok, chief
investment officer at Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, Florida.
At 6 p.m. ET (2200 GMT) Tuesday, Greece missed the deadline
for a 1.6 million euro ($1.8 billion) payment to the IMF, making
it the first developed country to do so.
A "yes" vote, investors said, may quell the ructions in
markets that have emerged as the crisis has come to a head in
the last week and as the possibility of Greece leaving the euro
zone, or a "Grexit," has increased. [ID:nL5N0ZE0EF]
Although the markets may find stability in the result of a
"yes" vote or be minimally affected, it will force all parties
back to the drawing table and further lengthen the process of
reaching a deal.
“A 'yes' vote will eliminate some instability, but we have
to expect it will initiate a long process of further
negotiation,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist and
director of asset allocation at Ridgeworth Investments in
Atlanta, which has $50 billion in assets under management.
Six investors interviewed were either not sure or did not
say whether they thought the vote would pass. Most believed the
reaction in markets worldwide would be contained, because of
years of efforts by banks and funds to reduce exposure to Greece
and the monetary stimulus efforts undertaken by the European
Central Bank. [ID:nL8N0Z82C3]
“I think the markets are indicating that whatever happens,
the rest of the world will not be greatly adversely affected by
the decision,” said Margie Patel, managing director and senior
portfolio manager at Wells Capital Management, which has $351
billion in assets under management.
A "yes" vote has the potential to end Prime Minister Alexis
Tsipras’ time in office, according to investors. The prime
minister, who is against some terms of the proposed austerity
measures, has urged citizens to vote against the bailout, even
as he continued to negotiate for better terms.
The looming possibility of a "no" vote for some stands as a
buying opportunity.
"There's certainly going to be volatility and that would be
the time to add to European equities," said Audrey Kaplan, head
of the international equity team at Federated Investors, which
has about $4 billion under management and is overweight European
stocks.
"The (quantitative easing) plan is nothing short of
spectacular for European investments and Greece is not big
enough to derail the growth."
(Reporting by Ross Kerber, David Gaffen, Tariro Mzezawa,
Gertrude Chavez, Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
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Keywords: EUROZONE GREECE/POLL
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