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Moody's downgrades Woolworths to Baa1 from A3; outlook stable
Global Credit Research - 28 Aug 2015
Sydney, August 28, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to Baa1 stable from A3 negative Woolworths Limited's issuer rating and senior unsecured notes. The MTN program rating was also downgraded to (P)Baa1 from (P)A3.
The ratings outlook is stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
"The downgrade reflects Woolworths' weaker-than-expected results for the fiscal year ended 28 June 2015 due to the operational underperformance of its Australian Food and Liquor, General Merchandise, and Home Improvement segments over the past 12 months, as well as the subdued business outlook", says Ian Chitterer, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.
"The deterioration in Woolworths' credit profile over fiscal 2015 year has exceeded our expectations, and adjusted debt to EBITDA at 3.5x was in line with our threshold for the A3 rating," says Chitterer.
"But, the difficulties that Woolworths is experiencing in arresting the negative momentum in comparable-store sales -- combined with our expectation of continued shelf-price deflation due to the need to address pricing competitiveness relative to Coles and Aldi -- will result in its key credit metrics for fiscal 2016 falling outside the tolerance levels for the A3 rating," says Chitterer, who is lead analyst for Woolworths.
"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Woolworths will maintain credit metrics in line with a Baa1 rating, while its transformation plans are actioned in an environment where its shelf prices are likely to come under increasing downward pressure", adds Chitterer.
"Furthermore, the trend in comparable-store sales growth at its Australian Food and Liquor business has been negative, falling to -0.9% from 3.5% in 3Q 2014, with July and August 2015 continuing to track at the same level," says Chitterer.
Looking ahead, Moody's also expects that Woolworths' debt/EBITDA for 2016 will weaken from the 3.5x reported in 2015 to a level that is in line with a Baa1 rating.
The ratings outlook could change to negative if comparable-store sales in the core Australian Food and Liquor business remain negative for a prolonged period and the Home Improvement and General Merchandise divisions continue to underperform.
The rating could be downgraded if comparable-store sales in the Australian Food and Liquor business worsen, losses in the Home Improvement business continue to increase, and the General Merchandise division keeps underperforming. An indicator of downward rating pressure includes debt/EBITDA exceeding 4x.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Retail Industry published in June 2011. Please see the Credit Policy page on
www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
Woolworths Limited operates various retail formats, primarily supermarkets, liquor and petrol, as well as general merchandising, apparel and home improvement.