Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1

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Company profile
Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes, GOL, is the largest low-cost
and low-fare airline in Latin America, with more than 800 daily
flights that connect the most important cities in Brazil and
major destinations in America. Along with TAM (not covered),
the company shares a large portion of the Brazilian passenger
air traffic.
Headwinds continue
We are maintaining a Sell recommendation on the issuer as
the ongoing industry consolidation and depreciated BRL have
deteriorated the financial situation of the company significantly.
Despite the recent reduction in capacity, GOL is still far
from resuming healthy levels of profitability. The high level of
inflation in the Brazilian economy and prospect of a weaker
BRL complicates the outlook of a recovery as they might likely
jeopardise attempts to keep costs in check. Luckily, the company
has assets it can spin off, such as the Smiles mileage
programme, which should provide adequate liquidity to the
company over the coming years.
Infrastructure developments for the next football World Cup
and the 2016 Olympics, which will take place in Brazil, should
provide some tailwinds to the company. However, 2013
should be a challenging year for the company unless oil prices
fall substantially from current levels. We continue to recommend
selling positions in GOL

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------------------------2010 2011 2012

Revenues (BRLmn) 6'979 7'539 8'104
Op Expenses (BRLmn) 6'281 7'784 9'009
EBITDA (BRLmn) 1'535 656 258
EBITDA Margin 22.0% 8.71% 3.18%
Net Income (BRLmn) 214 -773 -1'513
Cash & Equ (BRLmn) 1'978 2'348 1'585
Total Debt (BRLmn) 3'741 4'991 5'191
Net Debt (BRLmn) 1'763 2'643 3'606
Net Debt / EBITDAR 1.1 4.0 14.0
EBITDA / Fin Expenses 2.9 0.4 -0.8​
 
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